sitio de apuestas

2016 record: 35-20

The pick:

Knicks +2.5 over Pelicans

Betting angles on NBA games where players choose to play (or not) on a nightly basis are very thin. So there really is no need for an in-depth write-up. But there are a few key points to back the Knicks here.

1. A .500 record or better.

Knicks are currently sitting at 16-15. Lose this game and you have the Rockets up next on the road where the Knicks will be decent underdogs on back to back.

Win the game and guarantee you head into the New Year with a >.500 a symbolic representation of a long struggling franchise.

2. A Pelicans win streak that has been favorable.

Pelicans have beaten the Heat, Dallas, and the Clippers.

The Heat win was legitimate. Dallas has been one of the worst teams in the league and the Clippers didn't have Paul or Blake that night. But the three game win streak, with that line-up all games at home with two of the three teams struggling mightily (and the Heat are a bit hobble with Whiteside), is perfect for false confidence and in general, a good betting rule is to fade good teams off winning streaks at the right time.

This is a 12 win team (i.e., Not good) so fading them here is even better.

3. Knicks on a 2 game losing streak

 They lost to the Celtics at home on Christmas (a game they really wanted to cure their Dec 25th woes, a day they do not shine on) and then lost an OT game to the Hawks when Carmelo was dealt a questionable ejection.

I look for the Knicks to preserve a .500 record going into the new year with a motivated squad including an amped up Carmelo who once again has put precedence on this game.

2016 Record: 36-21

The Pick:

Redskins - 7.5 over Giants

Lay the points. I know you're afraid of the .5 point and if you want to buy it down, it's actually one of the only times I'd say it's allowed. But I'm not here to post -130 favorites. I will lay the 7.5.

This line is all driven by McAdoo. He says he will play the starters.

Folks, for all the good this guy has done this year he is still a rookie coach making a rookie mistake. He wants to appear competitive in the face of a worthless game to the Giants (outside of a tune-up) but as soon as Eli gets sacked he has to be pulled. End of story. And the same for ODB who will be hounded by Josh Norman all day (and forget injury, a suspension is possible with these two going at it).

This is insane. He can't play the starters for anything more than a quarter and I expect the Skins to come out firing in the first quarter anyway.

How can you tell me a defense (who has down one of it's top guys in JPP), is going to play full bore for 4 quarters with all starters.

In a meaningless game. And this all only costs us 7.5 points? At home? Where the Giants, of their 5 losses, have lost 4 on the road. The teams they lost to? Paper tigers: Vikings, Packers (When they were struggling mightily), Eagles (with the playoffs on the line and then they backed in)

2016 Record: 36-21

The Pick:

Redskins - 7.5 over Giants

Lay the points. I know you're afraid of the .5 point and if you want to buy it down, it's actually one of the only times I'd say it's allowed. But I'm not here to post -130 favorites. I will lay the 7.5.

This line is all driven by McAdoo. He says he will play the starters.

Folks, for all the good this guy has done this year he is still a rookie coach making a rookie mistake. He wants to appear competitive in the face of a worthless game to the Giants (outside of a tune-up) but as soon as Eli gets sacked he has to be pulled. End of story. And the same for ODB who will be hounded by Josh Norman all day (and forget injury, a suspension is possible with these two going at it).

This is insane. He can't play the starters for anything more than a quarter and I expect the Skins to come out firing in the first quarter anyway.

How can you tell me a defense (who has down one of it's top guys in JPP), is going to play full bore for 4 quarters with all starters.

In a meaningless game. And this all only costs us 7.5 points? At home? Where the Giants, of their 5 losses, have lost 4 on the road. The teams they lost to? Paper tigers: Vikings (under .500), Packers (When they were struggling mightily), Eagles (with the playoffs on the line and then they backed in), and the Steelers.

This is not the same team as it was on the road.

And the Skins? You may have visions of the Skins team last year who you felt were illegitimate playoff participants. This is a completely different team than last year. And the stats prove it.

Redskins played TWO playoff teams last year in the regular season and were outscored: 106-44.

