Choose wisely World Cup thread

I love it when the wannabes show up.

Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea

The recent history tells us that Belgium had good teams on paper, but that often didn't transfer into good results on the pitch. It looks like that things have turned around for them with this very young squad as they topped their group in the q round conceding just 4 in the process. This team has been led by Wiltmots since 2012. & it looks like the changes that he made were the final touch that was missing. He's heavily leaning on a 4-2-3-1 formation witch seems to bring out the best from this team.

Despite being a young team, the roster is full of players proven at the top level of European club football, but not making it to the finals since '02 means they lack tournament experience. They look really strong in all positions & only a slight question mark hovers over Lukaku since he still hasn't proven himself as a prolific striker.

Prior WC finals saw them qualify for 6 consecutive tournaments from '82-'02, making it to 2nd phase on 5 occasions.

Algeria had an easy task in their African q group, after which came the coin flip encounter with Burkina Faso. 2-3 loss away & a 1-0 home win were enough for them to book a ticket for Brasil. In Halihodzic (who also led the Ivory Coast team to the 2010 finals, but got sacked just before the tournament) they have a Mourhinho type of guy, thinking defense first & putting team(adn result) above the individual. With the Algerian NT he mostly uses a defensive 4-3-3, but can also change things if needed.

And if Algeria want to make something of this tournament, they will need to be a team. Very young, very inexperienced and a complete mystery for most. Feghouli will probably their main guy, along with Taider. Soudani is also pretty decent, but that is way too little to beat anyone on individual quality alone, even South Korea.

This will b their 4th trip to the finals, after '82, '86 & '10. In South Africa they lost 2 tight games vs Slovenia & USA, while drawing with England & this is something that will probably be their destiny in Brasil.

The funny things is, IMO, African teams have disappointed even more than the Europeans so far & Algeria should be  the weakest of the Africans, at least on paper.

In what was a slight surprise, Russia topped their q group(with Portugal there) under the leadership of Cappello, who took the job in 2012. He changed some things on both ends of the pitch which resulted in Russia conceding just 5 in the q round, while scoring enough. A balanced 4-3-3 is currently his preferred set up for his squad, although they can some changes if needed.

No really classy players are currently in their squad(like Arshavin in recent history), but they are doing things as a team. This team is a mix of old & new faces, but most will be expected from Akinfeev between the pipes & Kerzakov to score some goals. Most of them lack experience of a big tournament.

Only 2 previous finals appearances & 2-0-4 record don't say much. They didn't qualify for '10 finals.

South Korea have had big problems (by their standards) in their q campaign, making only because of better goal difference. Hong was brought in as coach in mid '13, to pick up the pieces of the not so good results at that point. He was the captain of the famous '02 NT hat reached the SF & later an assistant to Hiddink in Anzhi, before taking over. He tried many players to fit his 4-2-3-1, however with mixed results at best.

No big players to speak of on the roster, some of the guys play in Europe. Most will be expected of Bayer's Son who hasn't still reached the level shown in his club, playing for his country.  They have one of the younger squads as well, so experience is scarce.

SK have been a familiar face at the finals as this will be thier 8th consecutive appearance. They were cannon fodder material until the '02 and the famous SF appearance. After that, exit in the group stage in '06 & a  R16 exit in '10, with a 2-2-3 record.

Long story short, this team has problems scoring despite still playing very fast football Hiddink "invented" in '02,

GROUP A: Brasil-Mexico

Brasil haven't been playing anything special in lead up to the tournament or the first game, but that line up is a nightmare for any opposing coach. Neymar is something else when playing for the NT & the refs will be there too if needed. Hulk is out, he picked up a knock .... Julio Cesar, Dani Alves, Thiago Silva (c), David Luiz, Marcelo, Paulinho, Fred, Neymar, Oscar, Ramires, Luiz Gustavo probably for them.

Mexico won the first game 1-0 & had 2 wrongfully disallowed, but Cameroon seem to be in terrible shape and I'm not overly impressed by them. They are a decent team though ...... Ochoa, Rodriguez, Marquez (c), Herrera, Layun, Dos Santos, Moreno, Guardado, Peralta, Aguilar, Vazquez will probably start tonight.

