Very good points Proffessor. It was a very close game, just glad i was on BSU +3 tonight. I have to admit i am way to "action minded" and not enough "investment minded". But i actually thought BSU +3 was a good number cause i guessed this would be a field goal game either way. And in that case, i will gladly take 3 points. Im interest in hearing more of your thoughts on capping, professor. I read you write ups on your profile and they are very interesting to read.
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Very good points Proffessor. It was a very close game, just glad i was on BSU +3 tonight. I have to admit i am way to "action minded" and not enough "investment minded". But i actually thought BSU +3 was a good number cause i guessed this would be a field goal game either way. And in that case, i will gladly take 3 points. Im interest in hearing more of your thoughts on capping, professor. I read you write ups on your profile and they are very interesting to read.
Very good points Proffessor. It was a very close game, just glad i was on BSU +3 tonight. I have to admit i am way to "action minded" and not enough "investment minded". But i actually thought BSU +3 was a good number cause i guessed this would be a field goal game either way. And in that case, i will gladly take 3 points. Im interest in hearing more of your thoughts on capping, professor. I read you write ups on your profile and they are very interesting to read.
I am glad you won tonight. There are 40,000 plays a year in the major sports. You must be patient. Some games will stick out .Those are the ones you should "invest on". I have had a good handle on bowl games in the past. This year I will be passing a lot of them. Kirk Herbstreit who is speaking as I write this has hit every game this year. He is one of two sports announcers that is a good handicapper in my humble opinion. He likes Hawaii tomorrow. If I had to play the game that is who I would play. N D is favorite. That point spread is one that they would have lost the last 9 bowl games. The game is being played in Hawaii and that is worth a whole touchdown to Hawaii. Charley the genious coach of Notre Dame," that was what he was called in his first year of coaching "has lost 4 of the last 5 spreads and almost blew the Navy game with a 17 point lead with just a few minutes to go. They are going backward while Hawaii has played better throughout the year. If you made me play the game it would be Hawaii
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Quote Originally Posted by kbit:
Very good points Proffessor. It was a very close game, just glad i was on BSU +3 tonight. I have to admit i am way to "action minded" and not enough "investment minded". But i actually thought BSU +3 was a good number cause i guessed this would be a field goal game either way. And in that case, i will gladly take 3 points. Im interest in hearing more of your thoughts on capping, professor. I read you write ups on your profile and they are very interesting to read.
I am glad you won tonight. There are 40,000 plays a year in the major sports. You must be patient. Some games will stick out .Those are the ones you should "invest on". I have had a good handle on bowl games in the past. This year I will be passing a lot of them. Kirk Herbstreit who is speaking as I write this has hit every game this year. He is one of two sports announcers that is a good handicapper in my humble opinion. He likes Hawaii tomorrow. If I had to play the game that is who I would play. N D is favorite. That point spread is one that they would have lost the last 9 bowl games. The game is being played in Hawaii and that is worth a whole touchdown to Hawaii. Charley the genious coach of Notre Dame," that was what he was called in his first year of coaching "has lost 4 of the last 5 spreads and almost blew the Navy game with a 17 point lead with just a few minutes to go. They are going backward while Hawaii has played better throughout the year. If you made me play the game it would be Hawaii
For those interested I will post late smart money moves for the Hawaii N D game if they exist and I can get that information. I do not play smart money moves myself but they hit about 57-58% of all games. Sometimes a game will get hit on both sides. Yesterday in basketball Wyoming got hit early by smart money. As the game approached UClA was hit by a stream of smart money from 4 different places. The latter smart money moves won out. Wyoming moved 1 1 /2 to the negative early on and then Ucla moved 3 1/2 points. That is a lot. Some of that was public money and some was smart money.
I will defind smart money and public money. Public money comes from accounts that are LOSERS in the long term. It does not mean a game is a bad play when they bet!! It just means they play certain types of teams( usually favorites) and are doomed to lose in the LONG RUN. They have a track record of losing. Sometimes they hit more then half their games but are poor money managers so they actually do an ok job of handicapping. Smart money moves come from accounts that CASH IN more then they loss. Off shore bookies pay close attention to these people. Sometimes a line will move counter to the total money being played when a number of these people have the same side . They represent about 3% of the total players. I do not make any plays when knowing these players have acted but I have on occasions not make a play on a game I intended to play the other side. One such example was a Texas Tech basketball game played 2 games ago. I altered my play in the last 15 minutes. Smart money was heavily played and something had been bothering about this game anyway. It cost me 12% to kill the play because Matchbook too was all over the other side and that was the best I could do. I so happen to know somebody who is close to the Tex Tech program and called him. He surprisingly gave me some information about Tex Tech that altered my play.
