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2014 Record including playoffs: 19-9 (68%)

Game 5 - Nets @ Raptors:

This is a very dangerous game…very dangerous.

I capped three games in this series and have gone 2-1. This game is the toughest of the bunch. And one of the three I needed to tease to pull out a victory.

Let’s go over the good and the bad (and there is a lot more bad than good, BUT we will be getting points to offset the bad).

THE BAD

1. Neutralizing Joe Johnson

 

Finally, the Raptors made the adjustment they should have made with the first game of this series. They doubled and even tripled Joe Johnson. What did that mean? That meant that the Raptors were telling the Nets to find someone else to beat them.

 

I said in the three previous games I capped, Joe Johnson would have a big game in all three. Did he? Yes.

 

Game 1: 24 and 8r 62% FG

Game 2: 18 and 3r 52% FG

Game 3: 29 and 0r 65% FG

 

JJ presents major matchup problems for anyone on the court guarding him so he was bound to have a big series.

 

Then, finally, in the game I didn’t post, the Raptors said “let someone else beat us” and they closed in on JJ. What happened?

 

Game 4: 7 and 5 29% FG

 

This is important to know because the Raptors took away the Nets best scoring option and what was the result? A win on a court where the Nets had been unbeatable by 8 points, the biggest margin of victory in any game this series.

 

This is a problem folks. I watched the game and the Raps are collapsing on him when he gets to the basket. When he is on the perimeter, they are doubling him.

 

Are the Raptors going to do this again? Oh yes. It won them Game 4 in part.

 

That means the other 4 starters: PP, KG, Livingston, and Deron must beat the Raptors.

 

The GOOD

1. Can Deron, PP and KG be leaned on?

 

It’s uncertain. But first PP.

 

He is one of the all-time playoff clutch performers. He said “This is why they brought me here” after the Nets won Game 1. Well PP, this is even MORE of a reason why they brought you here.

 

Did he come to play this series?

 

Game 1: 15 and 4 taking over in the final 3 minutes

Game 2: 7 and 5 on 2-11FG disappearing

Game 3: 18 and 5 on 56% shooting coming back

Game 4: 22 and 6 on 64% shooting in a loss, the Nets line bright spot.

In my opinion, these last two games, PP really turned it on and essentially was their entire offense to close out Game 1. He must respond and given his progression in this series, specifically in the last two, he definitely should. He is also getting to the hoop. Playoff basketball is about FT’s and getting to the line as much as possible in half court sets and PP, was 7-7 from the line in game 3 (despite being 1-2 last game since he attacked the basket so well, he didn't even draw a foul). He is attacking and that is what is needed to back the Nets in Game 3.

 

So, the good is I believe we can depend on PP and that is no small player to depend on, even at his age.

 

 

Next player to depend on as JJ gets phased out?

 

Deron Williams

 

Can we?

 

I say in this game, yes.

 

I have derided this guy as a DOG in other posts. He is. But he is still one of the best PG’s in the league when he comes to play. Will he come to play in Game 5? I say yes. His boxscores in this series say yes too.

 

Deron is a roller coaster. Up one day and down the next, up again the next after that. How can a player be like that in the playoffs? It’s a long series and players simply don’t have it every game. Only the very special bring it night after night (Lebron :::cough cough:::).

 

Let’s look at his game log:

 

Game 1: 24 and 3A

Game 2: 15 and 5A

Game 3: 22 and 8A

Game 4: 10 and 6A

 

Up and down, up and down. What’s the next game? Up. That is why they are paying him. When he plays and gets 20+ the Nets have great success. That is what we will need: 20+. Can we get it?

 

We have a wild card here with regard to Deron. It is Jason Kidd.