However you look at the stats, Brasil has won 18 of their last 20 & win some 70% at the WC finals. Nevertheless, I've got the fair line @ 1.63, not adjusted for home ground. H2H over the last 10 years surprisingly even at 4-4(friendlies & competitive matches).

Nice write ups and I appreciate the occasional free pick for your twitter followers. 

Thanks Casey

Group B: Holland-Australia

The Dutch played a good game vs Spain, but 5-1 scoreline is doesn't really represent what was going on on the pitch. Spain was the better team in the first half & took the early lead. They had another 100% chance to make it 2-0, but Silva(I think) tried to be pretty & Classen maed the great save. Then Van Persie scored an unbelievable header & they went into the break on even terms. After that it was all downhill for Spain, although ine of the goals Holland scored, IMO, was from a clear foul on Casillas. They can apprch this game playing their best or rotating & saving themselves for Chile, but eirther way they will play to win as that almost 100% guarantees them the first place in the group and a R16 vs either Mexico or Croatia.

Australia fought hard in their opening game, but they are a limited team. A more serious one would punish the funny tactics Chile played. Even with a 2-1 lead late they were attacking like crazy & that just doesn't work vs a proper opponent. Their RB Franjic is out, which could be a problem for them a I don't see a 2nd natural RB on the roster(I could be wrong here, Australian team isn't my strong point TBH). This game is the WC finals for this team, because if they lose, they are out of the tournament.

It's hard to see how Australia will get anything here, they just don't have enough quality on their roster, defending or going froward. The Franjic missing could be a big problem, as he was also providing (some of) the crosses for Cahill. Even if he was healthy & Holland rotated their team, if Holland again play the 5-3-2, their chances to get the needed win are very slim at best.

Group B: Spain-Chile

Spain got trashed by Holland and now have to fight the historical odds stacked against them and even if they make it Brasil will most likely be waiting in the R16. They actually did an OK job in the first half, but the great Van Perise header changed everything. There will be a couple of changes in their line up, but Casillas will be starting regardless of his poor showing in the first game & IMO that's a good thing. Pedro will most likely be in the line up, too, IMO one good thing. Koke && Fabregas are also in contention.

Chile played ultra offensive vs Australia which could've cost them the game, but they will be more balanced in this game. 3-4-1-2(3-5-2) with Valdivia  starting on the bench & Vidal in a more offensive role it's obvious that they will look to score, but not forget about the defense as well.

It's actually a do or die game for both, with Spain needing the win a little bit more after Holland beat Australia. Spain are the better team here, Chile aren't as good in counters as Holland & I think they should squeeze out a close win, but the downside is the Europeans have yet to play 1 good game vs a team from another continent.

Group A: Cameroon-Croatia

The Croats played a good first 20 minutes & the last 15 minutes. In between they were on the ropes, but it's hard to say how that game would finish if Brasil didn't get the penalty as gift from the ref. Mandjukic is back after serving his suspension, Modric is likely starting despite picking up a knock & Pranjic will be on the LB position after coming back from injury.

Cameroon were totally outplayed by Mexico & there's a big question what they can change to make things better. Etoo is out, which on paper is a huge blow, but he was almost invisible in the first game.

Both teams need the points after losing the first game, but Croatia still has some chances to go through even if they draw. Mandjukic coming back is huge boost & even with Etoo out the Croats shouldn't be below evens. The European teams continue to underperform(Spain down 0-2 as I'm writing this), but the Africans have somehow managed to be an even bigger disappointment so far IMO.

Sammir is in the starting line up instead of Kovacic for the Croats & along with Pranjic on the LB instead of Vrsajko, they are thinking they need to win this game. If they draw, they need to beat Mexico by 2 in their last match to go through, which seems a bit far fetched considering what we've seen so far & Kovac seems to be thinking the same at the moment.

Sensational job in the first round BB.
Let's keep the $ rolling in.