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For those interested I will post late smart money moves for the Hawaii N D game if they exist and I can get that information. I do not play smart money moves myself but they hit about 57-58% of all games. Sometimes a game will get hit on both sides. Yesterday in basketball Wyoming got hit early by smart money. As the game approached UClA was hit by a stream of smart money from 4 different places. The latter smart money moves won out. Wyoming moved 1 1 /2 to the negative early on and then Ucla moved 3 1/2 points. That is a lot. Some of that was public money and some was smart money.
I will defind smart money and public money. Public money comes from accounts that are LOSERS in the long term. It does not mean a game is a bad play when they bet!! It just means they play certain types of teams( usually favorites) and are doomed to lose in the LONG RUN. They have a track record of losing. Sometimes they hit more then half their games but are poor money managers so they actually do an ok job of handicapping. Smart money moves come from accounts that CASH IN more then they loss. Off shore bookies pay close attention to these people. Sometimes a line will move counter to the total money being played when a number of these people have the same side . They represent about 3% of the total players. I do not make any plays when knowing these players have acted but I have on occasions not make a play on a game I intended to play the other side. One such example was a Texas Tech basketball game played 2 games ago. I altered my play in the last 15 minutes. Smart money was heavily played and something had been bothering about this game anyway. It cost me 12% to kill the play because Matchbook too was all over the other side and that was the best I could do. I so happen to know somebody who is close to the Tex Tech program and called him. He surprisingly gave me some information about Tex Tech that altered my play.
I will be having some plays for the bowl games starting Saturday. I have pased the last few games including Memp, Ari, Tcu and Hawaii as stated. Also I am deleting the game Friday as a play. Fla Atlantic is no longer a play. I repeat, Fla Atlantic is no longer a play ! I am passing the game. I will have two games Saturday. There will be as many as 18 games I will play. One of those games is a very very strong play. I will have it as a super rare 20 unit play. Notre Dame found themselves in their bowl game. I passed on the game but would have played Hawaii had I been forced to. When you lose 9 straight bowl games and are favored by 2 1/2 you are asking a team to do what they have not done in a long time. Its almost like betting on the Cubs to win the World Series.
Tomorrow the Celtics are a play in basketball against the Lakers
Happy holidays to all.
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I will be having some plays for the bowl games starting Saturday. I have pased the last few games including Memp, Ari, Tcu and Hawaii as stated. Also I am deleting the game Friday as a play. Fla Atlantic is no longer a play. I repeat, Fla Atlantic is no longer a play ! I am passing the game. I will have two games Saturday. There will be as many as 18 games I will play. One of those games is a very very strong play. I will have it as a super rare 20 unit play. Notre Dame found themselves in their bowl game. I passed on the game but would have played Hawaii had I been forced to. When you lose 9 straight bowl games and are favored by 2 1/2 you are asking a team to do what they have not done in a long time. Its almost like betting on the Cubs to win the World Series.
Tomorrow the Celtics are a play in basketball against the Lakers
Wow Professor, I really wish you were not backing off your FAU pick. What made you change your mind. I got on FAU and am pretty confident in them. I was actually at the Motor City Bowl 2 years ago when CMU beat Mid Tenn St and was partying in Downtown Detroit last year when CMU barely lost to Purdue. I think CMU might be a little tired of going to Detroit every December for this game and might not take it seriously. Maybe ill off set my FAU wager with an over wager. I know you aren't to big on totals, but this one should go over. A lot of CMU's games do and with a couple of FAU defensive starters suspended it should come through. Well i wish you were still confident in your pick but im staying with it(cause i have no choice now). BOL in the future.
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Wow Professor, I really wish you were not backing off your FAU pick. What made you change your mind. I got on FAU and am pretty confident in them. I was actually at the Motor City Bowl 2 years ago when CMU beat Mid Tenn St and was partying in Downtown Detroit last year when CMU barely lost to Purdue. I think CMU might be a little tired of going to Detroit every December for this game and might not take it seriously. Maybe ill off set my FAU wager with an over wager. I know you aren't to big on totals, but this one should go over. A lot of CMU's games do and with a couple of FAU defensive starters suspended it should come through. Well i wish you were still confident in your pick but im staying with it(cause i have no choice now). BOL in the future.
Saturday starts with the West Virginia -North Carolina game.
