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Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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Posted: #1
Czech's Road to Riches  System 101 (haha)


Guys,

I want to get serious about bringing down the books.  That's what this thread is going to be devoted to. 

I've already posted the gist of my system in smoothD's thread, and still have mixed emotions about sharing this info with everyone, but that's what this thread will be devoted to, focusing on this system and what it produces.  I've already met some good members in the other thread and think we can all benefit from this discussion.

The beauty of my system is it works by 3 simple rules.  I have developed lots of tweaks and sub-rules for myself and how I should work the system, etc, but the system itself is 3 simple rules.

CZECH'S SYSTEM (basketball and football)

Criteria for plays: (every play must meet all 3 criteria, and every game that meets the criteria must be bet, and every game that does not meet the criteria must not be bet. No exceptions)

1) There must be significant, progressive, directional line action in our direction.  (more details on different line moves, which ones we take and which ones do not qualify, etc to follow)

2) The line action (and play) must be in opposition to what the busters are favoring (more details on who the busters are, and what percentages we look for, etc to follow)

3) We must personally approve of the play (more details on what this means to follow)

-- that's it.

Now, there's a lot more to it than that, but that is the intro.  And it really is this simple.  This system produced a sick amount of winners in the regular NBA season, got off to a really rough start in Game 1 of the playoffs, but has since recovered to 9-6 in the post season, going 5-0 in last couple of days.  

Currently at 9-6 and we're at 60%, and my goal in this thread and with this system is maintain that pace, and hopefully exceed it. 

Okay.

Sub-rules of engagement:

1) Don't do anything stupid.
2) Follow the system.  Refer to rule 1 at all times. 
3) Bet every single game indicated by the system, for a set amount
4) Do not bet ANY game disqualified by the system, period.
5) Stay away from PK lines.
6) Only line moves of a full point or more qualify.
7) Always obey rule 3, and follow your gut.
8) Be disciplined.
9) Don't be biased. 
10) No-play the moves that move back again.  

--I'm sure I'm forgetting a few things, and haven't gotten into halftime rules yet, but this will get us started.  

In the following day or 2 I'm gonna iron out the rest of the details, and then we're gonna track how we do.  Discussion is welcomed.  

I haven't introduced myself really, but people can check out the other thread that I've been posting in if they'd like.  The system is 9-6 in the post season so far and we're moving forward from there.

Ready to get started in this thread tomorrow.  It's gonna be epic and we're gonna bring them books down hard.




 
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Posted: #2
i dont like rules but good luck
 
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Okay, line movement.  This is the essence of what makes the system work. 

I do not attempt to understand these sports better than Vegas, the pros, or even the busters.  There are people out there that know every intricate detail about these teams, and players, and coaches, and refs.  I do not, and never will.  I don't even want to.

The goal of my system is to follow the sharps.  Just like there are know-it-alls in Vegas, that set the lines, so also are there sharps, that together with the line-makers, move the lines.

This is where we come in.  We detect these plays, based on the line action, and we follow the sharps. 

This works for a couple reasons.  It also brings us to rule 2 of the system, opposing the busters. Look, public plays hit all of the time. Sometimes you see a line move towards who the public is betting, and it hits. That's great.

However, we don't know if those line moves are sharp, or simply induced by the public betting them.  That is why we only focus on the moves that go AGAINST what the busters are betting.  If Vegas knows all of the public is taking Chicago -8, and you see the line move to -6.5, this line move is happening for a reason, and not because of the public money.

We also stay away from what I call ADJUSTED lines.  You can see these in the line history sometimes, where a line will be at 189 all day and then all of a sudden jumps to 188 or 190.5.  Often times these lines are adjusted, due to an injury or something of that nature, or some other external factor.  We avoid these.

What we're looking for are PROGRESSIVE line moves, in opposition to the busters, that indicate SHARP ACTION.  That's how the system works.

Okay, I'm tired, but tomorrow I will explain rule 2 in better detail.  It's just as important as rule 1, and I have discovered some sub-rules that add a lot of value to how we look at the busters, depending on whether it's a favorite or dog, home or away, etc.  

Stay tuned...
 
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Posted: #4
Forget it gonna finish this now.  Don't want the whole thread to be me explaining the system anyways, so gotta get it over with.

2) Opposing the Busters.  This is paramount to success.  Vegas manipulates lines, based on what they like, vs what they know the money is gonna bet.  They have to be careful though, because when they put out lines too soft they can get raped by the sharps.  Again, this is where we come into play.

The system only qualifies picks that go against the consensus.

Typically when I'm looking at a dog as a play, I need to see 57% or more on the favorite, but preferably 60%+.  

It can be a little trickier though when it's the other way around, considering a favorite.  The public doesn't often bet dogs, so when you see 50%+ on the dog, this is a higher-than-average concentration of busters on the dog, and the favorite can be considered for a play.  Anything over 45% is high for a dog, but typically I like to see 53%+ on the dog to qualify the favorite as a system play.