 

This is the reason why they brought Kidd in. Kidd is a champion. He is a legend as the position. EVERYONE wanted to play with him because he played the position like a Hall of Famer. Kidd can coach Deron in these next few days for what will be the biggest game of his life (the games in Utah were big but this is NY, and the stage is bigger and brighter). Just Kidd’s mere presence as a coach is inspiring. Does a guy like Deron need it? Oh yes. So thankfully, we have Kidd to coach him here, inspire him, lead him, and he needs it.

 

So it’s up and down with this guy and the next game should be UP. I believe we can depend on Deron.

 

Onto the next starter: KG

 

Can we depend on him? Absolutely. If there is any value in a guy like KG, it is games like this. He has lost a ton in his step and scoring but none of the energy. His primary goal? Counter Valanciunas. If he does that and makes Val have a quiet game while chipping in 10 and 8 (all we can ask at this age)? The Nets are well on their way to victory. It is the defensive side of the ball we need him most and he comes to play on D, especially on big stages.

 

 

The next few are all wild cards, and we need something from them:

 

Livingston – Hasn’t had a great series but needs to contribute in Game 5.

Teletovic – Needs to step up

Plumlee/Blatche – Getting outplayed by Valanciunas. Definitely need more contributions from both.

Thronton – A total mess. Improvement needed from him ASAP.

Kirilenko – Won’t score but has great hustle. But we need scoring. Needs to clean up on the glass.

 

Can this last list respond? I don’t know. But it is the biggest game of the season and that list of players are no pushovers. They must come to play in JJ’s absence (assuming he is doubled again).

 

And if JJ has a big first half? All the better and we should be on out way to a win. I predict he won’t because I can’t see the Raptors changing their strategy but if you see him scoring we are in good shape.

 

The BAD

2. Raptors could easily be up 3-1

 

Why? I believe the shot clock disruption in game 1 was an issue for the Raps at home who had a deficit grow bigger after it went out.

Then in game 3, they made an amazing 15 point comeback to cut it to ONE and ultimately the Nets stunted them but not after two very questionable foul calls on Vasquez and a tech on Vasquez where points were at a premium in a game decided by 4.

Yes, Game 2 could have gone the Nets way if PP hits a 3 but remember, the Nets never had a lead after the 6:33 mark of the fourth. Raps were in control to end it as they should have been in a must win.

 

The problem here is that overall, the whistle has favored the Nets and the series is now 2-2. The shot clock disruption may have not resulted in a victory but it may have made a convincing 7 point win look much slimmer at around 1 or 2 with the Nets still feeling on their heels instead of relaxing.

 

2. The Nets are getting the whistle

 

We know this is a league of stars. The Nets have the bigger and brighter stars and some legends to boot. The league likes this. It is not conspiracy and not something you solely place a bet on. But a Raptors Heat series is much less appealing than a Nets Heat series where the Nets have gone 4-0 SU vs. the Heat. The Bobcats series was a dud in terms of excitement and if there is anything the league wants, it’s to challenge Lebron, the one guy who can overcome it. It’s worth mentioning. I continue to see the Nets getting a bit of a favorable whistle (as they got one in game 1 and 3 and even got a few more calls in game 4). It’s just conjecture but the series is on the line with this game and we all know it. So do the refs. A few calls for the Nets in a tight one, as it should be, swings the odds in out favor.

 

The BAD

3. 4^th Quarters for the Nets

 

Folks, it’s been very bad in the 4^th for the Nets.

 

Here’s what the Nets, an excellent defensive team, has given up to the Raps in the 4^th in this series:

 

Game 1: 26

Game 2: 36

Game 3: 32

Game 4: 20

 

That’s an average of 28.5!

 

They are not closing out these games!

 

Worse, here is what the Nets have done in the 4^th

 

Game 1: Needed PP to be a hero and he was BUT he was the only guy scoring for them.

Game 2: Gave up the most points in the fourth all series (and I have to check but maybe the most all year) and 17 ALONE to Derozan.

Game 3: Had only one basket by JJ in a stretch from 5:01 to :34 as the Raptors made furious comeback in a game that was all but over and almost stole it in a shocker.