This year, they played SEVEN playoff teams and were almost dead even in scoring at: 177-169.

Last year was one of the weakest NFC East divisions:

4-12 Cowboys, 6-10 Giants, 7-9 Eagles.

This year? 13-2 Cowboys, 10 win Giant team and a competitive up and coming Eagles team who are a tough out.

2016 Record: 36-21

The Pick:

Redskins - 7.5 over Giants

Lay the points. I know you're afraid of the .5 point and if you want to buy it down, it's actually one of the only times I'd say it's allowed. But I'm not here to post -130 favorites. I will lay the 7.5.

This line is all driven by McAdoo. He says he will play the starters.

Folks, for all the good this guy has done this year he is still a rookie coach making a rookie mistake. He wants to appear competitive in the face of a worthless game to the Giants (outside of a tune-up) but as soon as Eli gets sacked he has to be pulled. End of story. And the same for ODB who will be hounded by Josh Norman all day (and forget injury, a suspension is possible with these two going at it).

This is insane. He can't play the starters for anything more than a quarter and I expect the Skins to come out firing in the first quarter anyway.

How can you tell me a defense (who has down one of it's top guys in JPP), is going to play full bore for 4 quarters with all starters.

In a meaningless game. And this all only costs us 7.5 points? At home? Where the Giants, of their 5 losses, have lost 4 on the road. The teams they lost to? Paper tigers: Vikings (under .500), Packers (When they were struggling mightily), Eagles (with the playoffs on the line and then they backed in), and the Steelers.

This is not the same team as it was on the road.

And the Skins? You may have visions of the Skins team last year who you felt were illegitimate playoff participants. This is a completely different team than last year. And the stats prove it.

Redskins played TWO playoff teams last year in the regular season and were outscored: 106-44.

This year, they played SEVEN playoff teams and were almost dead even in scoring at: 177-169.

Last year was one of the weakest NFC East divisions:

4-12 Cowboys, 6-10 Giants, 7-9 Eagles.

This year? 13-2 Cowboys, 10 win Giant team and a competitive up and coming Eagles team who are a tough out.

"But Scal, the Pass Defense is terrible!!"

Yes it is, but again, Eli will not play this whole game so you'll have Josh Johnson coming in (NOT Nassib who many here know as Eli's backup but he's had elbow surgery).

The last time Johnson threw a pass in the NFL?

12/11/2011. I'm serious.

If he comes in, the Giants already have a very week running game with Paul Perkins as their primary in front of Jennings.

So even if Eli stays in, the Skins have played good/decent to top flight QB's this year (unlike last year): Dak twice/Wentz twice/Eli/Stafford/Palmer/Dalton/Newton/Flacco.

Now you see why their pass defense gets shredded? And this team has nine wins!

And they easily could have 11: A missed 34 yard FG in London. And the other game which some here don't remember and it was worse: Up 17-13, they let the Lions score a TD in 73 seconds over a nearly a full football field.

And now for the whopper.

Remember we took Penn State to beat Wisconsin and I said that THIS Penn State team would never be the same. The momentum it built, it's defense, it's QB/RB combo, it's resurrection from the Paterno scandal, Franklin's resurgence. All of that or almost all that goes away in a new season.

We get that magic with the Skins and it only comes around once in Halley's Comet flyby with the Skins.

Simply put, this is one of the great offensive teams the Skins have ever had.

How good? They rank third in total yards in the NFL.

How often has that happened?

1999, 1991, 1984, 1983, 1966 since WORLD WAR II. This kind of offensive production is happening once or twice a decade (and skipping several other decades completely).

THAT is why we lay 7.5 here boys. This is unique offensive force for the Skins.

All the pieces are here for a cover and we will call McAdoo's bluff. He'll play his hand in the first quarter and almost certainly the second but again, if the Skins get to Eli you have to sit him. And his backup hasn't seen a receiver in half a decade.

The Skins have EVERYTHING to play for. This is one of the most valuable franchises in the NFL and are playoff starved for a win there. But get there first. And although the Giants have been impressive, they unraveled last week against the Skins as road favorites and get penalized here as 7.5 dogs.

