I have traditionlly done very well in bowl game picks. One of Saturday's game I like a lot. I think Wake Forest is a strong game. Both teams have totaly opposite type offenses.
Here are some reasons
1 It is a revenge game. Wake Forest lost 24-17 as a 17 1/2 points favorite
2 They had 6 turnovers in that game. Of their 7 interceptions for the year more than half (4) came in that game
3 Of the 3 best teams they played they scored exactly the same amount of points
4 The 2 best teams Navy played they lost N D and Pitt( mild blow out)
5 Navy loves to run and Wake Forest is 20th in the nation against the run giving up only 3.4 yards per carry.
6 Wake Forest is a passing team and Navy's defense is more vulnerable to the passing teams
7 The ACC is a better conference than Navy's independent schedule. They have been toughened up for the rematch
8 Wake Forest will come in wanting to win more. Revenge and that Navy won the Army game which is their highlight every year are opposite motiations. There is always a certain sense of satisfaction when you beat your rival and thus are not as motivated for the next game which is a bowl game.
Do not expect Wake Forest to have 6 turnovers. That was a freak thing. If wake Forest has 2 or less turnovers they should win by 10 or more
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I have traditionlly done very well in bowl game picks. One of Saturday's game I like a lot. I think Wake Forest is a strong game. Both teams have totaly opposite type offenses.
Here are some reasons
1 It is a revenge game. Wake Forest lost 24-17 as a 17 1/2 points favorite
2 They had 6 turnovers in that game. Of their 7 interceptions for the year more than half (4) came in that game
3 Of the 3 best teams they played they scored exactly the same amount of points
4 The 2 best teams Navy played they lost N D and Pitt( mild blow out)
5 Navy loves to run and Wake Forest is 20th in the nation against the run giving up only 3.4 yards per carry.
6 Wake Forest is a passing team and Navy's defense is more vulnerable to the passing teams
7 The ACC is a better conference than Navy's independent schedule. They have been toughened up for the rematch
8 Wake Forest will come in wanting to win more. Revenge and that Navy won the Army game which is their highlight every year are opposite motiations. There is always a certain sense of satisfaction when you beat your rival and thus are not as motivated for the next game which is a bowl game.
Do not expect Wake Forest to have 6 turnovers. That was a freak thing. If wake Forest has 2 or less turnovers they should win by 10 or more
One of the best bowl plays is to play teams that are double digit dogs. I do have present day records but when I went back in the archives a few years ago they covered 65% of the time. If memory serves me right they were 15-8. There is a game today that is a double digit dog game. See what you think.
If I give out any games it will be before I talk to any services. I talk to 3 of them off and on. I will never give out a game they like after I have talked too them though I liked the same side as they did and was influenced by them. That way the game is dated and they will not be supicious. I wanted to give out another game today but could not. I will be giving out more bowl games. The biggest winning cycle I ever had in football was during a bowl season. I was 23 -2. I do not expect that to happen again but I seem to have a good handle on bowl games.
I hope some of you had Wake Forest. They won by 10 as I had handicapped them to do. It was not pretty but they did what they had to.
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One of the best bowl plays is to play teams that are double digit dogs. I do have present day records but when I went back in the archives a few years ago they covered 65% of the time. If memory serves me right they were 15-8. There is a game today that is a double digit dog game. See what you think.
If I give out any games it will be before I talk to any services. I talk to 3 of them off and on. I will never give out a game they like after I have talked too them though I liked the same side as they did and was influenced by them. That way the game is dated and they will not be supicious. I wanted to give out another game today but could not. I will be giving out more bowl games. The biggest winning cycle I ever had in football was during a bowl season. I was 23 -2. I do not expect that to happen again but I seem to have a good handle on bowl games.
I hope some of you had Wake Forest. They won by 10 as I had handicapped them to do. It was not pretty but they did what they had to.