This is an easy call. North Carolina has not been to a bowl in 3 years. That is not good. The goal of these type teams is to GET to a bowl game . They have been to only 1 bowl game in the last 5 years, losing to Boston College 37 -24 as a 2 point favorite. North Carolina faded in the last half of the season. They beat a fading Duke team by 1/2 point , lost to North Carolina State by a whooping 42 points and lost to Md. by 5 in the last 3 games. They averaged losing to the spread by 15 1/2 in these 3 games . An inexperienced bowl team combined with a fading team makes N. C. a not so good prospect. They have gone down 3 points to the spread since it opened for this game. West Virginia on the other hand has played somewhat better as the season went on. They have played 7 bowl bound teams in their last 8 games this year losing only too 2 of those teams. One went into overtime the other was lost by 4 points.They have averaged beating these 7 teams by 7 points. West Virginia has had a great bowl run in the last 3 years beating Geogia, Georgia Tech and a very good Oklahoma team. There are some key older players on this team who are highly motivated to go out a winner. This is a 10 star play. Games like this cover about 70% of the time.
The next game is the Florida State - Wisconsin game. Florida State has played 8 straight bowl bound teams losing to 3 of them and losing to the spread to 4 of them. The 4 spread loses were to hot teams with a combined 34 -9 spread record. Losing the last game to Florida in the last game is nothing to be ashamed of. The number 1 ranked team won all spreads in the last half of the season. They beat Maryland by 32 to the spread in the game before that. Florida State was a very predictable team losing to hot teams but beating the rest. Florida State badly wants to redeem themselves for the embarrassing loss to Kentucky in last year's bowl game.
Wisconsin the other hand has a challenging season. The 3 best teams they played they lost to the spread and got blown out to Penn State 48 -7, then Iowa 38 -7 and then, at the time , a struggling Ohio State team 20-17. They ended the season barely beating Minnesota as a 13 1/2 point favorite and should have lost to lower division Cal Poly scoring 2 late td's to beat them by a point. It is really bad to have played 2 lesser teams as badly as they did going into a bowl game. This is a 8 unit play for me. The spread was -5 1/2 when I played this game.
The next game California - Miami is a game of 2 teams going opposite directions. California beat the spread by an average 9 to their last 2 games and Miami lost their last 3 games by an average of 9. Miami in my opinion is not well coached and they have showed little when playing better teams.Also they lost 3 games straight up as a favorite and barely won as a 17 point favorite to a lower Div 1 team , that being Central Florida.
They are a dull team and have underacheived in their last 2 years and did not even get to a bowl last year ! As for California they have something to offer. They were a hot spread team. They are peaking at the end of the year. They played USC as good as anybody short of Oreg. St this year. They were 9 -3 against the spread and showed some grit throughout the year. The only thing I do not like is the spread . They are favored by 8. I make this a 7 unit play though.
For the bowl year I am 3-0 and 30 units ahead .
Wake Forest 15 units
S Miss 10 units
Color St 5 units
I hope we can add to that Saturday!!!!
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No play on the game Friday.I DELETED THE PLAY
Saturday starts with the West Virginia -North Carolina game.
This is an easy call. North Carolina has not been to a bowl in 3 years. That is not good. The goal of these type teams is to GET to a bowl game . They have been to only 1 bowl game in the last 5 years, losing to Boston College 37 -24 as a 2 point favorite. North Carolina faded in the last half of the season. They beat a fading Duke team by 1/2 point , lost to North Carolina State by a whooping 42 points and lost to Md. by 5 in the last 3 games. They averaged losing to the spread by 15 1/2 in these 3 games . An inexperienced bowl team combined with a fading team makes N. C. a not so good prospect. They have gone down 3 points to the spread since it opened for this game. West Virginia on the other hand has played somewhat better as the season went on. They have played 7 bowl bound teams in their last 8 games this year losing only too 2 of those teams. One went into overtime the other was lost by 4 points.They have averaged beating these 7 teams by 7 points. West Virginia has had a great bowl run in the last 3 years beating Geogia, Georgia Tech and a very good Oklahoma team. There are some key older players on this team who are highly motivated to go out a winner. This is a 10 star play. Games like this cover about 70% of the time.
The next game is the Florida State - Wisconsin game. Florida State has played 8 straight bowl bound teams losing to 3 of them and losing to the spread to 4 of them. The 4 spread loses were to hot teams with a combined 34 -9 spread record. Losing the last game to Florida in the last game is nothing to be ashamed of. The number 1 ranked team won all spreads in the last half of the season. They beat Maryland by 32 to the spread in the game before that. Florida State was a very predictable team losing to hot teams but beating the rest. Florida State badly wants to redeem themselves for the embarrassing loss to Kentucky in last year's bowl game.
Wisconsin the other hand has a challenging season. The 3 best teams they played they lost to the spread and got blown out to Penn State 48 -7, then Iowa 38 -7 and then, at the time , a struggling Ohio State team 20-17. They ended the season barely beating Minnesota as a 13 1/2 point favorite and should have lost to lower division Cal Poly scoring 2 late td's to beat them by a point. It is really bad to have played 2 lesser teams as badly as they did going into a bowl game. This is a 8 unit play for me. The spread was -5 1/2 when I played this game.