One final note: A guy who always burns the Giants Desean Jackson is coming on strong to end the season. Total receiving yards in the last 5 games: 114, 111, 102, 59, 118.

There's enough here for a cover. McAdoo with feign aggression and fold his hand when the chips are down. I absolutely do not see the Giants winning this game and eliminating the Skins (a win and their in scenario if not for a GB/Det tie) so 7.5 is not a ton of points at home otherwise. And the Skins beat them in Week 4 when they were 0-3 and the Giants were 2-0 (they have their number this year).

2017 Record: 1-4

Whatever record the #alternative fact Trump supporting trolls come with (and it will be worse, it's always worse and framed in the worst way possible...i.e., now the TOTAL record is important but when you hit 70% it's the segregated record) it is false. The Purdue team total was included last year with the 4-1 ATS record on Purdue sides. I've proven this to the trolls many times but it is to no avail and I'm tired of continuing. They will be here to skew.

Now onto this game. This is an angle that has remarkably come up THREE TIMES in the past three years, but now we may never see it again.

Why? Because there is an upper bound to the amount of points you can lose by.

The Lakers lost by 49 points to the Mavericks last game, their worst loss ever.

I have said this time and time again here and it should be part of your capping core: Terrible losses, embarrassing losses, historic losses should make you circle the very next game on your calendar as a play on the team that lost.

Why? In the NBA, NOTHING is certain. You DO NOT KNOW when teams will come to play.

Look at the Warriors last night, losing straight up to a Miami team that was +552 on the ML.

In fact, EVERY dog cashed last night except for the Nets (who got crushed) over the Spurs (who, of all the dogs, you'd think could lose since they rested several starter including Kawai):

New Orleans +431 over Cavs

Clippers +273 over Atlanta

Kings +250 over Detroit

Wizards +227 over Charlotte

Knicks +195 over Indiana

OKC +175 over Utah

Milwaukee +171 over Houston

I just put this into the parlay calculator and a $100 ticket on all these teams parlayed together won:

$3,239,270

Think of how many ML parlays on the favorites last night's results destroyed

The point? When can you count on these teams coming to play?

You resort to human psychology and the answer is clear: When their EGO has been harmed.

And I can assure you the Lakers collective ego is in the gutter right now. And there is only one way out: Up.

All we need is EFFORT because we will be getting points on the road in Portland. All we need is for this team to be competitive. Off a historic backbreaking loss, maybe never to be seen again, I am selling you the fact we will get that.

A bruised ego like this does not come along often. It has several times in the past three years with the worst Laker teams in their history. But a 49 point loss is not a 50 point loss. That indignity of '50' may very well make this the largest loss ever to be seen in Lakers history.

Teams fight to get under that 50. Just don't lose by FIFTY (after we loafed through the entire game) and it'll be ok. We as cappers HAVE to capitalize on this angle because we won't get it back.

And remember this: Unlike the past several years, THIS TEAM IS NOT TANKING.

Their draft pick is protected in the top three but it is clear this team is done losing. While the Lakers are tip-toeing around falling into the top 3, there is no guarantee they wouldn't be bumped to the fourth spot and lose their pick to the Sixers. This is a team screaming "The rebuild is over" after Kobe has left the building (and he, and his ball hogging ways a major key to their losing the past several seasons). Now he is gone. Now this team is responding. Now it is time to win. A team that is guaranteed not to tank is a team, at a minimum, you can trust in this spot.

But amazingly, because of the bruised NBA egos, you can trust even TANKING teams! Specifically the Lakers! Don't believe me?

I have the evidence:

Last season it was clear the Lakers were tanking to hang onto their draft pick. No one can argue this. If you argue this, you will lose the argument.

BUT even with that:

1. The Lakers lost by 48, 123-74 to the Jazz last year on 3/28/2016 as 13.5 pt dogs on the road.

What happened the VERY NEXT GAME:

They won outright as 10.5 pt dogs over a playoff bound Heat team in LA 102-100 in OT.