Prof--congrats on your Wake pick...think you gotta admit luck was on your side to cover! As I say, Good Bets lose everyday and Bad Bets win everyday...esp. in Bowls!! Think this game a case in point. Won't cry, won't make excuses...you had the winner, I didn't...the bounces of the ball...
Congrats and continued luck...
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Prof--congrats on your Wake pick...think you gotta admit luck was on your side to cover! As I say, Good Bets lose everyday and Bad Bets win everyday...esp. in Bowls!! Think this game a case in point. Won't cry, won't make excuses...you had the winner, I didn't...the bounces of the ball...
I just found my stat sheet referring to double digit dogs.(I start it at +9 1/2. It was 29 - 13 over the last 10 years. +7 To +9 games are very good also. Two types of teams should be passed though. Pass teams that have not been to a bowl game in the last 3 years. They are just happy to make it. Pass teams that needed to win their last game just to get to a bowl game for the same reason as above. Memphis is not a play because they needed to win their last game just to get to a bowl game.
There are 2-3 plays coming up in the coming weeks.
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I just found my stat sheet referring to double digit dogs.(I start it at +9 1/2. It was 29 - 13 over the last 10 years. +7 To +9 games are very good also. Two types of teams should be passed though. Pass teams that have not been to a bowl game in the last 3 years. They are just happy to make it. Pass teams that needed to win their last game just to get to a bowl game for the same reason as above. Memphis is not a play because they needed to win their last game just to get to a bowl game.
There are 2-3 plays coming up in the coming weeks.
Oh shit, why did I not read this before getting Navy at 3.5. What a horrible way to lose the bet. Very nice call Professor.
Sorry. There are good plays coming up though. If I do as well as I have in the past you will enjoy the results. The hot- cold play method I posted in the 57% winners post. (it really is 62%) would have found its way to the winners circle in the Col St - Fresno St game. Fresno St had won only 1 spread in the last 10.
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
Oh shit, why did I not read this before getting Navy at 3.5. What a horrible way to lose the bet. Very nice call Professor.
Sorry. There are good plays coming up though. If I do as well as I have in the past you will enjoy the results. The hot- cold play method I posted in the 57% winners post. (it really is 62%) would have found its way to the winners circle in the Col St - Fresno St game. Fresno St had won only 1 spread in the last 10.
The Arizona game tonight vs BYU has the public betting 2 /3 of its money on BYU. Smart money was going on Ariz. They were tonight's play the Sports Service gave out .
There is another game coming up this week that there are 8 streams of smart money going on one side. Public money is going on the other side.
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The Arizona game tonight vs BYU has the public betting 2 /3 of its money on BYU. Smart money was going on Ariz. They were tonight's play the Sports Service gave out .
There is another game coming up this week that there are 8 streams of smart money going on one side. Public money is going on the other side.
If you can figure out where the smart money is going on the bowl game tomorrow you can be with the big boys. There are 8 streams of bets that were made on 1 team. The public is betting the other side.
Here are the stats you need to know about double digit dog plays(+9 1/2 or more )
It hit over 70% i the last 10 years. If you take out teams that have not been to a bowl game in the last 3 years and teams that had to win their last regular season game to qualify for a bowl or at least be on the bubble.
There are 3 games that are double digit dogs. All 3 qualify as plays. Memphis did not because they needed to win to get to a bowl game.
This works for teams at +6 1/2 to 9 also. It hits more than 60%
I hit W. F. at 15 units and Color St at 5 units (hot cold play)
I did not play the other 2 games even so I knew about the smart money move I posted at the start of the game. I also hit Baltimore. That made up for my college basketball" not so hot day ". That happens every once in a while.
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If you can figure out where the smart money is going on the bowl game tomorrow you can be with the big boys. There are 8 streams of bets that were made on 1 team. The public is betting the other side.