The same is pretty true for totals.  On an under play I like to see over 57% on the over, and when considering an over, I like to see a minimum of 53%+ on the under.

Again, these percentages pertain to who the busters like.  If I am considering an under, and 52% are on the over, this does not qualify.  But if the busters are 58% on the over than it does qualify, as long as the play meets 1 and 3 also.

Now if I like an over, I only need 53% or more on the under to take the over.  Same with a favorite, need at least 53% on the dog.
 
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Posted: #5
cool story GL
 
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Posted: #6
That sounds like a lot of info, but really that's it.  Last but not least is Rule 3, you must approve of the play yourself, and by this I mean follow your gut.  This doesn't mean only take the plays on teams you like.  I have used the system to bet against my favorite teams, and I ride teams I hate.  We are not biased.  But still, if your gut says don't do it, then don't do it.
 
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Posted: #7
Tomorrow we get started.  I hope we can get a good discussion going in here.  Just tonight, another member shared some info with me about some other sites I can use to track public money.  This is great, as before I had only been using Covers consensus data for rule 2, and this was not good enough, since they aren't betting real money. 

I should note though that I was doing that before and it worked just fine.  We're looking to break the 60% mark long term though and so I want to get this down to a science and bring down the books. 

I'm starting at $200 per game, and at 60% in 107 games I double my bankroll.  I'm gonna try and double it 5 times over the next 535 games to close to $100,000.  Let's get started.
 
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Posted: #8
Good Luck Czech!
 
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Posted: #9
First game I'm looking at today is the Clips under.  60% of busters are on the over, and the total has dropped from 187.5 to 184.5.

Watch this line closer to game time.  If this total shoots back up I might lay off but this is looking very sharp right now.

Clippers under to the bank 
 
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Posted: #10
Thanks SmoothD! Gonna try and get W6 for week and W4 on Survivor with this one. 
 
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Posted: #11

Good luck.  You spent a lot of time explaining this......thanks!

 
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Posted: #12
For the record I like the Over in the Memphis-Clippers game. Reason: 8 out of their last 10 head to head games they have scored over 185 points. That's 80%. I can't ignore that number. Good luck to everybody!
 
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Good luck to all no matter which side you take. Thanks for the info smooth. 

Nevertheless, the reason I started this thread was to discuss and track my system, and this is definitely qualifying as a sharp play. 

Clips under to the bizzank 
 
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Posted: #14
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=1010&sub=100956542 

(go to the end Of the long thread for current discussions on the system and others' strategies)
 
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Posted: #15
is there a pick coming ?
 
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Posted: #16
System pick #2 

Memphis under 91 second half (187 for the game)
 
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Guys:

I haven't gotten to this yet, only laying out the basics of my system, but the real reason I started this thread is to track the performance of an experiment I am running to use this system to accomplish a few goals, ending in a $100,000 bankroll. 

My first goal is to meet or exceed 60%. At 60% -110 games the EV is roughly 14%. 

I am starting with a $3,000 bankroll at betting $200 per game. I only have 15u bankroll so hoping variance doesn't bight me in the ass. 

At $200 per game at 60% it should take about 107 games to double the bankroll. At this point I double my bets. 

It's going to take around 550 games to get up to $100,000, at which point I'll be betting around $3200 per game. Getting started today, and going to post not only my record but profits/losses also. 

2 plays so far today for $200 each, Memphis under and Memphis under second half. 
 
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Posted: #18
Somebody needs to pimp slap both of these teams the way they're shooting. We have gone 11 min combined without a FG and Free Throw shooting is worth than my son's middle school team. Pathetic.
 
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Posted: #19
*worse* than my son's middle school team.
 
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Posted: #20
You have too much time on your hands... Good luck with your sytem though.... Enjoy it while it lasts...
 
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Good luck, Czech! I think the system will work if you only observe your rules and don't reach too far for picks that don't qualify. Just remember that the playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. The system seems solid to me, though. Again, good luck with it. I'll check back later, brother.
 
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Posted: #22
SYSTEM 2-0 in this thread, and for the today, 11-6 for the week. 

Good start! 
 
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Posted: #23
#8545
Posted: 5/5/2012 10:34:14 PM
SYSTEM PASSES W7, ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF CAPTOWN

Once passing W7, the riders stopped to make camp for the night.  It took a lot of patience not to try and reach Captown, but some reconnaissance must be done first. 

Counter-espionage agents from Captown were sent out to try and find the group moving in, but we aren't burning any fires tonight and will go undetected. 

Tomorrow maybe we will go in. There will be no mercy for the murderess forces that dwell there. Those savages fall tomorrow. 

Tomorrow we ride hard and break through their defenses 
QUOTE
 
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For anyone new to following, system booked W7 today. 11-6 for the week.  Starting bankroll $3k, betting $200 per game. 

 2-0 in this thread
+$360 for the day
+$360 in thread 
+$3360 total  bankroll 
 
 
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You are talking about Reverse line movement yes?
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