2. The Lakers also lost by 48 to the Clippers, 142-94 on 3/6/2014 as 11 pt dogs at home.

What happened the VERY NEXT GAME?:

They went into Denver, into the altitude on a back to back and covered 126-134 as 10 pt dogs.

Those are just the most recent historic bashings and the Lakers, TANKING Laker teams (responding because of a bruised ego), covered both games (with one game winning outright).

But there is another game, among the tanking Laker teams that is very relevant:

That game came AFTER the game on December 1, 2015 (yet another tanking Laker team):

On that night, perhaps the most embarrassing line in the history of pro sports had been set by the books: The Lakers came in as one point DOGS to a Sixer team that lost TWENTY EIGHT games in a row up until that point.

The Lakers lost outright 103-91.

WHAT happened the very next game?

The Lakers won in Washington 108-104 on a BACK TO BACK as ten point dogs.

These are all tanking Lakers teams. All three games where the Lakers could have continued to tank they would not: because their personal pride as megalomaniac hundred-millionaires demanded they save some sort of face.

And that is the sale here. They will save face against what I believe is a decidedly underwhelming Blazers team.

This is a team with a great backcourt and the likes of Noah Vonleh, Mason Plumlee and Evan Turner to compliment them. This team can be beat. And they absolutely can be beat in this spot. And this is a team the Lakers just lost to (so they just saw them) on 1/10/2017.

And if you don't believe me, take it from the players and coach: the consistent them in all these videos is play to compete (not lay down like a team can do on any given night).

Juilus Randle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbcC4E_aiY&feature=youtu.be

"Compete" "We let ourselves down. We let everyone down. We let the fans down." "It's our job to go out there and compete as pros" (lol, one game too late Julius).

Luke Walton:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar_kNBwk89E

"Focus. We came in guys competed in practive, guys put in their work. "Guys showed that they are not OK with it."

All lip service but at a minimum, you can see these guys are at their lowest low and there is only one way out: UP.

Again, this is 49 point loss and nothing may ever match it unless a team really wants to drill them just to stick 50 in their face. And if they do? I'll be here to post the next game after that night too so even if it happens there is more money coming.

This really should be a Lakers ML play but I'll take all the points the books will give and go large.

Yes there will be no Russell but this game transcends Russell in a winnable game where we get points and have all the motivation to redeem ourselves.

Like the Browns as the losing progressed, I expect this line to drop so when it opens I am jumping on the opening line at 5Dimes. I suggest you do the same on your site when it opens! 

2017 Record: 3-4

The Pick:

Albany -4.5 over Stony Brook

"Go to College Extra on 5 Dimes"

Revenge.

You remember the name of the kid who made fun of you on the playground the first time.

You remember the first time your father laid one into for doing some stupid shi*.

You remember the first time a teacher subtly mocked you in front of the entire classroom for giving a stupid answer.

We all went through this. These events are permanently imprinted on our consciousness until we pass away.

Revenge....acts in the same manner. Even if we never act upon it, it always lingers. If we get a chance to act on it, it is the only opportunity repair the bludgeon mark it has left on our consciousness.

The Albany Great Danes get that opportunity....TONIGHT!

Revenge angles are always touted on this site and everywhere else. This is revenge. That is revenge. Much of it isn't. Some of it is. Most of it fails. A few gems do not. It is an overused angle, an angle that has been tirelessly beaten to death. But let us as cappers not completely dismiss this angle because at it's core, it is more than legitimate, and perhaps, one of the single-most legitimate angles.

This is a game of revenge because what occurred on 1/8/17, the last time these two teams played, gave everyone who witnessed it something they've never seen and may never see again in the history of college basketball.

On that day, the Albany Great Danes were leading the Stony Brook Sea Wolves were trailing 51-70 with 5:55 left to play.

Then the unconscionable occurred.  

Stony Brook scored....

TWENTY ONE STRAIGHT POINTS to win at the buzzer breaking a 70-70 tie.

2017 Record: 3-4

$1,940.