Game 4: DID NOT SCORE in the final 4:58 of the game from the floor or from the line. A 12! Point quarter.

 

Folks, that is atrocious.

 

This is dangerous because this is what our line depends on if we back them: Bad and underperforming fourth quarters.

 

The GOOD.

3. We are getting points in a matchup that is EXTREMELY CLOSE.

 

How close? How do these teams match up?

 

In the third quarter of the last game, this is the graphic that was shown

 

For all their games this year (and through the third quarter of that game 4) the Nets and Raptors matched up like this:

 

Total Points:

Nets – 682

Raps – 677

 

Total Field Goals:

Nets – 234

Raps – 241

 

Threes made:

Nets -54

Raps -50

 

Assists:

Nets – 133

Raps – 132

Record – 4-4 for each team with margins of victory of 7,5,4,8,2,4,1 (and one 16 point blowout by the Raps which I’m throwing out since it was on a b2b with the Heat in a huge letdown spot).

 

These teams are VERY close in terms of match-ups and overall performance. So we have this in our back pocket if we are getting points, and we are getting 3.5 here.

 

Miscellaneous:

 

1. Zig and Zag – Win Lose Win Lose ...Win?

 

A classic way to bet a series expecting one team to respond while the other has a bit less motivation after a win.

 

Nets Zigged with a loss last game and now we want a Zag back to a win.

 

2. Extended rest

 

Two full days rest. Of course, this favors the older Nets who need it. Last time I said it favored the Raps coming off a loss to regroup but this time,

It’s the Nets coming off a loss so we focus on the rest ANd regrouping for the Nets here.

 

3. "What they built", again

 

What they built. The Nets are built for WIN NOW and WIN NOW only. The Raps are built to play with house money in this spot.

Will the Nets cede control of this series in this spot? That is a tough sell but we are going to do something to this bet that makes us

much more comfortable.

 

 

Ok, in summation here is what we have. We are getting 3.5 with the Nets. 3.5 is a shade under 4. Why is that important? Because as I’ve said

many times, 4 is a key number in terms of spread value and it goes up quickly for every .5 point over 4.

 

If you take a line like 3.5 you should cap a team to win. 3.5 is not enough to say,  “the spread will help me get there.” It may help you, but really 4

Is the necessary starting line to attain that help (look at the line of 4.5 last night with the Mavs/Spurs in a 4 point Spurs victory). >=4 matters.

 

As you can tell by my write-up, there is some GOOD but also some very disturbing BAD too to counter it.

 

So now look at the margin of victory in all the games this year (save one). 8 is the highest. 

Therefore, what do we do? We TEASE THIS LONE UP +4.5 to +8. I know you don’t like to tease but it is necessary in this spot.

 

3.5 is not enough and I want the insurance.

 

Plus, in every game this series, if you teased the road dog up? You won. What are we doing here?

Teasing the road dog up with VERY closely matched teams in what should be a barn burner of a game backing a team

that the stats say we can’t trust in the fourth.

 

So we are teasing the Nets from 3.5 to the maximum margin of victory that has decided 7 of 8 games:EIGHT.

 

That is a good spot to be in isn’t it guys? Instead of the 3.5!? Yes, it is.

 

 

 

Now, what is the other game we need to hit?

 

Game 5 - BLAZERS AT ROCKETS.

 

The line is -5.5. This is a PERFECT opportunity to tease this game as well as all the teased points have maximum value down to a what is essentially a ML. 

 

We are going to tease the Rockets down to 1 with a 4.5 point tease.

 

Simply put: The Rockets are not going to lose this game.

 

Why?

 

1. Big guns

 

There are too many big guns on this team. This is team of stars and hoopla like the Nets. Dwight and Harden are two of the league’s faces.

Parsons broke out with 26 last night.

 

It is two bazookas and grenade in those three.