Here are the stats you need to know about double digit dog plays(+9 1/2 or more )
It hit over 70% i the last 10 years. If you take out teams that have not been to a bowl game in the last 3 years and teams that had to win their last regular season game to qualify for a bowl or at least be on the bubble.
There are 3 games that are double digit dogs. All 3 qualify as plays. Memphis did not because they needed to win to get to a bowl game.
This works for teams at +6 1/2 to 9 also. It hits more than 60%
I hit W. F. at 15 units and Color St at 5 units (hot cold play)
I did not play the other 2 games even so I knew about the smart money move I posted at the start of the game. I also hit Baltimore. That made up for my college basketball" not so hot day ". That happens every once in a while.
The smart money has gone on S. Miss tonight. There were 8 streams of money going on S Miss. It is more likely that money will go on a dog or -3 favorite or less in bowl games!
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The smart money has gone on S. Miss tonight. There were 8 streams of money going on S Miss. It is more likely that money will go on a dog or -3 favorite or less in bowl games!
Congratulations on the impressive start to the bowl season. Im hoping you will be posting more plays in the future. How do you find out where the sharp money is betting? BOL in the future and keep throwing out winners.
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Professor,
Congratulations on the impressive start to the bowl season. Im hoping you will be posting more plays in the future. How do you find out where the sharp money is betting? BOL in the future and keep throwing out winners.
I have one game this week coming up - Fla Atlantic. This will likely be a high scoring game. Every way I looked at it I did not see a touchdown's difference between the 2 teams. 6 point dogs cover bowl games 60% of the time without knowing a thing. The only thing that bothers me is the high scoring likely to be done in this game. If they score 80 points , the 6 point spread is a smaller % of the whole. I will have all games I like listed . It so happens that this game is getting much smart money on it. It is almost all going to Fla. Atl.
!0 unit play Fla Atl
I am 3-0 on my bowl picks. I released 2 of those but could not do the other. I did put it out right after it started. You could have played the second half and won!!! You could have got it at +2.
I did not play the Ariz game though I got info about all the smart money put on it.
W F 15 units won
Color St 5 units won
S Miss 10 units won
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I have one game this week coming up - Fla Atlantic. This will likely be a high scoring game. Every way I looked at it I did not see a touchdown's difference between the 2 teams. 6 point dogs cover bowl games 60% of the time without knowing a thing. The only thing that bothers me is the high scoring likely to be done in this game. If they score 80 points , the 6 point spread is a smaller % of the whole. I will have all games I like listed . It so happens that this game is getting much smart money on it. It is almost all going to Fla. Atl.
!0 unit play Fla Atl
I am 3-0 on my bowl picks. I released 2 of those but could not do the other. I did put it out right after it started. You could have played the second half and won!!! You could have got it at +2.
I did not play the Ariz game though I got info about all the smart money put on it.
Congratulations on the impressive start to the bowl season. Im hoping you will be posting more plays in the future. How do you find out where the sharp money is betting? BOL in the future and keep throwing out winners.
By far the best place to go is Sports Insights. You can find information there on the 30 books they are in contact with. They have other interesting information also. Some of the service is free at Sports Insights , some you pay for. They will inform you and also give you insight on how to isolate smart money from public money. Concerning the game last night ( S Miss- Troy ) I got the information from them about the 8 streams of smart money being played on S. Miss. I liked S. Miss also, but I did want to post a game they recommended when I was already in contact with them. I do not play other peoples picks. They also liked Ariz. I had no strong opinion on the game so I passed. They won.
Another place you can get good information if you read in between the lines, is Matchbook. You will see a lopsided figure on one side in some games. It might be at -120 or -130 and you can never get a play in at a decent price. I use a 5% off shore when I can not get a play in there. It is amazing how many of those plays hit!! Saturday I liked Wash to beat E. Wash. That play was posted at -128 and it never moved. I used my other place and got -105 for a 1/2 point more. They won easily.