That is all that is left.

A relentless assault of bombings to my bankroll like Scud Missiles on Baghhad have annihilated my roll. Iraqis literally lined up in chain gangs to be hauled off as POW’s when Bush Senior lead that war. So have chunks of money in my bankroll these past several months. Who were the culprits?

Scud Missle #1 – Donald over Hillary

Ten parlays over 4 MONTHS of betting. 19 winning bets all completed. ALL of them, tied into Hillary at every price possible. This doesn’t even go into the fact that I checked Hillary’s odds EVERY DAY several times a day to get the best price. She never even remotely approached + money. All that time and energy checking lines, making bets, parlaying for massive payouts, comes down to me, in a basement, on my hands and knees, in the corner, PRAYING that Hillary does not somehow crack the + money barrier. I remember that moment well. The moment it turned on me. The moment I not only had to accept all the parlays were toast, but that this man would actually run the country. When I saw Hillary -125 go to Hillary +105, I knew I was dead.

I was watching the Young Turks that night online as they commentated live. They were literally LAUGHING, bellowing, beside themselves at the prospect Trump could win. I chuckled along with them, knowing a forthcoming celebration was inevitable. And slowly, you saw the perspiration form across the top of the forehead of Cenk Uyger, the host. The laughter was no more. The dirty, filthy rats went behind the curtain and pulled that lever for Trump like it was one of those idiotic giant slot machines on Fremont Street. Filthy lying rats in the shadows, duping pollsters and arranging for my betting demise.

Result: Donald turns the country Red. Incalculable parlay losses.

Scud Missle #2 – The Bills team total over 8.

A 6-7 record with 3 to play against the Browns Jets and Dolphins after blowing a double digit lead against the Raiders late in the second half.

And instead of Tyrod Taylor, Lesean McCoy and my beloved Rex Ryan (who has printed money for me), who would die before he lost his last game to the Jets, I get EJ Manuel, Mike Gillislee and a replacement head coach who you couldn’t differentiate from the guy who was in the commercial for Dunkin Donuts in the “Time to make the Donuts” era.

Down in flames with an unconscionable 30-10 loss to the disgraceful Jets. You could have put Rex’s head in a jar like Mother Brain from Metroid and he would have coached that team to victory. This loss shook me hard because there was zero chance I ever thought the Bills owners would jettison Rex before the end of the season, nevermind right before the Jets game.

Result: Bills end the year 7-9

Record: 9-14

It is important to dispel a very common notion about the NIT tournament made by the apathetic capper.

"This tournament is meaningless. How do you know these teams are motivated!"

This is farcical when it comes to certain teams, particularly these two. Syracuse, a proud tournament franchise obviously regards the NIT as table scraps compared to the Bid Dance, but I need not recount the history of these two programs, of which success is largely non-existent.

Before this year, UCF had TWO tournament wins...except it was in the College Invitational Tournament over Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure. They've been handily dispatched from the Big Dance 4 times. They went to the NIT once ever and lost in the first round to Drexel.

This is a very big deal for them. It is far bigger than making the tournament and getting crushed by Kentucky.

TCU has had far more success in the Big Dance but their last win came 3 decades. They have some NIT wins under their belt as well but most of that came 2 decades ago. This is program that has a hard time even being recognized or funded by the school. They have never made a Final Four of any kind.

Both these teams regard this run and this next game as a platform to future success, recruits, investment and notoriety.

It most certainly means something. For me to copy and paste all the quotes from team members and coaches as to why this is is to waste your time and mine. They are there and it is quite evident.

Establishing meaning for a game (be it honoring the deceased or a revenge game or a playoff game, etc.) is the first and most important requirement prerequisite. Without meaning, if you are not compensated more than generously on the spread, you cannot depend on teams to respond. They will here. Both sides.

Record: 9-14

It is important to dispel a very common notion about the NIT tournament made by the apathetic capper. And I call them apathetic because they typically look to 'big game' and the limelight when they cap. This can be costly because the lines on those games are usually ultra-sharp (look at the Wisconsin over Florida +2/+1.5 line!). The further you regress from the main feature, the better the spot and the lines. And I think we get a good line here.