 

It is on their home court in a must win to play on. There is no bigger game all year. Big guns and stars come to play on big stages.

 

What do the Rockets have going for them?

 

1. Troy Daniels

 

Hit the game winner in game 3 and had 17 in a game 4 loss. Whatever was missing from the Rockets in terms of void

Can be filled in game 5 with this guy. He is clutch and has a tremendous stroke. He’s fast and there is no need to double him.

It’s like the Rockets just signed BJ Armstrong or John Paxson circa mid-90’s Bulls. Believe me, the guy will be used and he

makes shots and is a sweet surprise for a Rockets team that wants to keep playing.

 

2. Home Court

 

The Blazers are not going to beat the Rockets three straight home games. They have a 3-1 lead, can easily lose this and

go back home where they are dominant. And with this teased line, it is an ML so all we need is a win.

 

3. Dwight

 

They brought him here for this very spot. He will respond. His late game D has been absolutely tremendous invoking

His Orlando days. He is hitting clutch free throws. The ship will not go down at home with the Rockets losing 4-1 to the Blazers

With Dwight on board.

 

4. Harden

 

Has been scoring a ton but has also been missing a ton of shots with very low FG%’s that have cost the Rockets a lot of possessions.

He’ll get his points in this spot and if he is just a bit more efficient (and he really can’t get much worse), it will translate to a Rockets win.

 

5. What they built Part 2, again

 

I said it for the Nets above and I’ll say it here. This is a win now team that has more win years ahead but losing 4-1 in the first round

To a 5 seed is not an option. And they are home. Time to step up.

 

6. Match-ups

 

Yes, they match up with the Blazers incredibly close with the margin of victory being 3,5,7,2 so there is actually a reason

To tease the Blazers up here. But I would tease them up if it were 2-2. Not a 3-1 where the Rockets must do anything and

Everything to make this series last and we get a ML.

 

7. Lamarcus neutralized

 

Yes, starting Asik to guard him like they did in Game 4 did it. They will continue to start him. He’s had big games, in games 3 and 4 but it’s in the 20’s with lower FG%’s

And not the legendary 40’s of Game 1 and 2. Say what you want about McHale, he’s now found a way to handle LA and LA was a BIG problem. Yes they are

Down 3-1 but he should be commended for this.

 

8. Down 3-1 but could be up 3-1

 

3 OT games with all kinds of offense all over the place.

 

Simply put, Chandler Parsons said it best “We fully expect to win game 5 and then go to Portland to try and do the same in game 6.”

 

The mindset of the Rockets right now is on game 6, not game 5. They are of the mind they will win and then put all their efforts into game 6. 5 is nothing but a win for them, period. And we get a ML.

 

Yes, they cannot defend the 3 or Batum effectively but they should come out fast and it should be a big lead early.

 

In fact, I’m of the mind to play this one straight up laying the -5.5 of the two games. I definitely prefer this game straight up compared to the Nets.

But the Rockets ML here Is the strongest ML of the season in my opinion, and with a 4.5 pt. tease I get that. I also want to harken back to BullsCeltics in 2009. That series went back and forth and the crucial fifth game was decided by a single point. This series reminds me of that one with the three OT's. One problem: that series went 2-2 and this is 3-1. 2-2 is a barn burner in close match-ups (see nets raptors as that should be very close), and 3-1 allows for the team behind to assert themselves, likely in a big way. 

 

Getting the Nets with 8 in the biggest game of these season can’t be passed up and getting the Rockets on the ML is good, damn good. And that is the bet. Straight bets are good. But these lines are very sharp in 2014. Evolution has one main principle: adapt and survive. To survive with our bankrolls, and to build them even we must adapt...by teasing this line.

So tease it is:

 

THE PICK:

 

+4.5 PT TEASE at -110 juice

 

ROCKETS -1 (TEASED FROM -5.5)

NETS +8 (TEASED UP FROM +3.5)