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Quote Originally Posted by kbit:
Professor,
Congratulations on the impressive start to the bowl season. Im hoping you will be posting more plays in the future. How do you find out where the sharp money is betting? BOL in the future and keep throwing out winners.
By far the best place to go is Sports Insights. You can find information there on the 30 books they are in contact with. They have other interesting information also. Some of the service is free at Sports Insights , some you pay for. They will inform you and also give you insight on how to isolate smart money from public money. Concerning the game last night ( S Miss- Troy ) I got the information from them about the 8 streams of smart money being played on S. Miss. I liked S. Miss also, but I did want to post a game they recommended when I was already in contact with them. I do not play other peoples picks. They also liked Ariz. I had no strong opinion on the game so I passed. They won.
Another place you can get good information if you read in between the lines, is Matchbook. You will see a lopsided figure on one side in some games. It might be at -120 or -130 and you can never get a play in at a decent price. I use a 5% off shore when I can not get a play in there. It is amazing how many of those plays hit!! Saturday I liked Wash to beat E. Wash. That play was posted at -128 and it never moved. I used my other place and got -105 for a 1/2 point more. They won easily.
I just noticed another person is giving his bowl picks and claimed to have done quite well last year. I have no doubt that he did and I am not questioning that. Logic is a peculiar and ever ellusive matter. I will give you an example. In college and somtimes on the radio I would hear that the average guy had x( lets call it 8) amount of affairs with women while the average for women had half as many. Question Are men more likely to
1- have gone to bed with more women then women with men
2- It is the same
3 women go to bed with men then men do with women.
Think about that for a minute. I will give you the answer at the bottom. Not one person volunteered the obvious right answer in the class room or on
the call in radio programs I heard.The answer is simple logic.
Getting back to handicapping. To maximize your handicapping potential one must decipher universal principals and then aply them as closely as can be done to today's present game. An example is when a team is seeking revenge from a lose. To find answers to the question posed you should get a big group of games like the one being played. Put some thought into these games and break them up into groups. How do big dogs do,slight dogs, slight favorites and big favorites. Each will respond differently and at different times of the year. You must measure today's spread and determine if its in line with what you perceive to what is likely to happen. There are a few other items you can put to the pencil. You will now find long term patterns. You may find some things work so well they become primary factors rather then secondary factors.In other words they superceed opposite information that has results suggesting the other team will win.
I am not criticizing the person who handicapped the games but on occassions his logic is flawed with what has actually happened in the past in like situations. He liked Navy a lot. Navy is a independent with more games against weaker conferences than better ones. That is a serious indictment against them when the better conference team is focused for the game and "wants ' to be there. Over half of all Wake Forest's interceptions this year happened in the Navy game. They had 6 turnovers and ONLY LOST BY A TOUCHDOWN. Do you think that will happen again. Teams coming off back to back shutouts more times then not give up more points then their average in the next game. We have this documented. Revenge is a big issue when a team played poorly against an opponent they thought they should have beat. Also Wake Forest will adjust more then Navy because Navy had success against Wake Forest and the latter fell short in the first game.You do not adjust much when you are suceeding. There were more reasons why this was a super game to play but that is enoughfor now.
Now for the answer to who has more affairs; men or women. Hey dumb dumb if the average man has 8 affairs with women the average woman has to have exactly the same amount of affairs with men. It is impossible for that number not to be the same! I think one person would have mentioned that , but they did not.
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I just noticed another person is giving his bowl picks and claimed to have done quite well last year. I have no doubt that he did and I am not questioning that. Logic is a peculiar and ever ellusive matter. I will give you an example. In college and somtimes on the radio I would hear that the average guy had x( lets call it 8) amount of affairs with women while the average for women had half as many. Question Are men more likely to
1- have gone to bed with more women then women with men
2- It is the same
3 women go to bed with men then men do with women.
Think about that for a minute. I will give you the answer at the bottom. Not one person volunteered the obvious right answer in the class room or on
the call in radio programs I heard.The answer is simple logic.