Relevant points:

1. "This tournament is meaningless. How do you know these teams are motivated!"

This is farcical when it comes to certain teams, particularly these two. Syracuse, a proud tournament franchise obviously regards the NIT as table scraps compared to the Bid Dance, but I need not recount the history of these two programs, of which success is largely non-existent.

Before this year, UCF had TWO tournament wins...except it was in the College Invitational Tournament over Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure. They've been handily dispatched from the Big Dance 4 times. They went to the NIT once ever and lost in the first round to Drexel.

This is a very big deal for them. It is far bigger than making the tournament and getting crushed by Kentucky.

TCU has had far more success in the Big Dance but their last win came 3 decades. They have some NIT wins under their belt as well but most of that came 2 decades ago. This is program that has a hard time even being recognized or funded by the school. They have never made a Final Four of any kind.

Both these teams regard this run and this next game as a platform to future success, recruits, investment and notoriety.

It most certainly means something. For me to copy and paste all the quotes from team members and coaches as to why this is is to waste your time and mine. They are there and it is quite evident.

Establishing meaning for a game (be it honoring the deceased or a revenge game or a playoff game, etc.) is the first and most important requirement prerequisite. Without meaning, if you are not compensated more than generously on the spread, you cannot depend on teams to respond. They will here. Both sides.

We are going with UCF here. What are they offering?

1. Defense

Obvious? Yes. But oh so good. And it time to discard the idea that this was all done in the lowly AAC. This is an excellent defense. Defense is important because it translates into effort. And UCF, down this stretch of the season, has been showing that effort every night.

How good are they?

1st in the country in FG Defense

5th in the country in points allowed

21st in the country in 3 pt defense.

Record: 9-14

It is important to dispel a very common notion about the NIT tournament made by the apathetic capper. And I call them apathetic because they typically look to 'big game' and the limelight when they cap. This can be costly because the lines on those games are usually ultra-sharp (look at the Wisconsin over Florida +2/+1.5 line!). The further you regress from the main feature, the better the spot and the lines. And I think we get a good line here.

Relevant points:

1. "This tournament is meaningless. How do you know these teams are motivated!"

This is farcical when it comes to certain teams, particularly these two. Syracuse, a proud tournament franchise obviously regards the NIT as table scraps compared to the Bid Dance, but I need not recount the history of these two programs, of which success is largely non-existent.

Before this year, UCF had TWO tournament wins...except it was in the College Invitational Tournament over Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure. They've been handily dispatched from the Big Dance 4 times. They went to the NIT once ever and lost in the first round to Drexel.

This is a very big deal for them. It is far bigger than making the tournament and getting crushed by Kentucky.

TCU has had far more success in the Big Dance but their last win came 3 decades. They have some NIT wins under their belt as well but most of that came 2 decades ago. This is program that has a hard time even being recognized or funded by the school. They have never made a Final Four of any kind.

Both these teams regard this run and this next game as a platform to future success, recruits, investment and notoriety.

It most certainly means something. For me to copy and paste all the quotes from team members and coaches as to why this is is to waste your time and mine. They are there and it is quite evident.

Establishing meaning for a game (be it honoring the deceased or a revenge game or a playoff game, etc.) is the first and most important requirement prerequisite. Without meaning, if you are not compensated more than generously on the spread, you cannot depend on teams to respond. They will here. Both sides.

We are going with UCF here. What are they offering?

1. Defense

Obvious? Yes. But oh so good. And it time to discard the idea that this was all done in the lowly AAC. This is an excellent defense. Defense is important because it translates into effort. And UCF, down this stretch of the season, has been showing that effort every night.

How good are they?

1st in the country in FG Defense

5th in the country in points allowed

21st in the country in 3 pt defense.

What more do you want? It's all there. On one side of the ball, this team is swarming the other, wearing them down, hawking them, making them earn each and every point. You do not need a stellar offense with that kind of defense.