Group C: Colombia-Ivory Coast

The Colombians had an easy task vs Greece in the first game, but thing also went their way with the early goal. They won 3-0, but haven't played remarkable well. It was more a case of Greece not showing up really. Some injury issues are still present with Bacca still out, but Guarin is back & should start. Although it wasn't a magical game from them, they shown they aren't a one man team & that no Falcao isn't as big of a problem as expected. The support from  the stands was great & all SA teams are practically playing home games. This was the first WC game for all of these guy & the learning curve will have to be steep for the success to continue.

IC was nowhere to be seen for the fist 2/3 of the game vs Japan, then Droghba came on & everything changed. They scored 2 in space of 2 minutes, from crosses from the right which looked like carbon copies of each other. It's still a question weather Droghba will be starting today, the rest we saw was pretty much the best they have.

Both teams should be happy with point today, which will most likely result in a slightly more cautious approach from them. Both teams will again look to exploit the flanks, but both should also be prepared for the other one trying to do that. I can't understand all the love for IC I'm seeing, but they can hardly play any worse than their first game.

I said it many times, the African teams are so far the biggest disappointment IMO, so there's no way I could  pull a trigger on them below +1. No H2H between the two, but Pekermann has beaten IC at the helm of Argentina in '06. IC is 6-1 over in their 7 finals games.

Watching England vs Italy reminded me of Liverpool games last season, which isn't a surprise considerin Gerrard, Sterling & Sturrage were in the starting line up. In hard conditions that were in Manaus, they played well & it was IMO the lack of experience that cost them the game. The speed of their forward line is amazing & so far I haven't seen a back line that could contain them for 90 minutes. On the other hand their back line was a bit shaky on occasion.

Uruguay looks to be a team on the way down, but even considering that they played a below par game vs Costa Rica. Suarez still isn't fit & they have some injury problems with their CDs which could be a good thing for them as they were pretty shaky in the first game( the prep games too) & Muslera hasn't been brimming with confidence either, but I've seen them play up to their opposition too many times to just write them off.

Both teams need the points after losing the first game, although England look to be in much better position if they draw here. England with the H2H edge in WC finals, but those games were so long ago hardly anyone remembers they were even played.

So it looks like this game will be down to how well the English contain Cavani because Forlan is nowhere near what he used to be & with Uruguay being tactically way below Italy it will take some individual class to make something happen.

Group E: Switzerland-France

The French had an easy game in the first round, but even though they played vs 10 men for the better part of the match they were dangerous 11 on 11 & IMO it was just a matter of time when they will score and secure the points. No changes to the line up for them probably.

I expected more from Switzerland TBH. They won 2-1 & had a goal wrongfully disallowed, but the way they performed was far from impressive. Their flanks, left one especially were almost one way traffic in the wrong direction. Xhaka also wasn't doing a good job(in both directions). Shaqiri looked completely out of form. The back line looked shaky. All of these guys do lack the experience of WC finals, but it looked to be more than just that. Hitzfeld seems to agree with me & Mehemedi will replace Stocker and Seferovic could also start.

From a math point of view, both teams will be happy with draw, France a little bit more because of better goal difference, but both have games with "lesser" opposition left in the last round. Swiss team will have to pull of an "Uruguay" & press high for 90 minutes if they want to win this one, but I doubt they will be playing that way. It's more likely that Hitzfeld will choose to put men behind the ball, let Frances back line have the ball & try to shorten the pitch, as this was his first option vs (much) stronger opposition in the past.

Group E: Honduras-Ecuador

Honduras were completely outplayed in the firs game & the red card didn't help either. As a result Palacios is out today & he's probably their best player. They won't approach this in the ultra defensive match like the first one but if they lose, they are out.

Ecuador had some good moments in their first game, but nowhere near enough to even earn a draw. Now they are supposed to be a huge fav for some reason I don't get it. They aren't a power house, not even in the same neighbourhood TBH. They have some quality advantage, but just because all the SA teams have been overperforming it doesn't mean it will continue in every game.

If this game was played in Ecuador I'd understand the -1 line, but it isn't. The end.

