Posted:
#1
I would really like to be in a better mood right now. I had one of those days where your original picks go pretty well, but then you sap your account with second half bets or ill-fated plays you made because you were having a good morning, etc.
Ugh.
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad for the wins I got, and I do thank the Gambling Gods for it. But I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't frustrated right now.
That said, let's see what I gleaned from today.
Well, right now I'm gleaning that this NBC highlight show is worthless. I'd learned that before today, I suppose, but it's like a trip back in time. To an era before things like information was good. It's like, here's a TD, some guy scored it at some point during the game and here's the final score. Fantastic.
Let's start with the morning, because the morning was a happier time for me.
I'm not surprised that Pittsburgh lost given the way they played, though they really shouldn't have given that game away. But turnovers and some poor choices by Ben late, engh, it happens. Just like with the Eagles last week, I think that team will be fine. Hopefully we'll get a little value with them, but being such a public team now after winning it all, we probably won't. But what we learned today with them is something I think we already knew, you beat that team through the air, not on the ground. Think of that going forward. I also think this whole year for Pittsburgh is going to be a learning year for Big Ben. I think they take a step back to take a step forward. I'm just not sure how big a step back that step will be. Whether it will be all the way out of the playoffs or just to 10-6.
Cincy's defense still doesn't impress me. Either running or passing.
Detroit finally scored some points. I didn't see the game, but maybe, just maybe, it's time to think about their totals. Last year they had some weeks there that were great for overs, we might get some of those again.
I'm glad GB won a game, they won't win many this year and so I think this was good for them.
I think Indy is for Jacksonville like NE was for Indy for years. I think it's become a mental thing. They know exactly how to play them, but they simply can't beat them in Indy. I didn't see it happening today, I don't see it happening any time in the near future without Manning melting down. On these teams, though, I think we learned that Indy is basically the team they've been for the last few years and that Jax seems to be the team they were last year. That should be good for at least 10 wins for Jax and at least 11 for Indy.
Minnesota just did what they do again today. Today they probably should have won, really. But last week they should have lost so it seems these things even out. Again I'll say it, Minnesota is going to run over people--literally--this year. They likely will not blow out anyone but the dregs of the league, but they are going to be able to run the ball and control the clock.
Chicago, hey, they did what they had to do. Big gut-check kind of win for them. This really seems like their division to lose now that they're 3-0 in it and have a road win vs. the only team that should rightly contest them. Let down next week?
Don't look now, and it may mean nothing, but Washington showed up for the first time this season today. Just hear it in the background. When they're 100% and once they get on the same page, they do have talent. No reason to lump them in with the bottom of the barrel.
Carolina may have saved their season, but I'm still not sold yet. Not without a healthy Steve Smith.
Tampa. Two things. Their staff loves this Gradkowski (sp?) character. If he comes in I'll still look to bet against them because their line sucks and without a running game, what are they going to do. But I would prefer the known quantity of a not-so-good Simms back there rather than an unknown.
Two, I saw John Gruden on one of the morning shows this morning and that guy has become a walking ad for sunscreen. Seriously, parents, teach your kids the value of protecting yourself from the sun. Chucky is in his 40s and his face is starting to look like a f**king lizard. It's creepy and I don't want to see him when he's 60.
All right, enough of this nonsense, let's talk about the Cleveland Browns. Yes, they should have won, but they're a young team and this is what happens. Charlie Frye makes a key mistake at a key time. Others don't execute. It happens. But they should be proud and Romeo should be emboldened by letting this team come out of the box throwing. Even without Ruben teams are going to make Frye beat them. He has the talent around him to do it. They need to let him. He has to learn. If you want to write this team off, please do, but as the season goes on they're going to start making people some money and I intend to be one of them.
Oh, and what you saw today was an admission that Kellen Winslow was right. I don't like his mouth either, but that they threw the ball today and did what they did suggests to me that Romeo has the right handle on this team.
Philly and Seattle are slowly becoming the same team and--as an Eagle fan--I don't like it. Seattle isn't the same team they were last year. That running game isn't there without Hutch. It's just a fact. But that passing game is going to be better with Branch because they can go four wide. This will also help Alexander by spreading the field and giving him some lanes. But Alexander isn't going to come close to the stats he had last year. And I think Seattle is going to have to win by throwing the ball. Even though they have a good defense, they are going to have to throw the ball and put up points to win. Bet accordingly.
Same with Philly and I think we learned with the Eagles today that though their defense is good, it's not great. Great teams do not let good or bad teams come back from the dead and though the Eagles offense eventually kept the game out of reach today, their defense in the second half was soft. I'm going to cut them a little slack because they were all the way across the country and up by 21 at the time. But I'm not happy about their performance today and because the offense can't kill the clock with a running game, this team, like Seattle, will need to win via the air and via points
Ugh.