How good are they? In the Illinois game in their most important game in forever, Illinois did not score a two point FG until 2 minutes left in the first half.

5 threes and 15 points only for the first 18 minutes of the game.

Why was this?

2. Tacko Fall

7 feet 6.5 inches.

Folks, Andre the Giant turns his chin up to this man.

He is nowhere near sensational on offense but is efficient when he has an open look.

On defense he is the ultimate rim protector and rebounder. If there is an errant shot, he's getting the rebound. If you watch him you need to go around him or draw him to the perimeter. Shooting over him with floaters leads to little success and he'll have your miss seconds later.

So DISRUPTIVE is Tacko Fall, TCU is simulating his low post defense WITH BROOMSTICKS in practice sessions.

Do I love the creativity from the coaches? Yes. Do I want to bet that such a simulation is meaningful? I can't bet on that. And how much practice can you dedicate to what amounts to a local protest against a political candidate with all but the cardboard missing at the top of the stick.

3. Coaching advantage

Jamie Dixon (TCU) vs. Johnny Dawkins (UCF)

The edge goes to Dawkins here both overall and in this tournament.

Dixon won a Big East Championship (2008) and a CBI championship (2012) at Pitt. 

Dawkins, at Stanford went to the Sweet Sixteen in the Big Dance in 2014 but this is what stands out:

He is 13-1 in NIT tournament games and has 2 NIT championships. YES, 10 of those wins came with Stanford, a completely different team but when it comes to coaching it is CLEAR this tournament matters and he properly motivates his players for this stage no matter how insignificant it is compared to the Big Dance.

After a 12-18 at UCF last season  he has done it once again and has this UCF team 2 wins away from another championship.

Edge: UCF.  

4.  Visions of Kemba Walker

There is one player who you did not want to face in UConn's NCAA Tournament run. It was Kemba. He single-handidly brought that program a championship.

I see some similar characteristic in BJ Taylor.

He's not Kemba. But he is performing at a level of 'clutch' that is Kemba-like. So while we'd need a Kemba in the Big Dance, getting a "Kemba-like" player in BJ Taylor in the NIT is equivalent given the downgrade in competition.

Here are his stats the past 3 games of the tournament:

26p 4a 5-8 3pters vs. Colorado

22p 4a 2 steals vs. Illinois State

17p 2a vs. Illinois

But where he really impresses you is at the line. Not only is he a slasher that continually gets to the line, he hits his free throws.

11-11

6-8 in the past 2.

 He's been playing much more aggressively in picking up fouls, consequently getting the other teams players reduced minutes while in foul trouble, but he also hit the two key free throws vs. Illinois State on the road in a more than hostile environment with 1.3 seconds left.

That was an incredible display of poise and is incredibly necessary in a spot like this. To have a player like this on our side is crucial to a winning cap.

And again, let me Accentuate what it was to win in Illinois State over a #1 seed. Illinois State was looking to face Illinois at home for the first time since 1920.

To be denied that chance, with that being their motivation, is a win for UCF that deserves a gold star.

Dispatching of Illinois thereafter was mere child's play in comparison and outside of a 1 pt lead to start the game, Illinois never lead the entire way.

5. TCU's path to the Final Four

To me, this was not as impressive.

They beat Fresno State in the first round. Nice team but unremarkable and also from an unremarkable conference.

They beat Iowa 94-92 in Iowa. Excellent win but I'll get back to this game.

They beat Richmond in a game Richmod was outclassed in from top to bottom. This was not an adequate tune-up for what UCF will present.

Richmond has a center/forward named TJ Cline.

He scored 33 against TCU. But for everything he gives you on offense he gives it up on defense.

Think of the burly, slightly portly, white male with a beard who comes to read your water meter. That is TJ Cline with another 6 inches.

TCU destroyed him underneath. They had their way with him on offense however they wanted.

So, and this is key, Iowa and Richmond are two teams that are not known for their defense or their rim protection.

This is PRECISELY what UCF is known for.

