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Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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TexansSwagga

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 478

Posted: May. 13, 2012 - 9:57 PM ET #1001

Nice job Razor!

Here is to u! Cheers!

Smooth D I thank u to one for u as well

Now I'm feeling

Good

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2Team_Parlay

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 10294

Posted: May. 14, 2012 - 12:09 AM ET #1002

as of now according to vegas insider it looks like there is 2 plays from 101 on the thunder game...

lakers opened +6.5 its up to +7.5 with 57% on thunder

o/u opened at 193 and its down to 191.5 with 66% on the over

so its looking like lakers and under will be plays via 101

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genosteaks05

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 146

Posted: May. 14, 2012 - 12:25 AM ET #1003

2Team,

The first one doesn't qualify as of now with those numbers. With 57% on Thunder it should go that way. Were looking for reverse line movement. Unless you meant to say 57% on Lakers then your right. Vegas Insider is a great site

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2Team_Parlay

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 10294

Posted: May. 14, 2012 - 12:26 AM ET #1004

geno,

yes u r right i read the numbers wrong, my mistake

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2Team_Parlay

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 10294

Posted: May. 14, 2012 - 12:27 AM ET #1005

fucking bacardi got me seeing shit

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circa_clown

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2009

Posts: 13

Posted: May. 14, 2012 - 1:55 AM ET #1006

Quote Originally Posted by yysmer:

I'm kinda doing the same thing. I think one important thing is to figure out whether the line movement is to balance the public or it's because of sharps' expectation. One different I found is that in NBA playoffs there are significant line movements (a whole point like from 178 to 177) 5~15 minutes before games, but I couldn't find them in baseball. These "game time" line movements have been extremely accurate so far.

I don't go that deep into it. In fact, most times I don't watch the games.. I just don't have the time for it. It may be profitable or it may not be.

Personally, I think it is all the public that is on the fence about the bet they wanna make that run to the counter at the last second. I would keep an eye on it if you think it is good..

I have seen the line moves just before the game starts but they have been unreliable for me..

In baseball it might be a different story though.. say there is a progressive line move and it moves a little in the direction you don't want it (ie .5pt u when it has been moving up, or the vig on the o/u 6.5 goes to 6.5o-120 and you are looking for 6)..

In baseball, I have noticed there is a lot of activity just before the game starts, something like hour before the game starts. If your progressive line moves reverses in this time, you can bet that game without worrying.

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RodWoman

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 1472

Posted: May. 14, 2012 - 10:42 AM ET #1007

Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Hey guys for anyone wondering what all this 2.0 shit is about, it's basically 101 + any new ideas and things I'm trying since posting the original system.

101 is solid as concrete. I already know it and I think you guys are realizing that too.

The problem is only that it doesn't produce plays every game, like we want sometimes. I have missed sharp plays like on May 8th, when I picked 4-1 and disqualified them all due to late line movements, or because the line didn't really move much even though busters were pounding the other sides.

If you re-read the rules from page 1 of this thread, you will see that we need significant progressive movement and ALSO need a clear consensus on the other side.

What does significant mean though? a pt or more? What about % of busters on other side?

We can all see when 60% are on side A, and side B moves 1 pt+, it's an easy 101 play. No mystery there. But what about when it moves 1/2 point, and/or there's 58% on other side, or it doesn't moe at all but there's 70% on other side?

This is where I saw 101 needing a little work. 101 is fine ALL BY ITSELF, with no work needed, as long as you're willing to sit back and wait for the locks.

If you want to call the closer ones though then 101 needs a little tweaking.

One very important thing I saw 101 needing was a grading system. Not all plays are created equal. There are clear system plays, and that's fine, but you really don't se plays too often like LA under last night, and Clips under today.

Both those games moved FIVE POINTS with busters pounding the other side. This was screaming to me UNLOAD YOUR BR on this pick! Those should def get more $ on them then normal system plays.

So the grading system is important, if I get it right that is.

Look at today, system "2.0". On first glance it seems to have under-performed 101, but let's look closer.

101 gave us the Mem under, 1-0. That's fine, but under the original rules all picks were bet equally for $200

Now today I used 2.0, which is 1-2 so far, but I bet $100 each on Mem and Mem second half (1u each) and I bet $400 on the under.

I didn't define this earlier but I ruled that all 2.0 plays that didn't qualify under 101 would be 1u plays. As a matter of common sense though according to this rule then all 101 plays should be a minimum of 2u ($200), and today's under was 4u.

So under 101 you woulda bet a standard unit and been up .9u for the day.

Under 2.0 I bet 1u Mem, 1u Mem 2H, and 4u the under. 1-2 and +1.6u.

So I actually made almost twice as much money using 2.0 as I would have on 101, even though it went 1-2.

Does this mean 2.0 is better? Not necessarily, although it made me more money today. My point to all of this is just that 101, while great, still needs a little work, and the grading system is super important. So back to the drawing board.

2.0 is getting scratched. It had a profitable record anyways and looking at 2-2 again today so haters can't say shit about me scratching it. I'm redefining a couple things about 2H etc and defining the grading system and launching 3.0 sometime in the future.

An old saying, "DAZZLE 'EM WITH BRILLIANCE, AND BAFFLE 'EM WITH BULLSHIT". You are the master!