The next game California - Miami is a game of 2 teams going opposite directions. California beat the spread by an average 9 to their last 2 games and Miami lost their last 3 games by an average of 9. Miami in my opinion is not well coached and they have showed little when playing better teams.Also they lost 3 games straight up as a favorite and barely won as a 17 point favorite to a lower Div 1 team , that being Central Florida.
They are a dull team and have underacheived in their last 2 years and did not even get to a bowl last year ! As for California they have something to offer. They were a hot spread team. They are peaking at the end of the year. They played USC as good as anybody short of Oreg. St this year. They were 9 -3 against the spread and showed some grit throughout the year. The only thing I do not like is the spread . They are favored by 8. I make this a 7 unit play though.
Wow Professor, I really wish you were not backing off your FAU pick. What made you change your mind. I got on FAU and am pretty confident in them. I was actually at the Motor City Bowl 2 years ago when CMU beat Mid Tenn St and was partying in Downtown Detroit last year when CMU barely lost to Purdue. I think CMU might be a little tired of going to Detroit every December for this game and might not take it seriously. Maybe ill off set my FAU wager with an over wager. I know you aren't to big on totals, but this one should go over. A lot of CMU's games do and with a couple of FAU defensive starters suspended it should come through. Well i wish you were still confident in your pick but im staying with it(cause i have no choice now). BOL in the future.
We looked at some things that put this game in the neutral area. There are good games coming up Saturday and the remainder of the week. I am very excited about one game and will make it a 20 unit play.( I have about 2 or 3 of them a year)
I agree with you about this game going over. That is one reason I backed off. In the second half they may not be able to stop each other. Fla Atl was a reccomended play by a group I respect so you may have the right side. Igot the game at C Mich to win by 4 to 10 or an average of 7.
I will give you a good totals method of play later . Remind me. It hits about 62% of the time. I do not like totals as a whole because of overtime in college. I had an under covered by 24 and lost in overtime! On the other hand sometimes the weather causes overs to be a bad play because of wind and playing fields. Playing conditions are on a fine line when the weather turns to rain and cold weather. Also somes fields are badly keep. The N. D. Hawaii game players slipped all day long. Having said why I do not do totals, the very, very best plays are when a game is being played on a muddy field that the teams are lucky to score 20 points between them . There are 3 fields in the MAC that this occurs when conditions are right. Last year Akron played Miami on a unplayable field. Final score 7-0.
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Quote Originally Posted by kbit:
Wow Professor, I really wish you were not backing off your FAU pick. What made you change your mind. I got on FAU and am pretty confident in them. I was actually at the Motor City Bowl 2 years ago when CMU beat Mid Tenn St and was partying in Downtown Detroit last year when CMU barely lost to Purdue. I think CMU might be a little tired of going to Detroit every December for this game and might not take it seriously. Maybe ill off set my FAU wager with an over wager. I know you aren't to big on totals, but this one should go over. A lot of CMU's games do and with a couple of FAU defensive starters suspended it should come through. Well i wish you were still confident in your pick but im staying with it(cause i have no choice now). BOL in the future.
We looked at some things that put this game in the neutral area. There are good games coming up Saturday and the remainder of the week. I am very excited about one game and will make it a 20 unit play.( I have about 2 or 3 of them a year)
I agree with you about this game going over. That is one reason I backed off. In the second half they may not be able to stop each other. Fla Atl was a reccomended play by a group I respect so you may have the right side. Igot the game at C Mich to win by 4 to 10 or an average of 7.
I will give you a good totals method of play later . Remind me. It hits about 62% of the time. I do not like totals as a whole because of overtime in college. I had an under covered by 24 and lost in overtime! On the other hand sometimes the weather causes overs to be a bad play because of wind and playing fields. Playing conditions are on a fine line when the weather turns to rain and cold weather. Also somes fields are badly keep. The N. D. Hawaii game players slipped all day long. Having said why I do not do totals, the very, very best plays are when a game is being played on a muddy field that the teams are lucky to score 20 points between them . There are 3 fields in the MAC that this occurs when conditions are right. Last year Akron played Miami on a unplayable field. Final score 7-0.
Im impressed Professor, it seems like you have a very good understanding on handicapping football. Im very eager to hear how you cap totals. Im not huge into them either but im always game for a play when there is value to be had. I like how you broke down the West Virginia game. When you cap games do you figure out at score for each team and then use that against the spread? Im very curious as to your approach.
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Im impressed Professor, it seems like you have a very good understanding on handicapping football. Im very eager to hear how you cap totals. Im not huge into them either but im always game for a play when there is value to be had. I like how you broke down the West Virginia game. When you cap games do you figure out at score for each team and then use that against the spread? Im very curious as to your approach.
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