And that will present MAJOR problems for TCU as Brodziansky needs to work hard down low to get points. Tacko will change that in a very big way as he's 7 inches taller with an 8'4'' wingspan.

Also Alex Robinson (PG) depends on slashing and floaters for points and Tacko will disrupt this as well.

TCU can hit threes but their inside game will be grossly disrupted and they will be hawked on the perimeter.

What UCF presents will be night and day from Richmond, a team TCU crushed by 20 and Iowa.

This is a very important point in terms of a tune-up for their Final Four match-up which ultimately favors UCF.

6. Jaylen Fisher, TCU's starting PG, broke his wrist.

He did this three games ago.

You know who he is. The young man who is an albino (and I say that respectfully since to get to where he's gotten deserves the ultimate praise).

He broke his wrist in the Fresno State game.

He averages 9 points and ran their offense with Alex Robinson.

This is important because it explains two things:

1) Typically when one player goes down others step up. We saw that in the Iowa game TCU won by 2. So in essence, TCU got a bit of a 'bounce' from the injury and Iowa was unprepared for Robinson who was more aggressive than he was all season.

2) Against a great D like UCF (something Iowa and Richmond weren't), Robinson will not have a reliever in Fisher to lean on. UCF's ball-hawking on the perimeter in the biggest game of Robinsons life could/should rattle him enough for us to prevail.

Robison has played GREAT in Fisher's absence 19p/11a vs. Iowa 12p/5a vs. Richmond but this is a different team and a different spot. He will not get the same points he got off TJ Cline with Tacko standing over him.  

One more thing about Jaime Dixon. For all the praise he's getting for 'turning TCU around' conference play is what matters.

He went 6-12 in conference. That's bad. And not only that, two of those wins came over Texas in one of their worst season's in their history. So let's be careful when he laud 'turnarounds'. When inspected they may be less impressive than previously thought.

teams that have accomplished nothing, something means everything.

7. Who is the hotter team? Who is the team with more momentum?

This one is simple but needs to be pointed out:

While TCU has won 5 of 6 including a win over Kansas, they've only won 5 of their last 13 games getting crushed in conference before a late season mini-surge.

UCF on the other hand has been on a tear for a month and a half winning 9 of 10 including beating Cincinnati.

What does that mean? While TCU is 'surging' as the same team, UCF is a different one. This is not the typical AAC dog you kick around. They've really come together late and are playing their best basketball of the season over a significant stretch. "Hot" and "Transformed" are too different things and I posit UCF is a transformed team that TCU will have trouble with.

Finally a unique angle:

8. Sightseeing tours

We don't pick a winner based on this but it is worth pointing out as a capping hors d'oeuvres (i.e., that little extra psychological edge that may have a remote impact).

The Horned Frogs (22-15) face Central Florida (24-11) in Tuesday’s semifinal matchup at Madison Square Garden in New York (8:30 p.m., ESPN). The Knights’ defense is anchored by Tacko Fall, a 7-foot-6 sophomore who is the tallest player in major-college basketball and the American Athletic Conference defensive player of the year.

Fall has averaged 11.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game this season. He stands seven inches taller than TCU forward Vladimir Brodziansky, a 6-11 junior who leads the team in scoring (13.8 avg.) and blocked shots (2.2 avg.).

Likewise, Dixon wants this TCU team to expect to a celebration in Madison Square Garden after Thursday’s title game. But along the path to that possibility, he’ll introduce them to multiple New York-themed experiences, staring with Sunday’s practice on the West Point campus in a gym where his late sister once coached.

"We have some things planned for them up there. I’m really looking forward to it.”

While in New York, Dixon’s schedule calls for a visit to the 9/11 memorial at ground zero and a late-night sampling of food from a street vendor. Dixon said coaches will supervise the late-night acquisition of gyros, a tradition he will carry over from his days at Pitt.

This is all fine and dandy and certainly 'lifts the soul' per se, which has advantages, but I prefer the 'all-business' approach and this is not it.

And they will extra prep against a smothering defense instead of order Super-sized Fat Boy gyros on an NYC street corner.

9. The line