Group F: Argentina-Iran

The Argies played a weird first game. Sabella decided on a 5-3-2(3-5-2) formation to open the game & it was B&H who should've led at the half. 2nd half saw him switch back t their usual 4-3-3 & they (completely) controlled the game as B&H couldn't do much, although they did finally score late in the game. The 4-3-3 will surely be their starting formation vs Iran.

Iran played well against a somewhat limited Nigerian team, who as expected had problems due to the lack of a creative midfielder. Their back line was shaky on occasion, but overall, did a decent job. The team played nicely together & even had some chances to snatch more than a point. It's hard imagining them setting up any different for today's game.

The class difference is huge obviously & it will be down to how Argentina approach this game. I'm sure everyone in their camp already has the 3 points penciled into their tally & I wouldn't be surprised if they underestimate Iran somewhat. On the other hand although Messi doesn't look on top of his game, he will be much happier playing in a 4-3-3 from the 1st minute. Argentina will once again have huge support from the stands, playing a home game effectively.

Nice write ups

Awaiting ur Germany Ghana writeup eagerly 

Group G: Germany-Ghana

Germany had a good vs Portugal, but 4-0 was a bit too much. Nevertheless, they are looked the best of the largely disappointing Europeans. 4-2-3-1 with a false 9 was the choice in the first game & it will most likely be again. They were playing a bit more directly than I expected them to & Muller on the wing with Ozil i the center was a nice tactical surprise.

Ghana lost the first game vs USA, but deserved a point (at least). USA scored after 26 seconds and that of course changed the whole flow of the game, but they were looking very open for counters, but USA played total defense & weren't interested to even cross the midfield line.

There is a quality gap between the teams but not as big as the line suggests. Although if the Germans score early this could again finish 4-0.

Group F: B&H-Nigeria

B&H played well in hte opening 45 minutes vs Argentina & deserved to go into the break with a lead, but it was the other way round due to the early own goal. The 2nd half wasn't nearly as impressive & the Messi goal killed them off. They have a nice team, but they could also underestimate Nigeria. Many things will depend on how Susic will set up his tactics, a change back to their 4-4-2 is expected here.

Nigeria didn't look good vs Iran, but we saw Argentina having (big) problems vs Iran also. B&H won't put 10 men behind the ball which will give them more space, but as already mentioned they don't have a creative midfielder & that's their biggest flaw.

Neither defense is the better part of their team with B&H having a good man between the posts, while Nigeria have some question marks around their keeper.

Unless some weird tactical idea from the coaches changes everything(like Low putting 4 CDs in the back line vs Ghana !?!?), we should see a good game. Dzeko & Ibisevic can be a threat to anyone & the Nigerians will have their chances too.

B&H is still in a good position to qualify for the next round even if they get a draw, after Argies manged to beat Iran earlier today.

Great analysis, Composite..  you were spot on with this one, particularly with Mexico.  They have been my sleeper here in this WC, and as you pointed out, have been a different animal under this new coach.   Have them at even money to advance out of the group, but this Croatia team scares me..  This is a 50/50 game IMO.

croatia will win this. dont overthink it.

Group H: Belgium-Russia

The Belgium team had a scare i their first game when Algeria played a perfect 45 minutes, but couldn't hold on when Wilmots started to mix things up in the 2nd half. The Algerian bunker tactics were exposed when Belgium kicked into higher gear when Mertens & Fellaini came on. They will again set up in a 4-2-3-1 & with Russia not playing 10 men behind the ball, it will be easier for them to make something happen. Right now they cold probably use Benteke, as Lukaku is better when he has space & that showed in the first game, but he isn't there so no point in looking at "what ifs".

Russia didn't do a good job in their first match, but they did deserve a draw i the end. Akinfeev was shaky from the first minute & eventually made a huge mistake. I don't expect him to play as badly again, he's should be one of the better keepers on the tournament(at least o paper). There were a few surprises in the starting 11, but Capello wants to do this in an old Italian school way.

Both teams will be happy with a draw, with Korea/Algeria on deck, but I do expect Belgium to have a better game as Russia will play defensively, but won't park the bus. Belgium would be foolish not to put some shots on target early & check on how Akinfeev is doing today.