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad for the wins I got, and I do thank the Gambling Gods for it. But I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't frustrated right now.
That said, let's see what I gleaned from today.
Well, right now I'm gleaning that this NBC highlight show is worthless. I'd learned that before today, I suppose, but it's like a trip back in time. To an era before things like information was good. It's like, here's a TD, some guy scored it at some point during the game and here's the final score. Fantastic.
Let's start with the morning, because the morning was a happier time for me.
I'm not surprised that Pittsburgh lost given the way they played, though they really shouldn't have given that game away. But turnovers and some poor choices by Ben late, engh, it happens. Just like with the Eagles last week, I think that team will be fine. Hopefully we'll get a little value with them, but being such a public team now after winning it all, we probably won't. But what we learned today with them is something I think we already knew, you beat that team through the air, not on the ground. Think of that going forward. I also think this whole year for Pittsburgh is going to be a learning year for Big Ben. I think they take a step back to take a step forward. I'm just not sure how big a step back that step will be. Whether it will be all the way out of the playoffs or just to 10-6.
Cincy's defense still doesn't impress me. Either running or passing.
Detroit finally scored some points. I didn't see the game, but maybe, just maybe, it's time to think about their totals. Last year they had some weeks there that were great for overs, we might get some of those again.
I'm glad GB won a game, they won't win many this year and so I think this was good for them.
I think Indy is for Jacksonville like NE was for Indy for years. I think it's become a mental thing. They know exactly how to play them, but they simply can't beat them in Indy. I didn't see it happening today, I don't see it happening any time in the near future without Manning melting down. On these teams, though, I think we learned that Indy is basically the team they've been for the last few years and that Jax seems to be the team they were last year. That should be good for at least 10 wins for Jax and at least 11 for Indy.
Minnesota just did what they do again today. Today they probably should have won, really. But last week they should have lost so it seems these things even out. Again I'll say it, Minnesota is going to run over people--literally--this year. They likely will not blow out anyone but the dregs of the league, but they are going to be able to run the ball and control the clock.
Chicago, hey, they did what they had to do. Big gut-check kind of win for them. This really seems like their division to lose now that they're 3-0 in it and have a road win vs. the only team that should rightly contest them. Let down next week?
Don't look now, and it may mean nothing, but Washington showed up for the first time this season today. Just hear it in the background. When they're 100% and once they get on the same page, they do have talent. No reason to lump them in with the bottom of the barrel.
Carolina may have saved their season, but I'm still not sold yet. Not without a healthy Steve Smith.
Tampa. Two things. Their staff loves this Gradkowski (sp?) character. If he comes in I'll still look to bet against them because their line sucks and without a running game, what are they going to do. But I would prefer the known quantity of a not-so-good Simms back there rather than an unknown.
Two, I saw John Gruden on one of the morning shows this morning and that guy has become a walking ad for sunscreen. Seriously, parents, teach your kids the value of protecting yourself from the sun. Chucky is in his 40s and his face is starting to look like a f**king lizard. It's creepy and I don't want to see him when he's 60.
All right, enough of this nonsense, let's talk about the Cleveland Browns. Yes, they should have won, but they're a young team and this is what happens. Charlie Frye makes a key mistake at a key time. Others don't execute. It happens. But they should be proud and Romeo should be emboldened by letting this team come out of the box throwing. Even without Ruben teams are going to make Frye beat them. He has the talent around him to do it. They need to let him. He has to learn. If you want to write this team off, please do, but as the season goes on they're going to start making people some money and I intend to be one of them.
Oh, and what you saw today was an admission that Kellen Winslow was right. I don't like his mouth either, but that they threw the ball today and did what they did suggests to me that Romeo has the right handle on this team.
Philly and Seattle are slowly becoming the same team and--as an Eagle fan--I don't like it. Seattle isn't the same team they were last year. That running game isn't there without Hutch. It's just a fact. But that passing game is going to be better with Branch because they can go four wide. This will also help Alexander by spreading the field and giving him some lanes. But Alexander isn't going to come close to the stats he had last year. And I think Seattle is going to have to win by throwing the ball. Even though they have a good defense, they are going to have to throw the ball and put up points to win. Bet accordingly.
Same with Philly and I think we learned with the Eagles today that though their defense is good, it's not great. Great teams do not let good or bad teams come back from the dead and though the Eagles offense eventually kept the game out of reach today, their defense in the second half was soft. I'm going to cut them a little slack because they were all the way across the country and up by 21 at the time. But I'm not happy about their performance today and because the offense can't kill the clock with a running game, this team, like Seattle, will need to win via the air and via points
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