Getting back to handicapping. To maximize your handicapping potential one must decipher universal principals and then aply them as closely as can be done to today's present game. An example is when a team is seeking revenge from a lose. To find answers to the question posed you should get a big group of games like the one being played. Put some thought into these games and break them up into groups. How do big dogs do,slight dogs, slight favorites and big favorites. Each will respond differently and at different times of the year. You must measure today's spread and determine if its in line with what you perceive to what is likely to happen. There are a few other items you can put to the pencil. You will now find long term patterns. You may find some things work so well they become primary factors rather then secondary factors.In other words they superceed opposite information that has results suggesting the other team will win.
I am not criticizing the person who handicapped the games but on occassions his logic is flawed with what has actually happened in the past in like situations. He liked Navy a lot. Navy is a independent with more games against weaker conferences than better ones. That is a serious indictment against them when the better conference team is focused for the game and "wants ' to be there. Over half of all Wake Forest's interceptions this year happened in the Navy game. They had 6 turnovers and ONLY LOST BY A TOUCHDOWN. Do you think that will happen again. Teams coming off back to back shutouts more times then not give up more points then their average in the next game. We have this documented. Revenge is a big issue when a team played poorly against an opponent they thought they should have beat. Also Wake Forest will adjust more then Navy because Navy had success against Wake Forest and the latter fell short in the first game.You do not adjust much when you are suceeding. There were more reasons why this was a super game to play but that is enoughfor now.
Now for the answer to who has more affairs; men or women. Hey dumb dumb if the average man has 8 affairs with women the average woman has to have exactly the same amount of affairs with men. It is impossible for that number not to be the same! I think one person would have mentioned that , but they did not.
Prof--perhaps you are referring to my logic with Navy? And with all respect to you, a few points here. Yes I agree with what you're line of thinking is but not completely. First of all, what in the past influenced why I picked Navy...I don't understand that reasoning. I am not a trend-bettor. The fact that Wake is from a stronger (some might argue ACC) conference does not make automatically a stronger team. Even if it does, Bowl games are about more than a stronger conference? How can you explain a Boise beating OKLA in '06, or an ECU beating Boise last year? Nor does revenge make for an automatic winner. Wake.. shaky roady, a shaky favorite. Yes 6 TO's in 1st game, maybe a fluke. But also behind 16-0 when Navy QB went down not to return..and they still held on...and agreed, the TO's made a big difference in the outcome. You can NEVER count out a service Academy team in a bowl...they have too much heart and they never quit. And if you watched the Game the other day, you know darn well Wake's cover was a fluke. Had it not been for some of a 1st year Coach's decisions (pass at end of 1st half) that swung the momentum, Wake's outright win (let alone cover) even appeared unlikely. If you did watch it..convince me otherwise...
Notre Dame is another independent and yes they are not too Bowl savvy, but should they be faded just because they're an ind. with a not-so-good bowl record playind a Conference'd team? And by your logic, AIR FORCE will not cover against a revenging Houston team? Seems you are the one referencing your logic on the past.
Again..it's easy to assess your angle because you cashed. I didn't. But I watched the game and not making any excuses, but Wake's cover was a fluke...anyone that saw the Game knows that. Might not want to admit it, but convince me otherwise...
Again, appreciate your knowledge and Best of Luck...
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Prof--perhaps you are referring to my logic with Navy? And with all respect to you, a few points here. Yes I agree with what you're line of thinking is but not completely. First of all, what in the past influenced why I picked Navy...I don't understand that reasoning. I am not a trend-bettor. The fact that Wake is from a stronger (some might argue ACC) conference does not make automatically a stronger team. Even if it does, Bowl games are about more than a stronger conference? How can you explain a Boise beating OKLA in '06, or an ECU beating Boise last year? Nor does revenge make for an automatic winner. Wake.. shaky roady, a shaky favorite. Yes 6 TO's in 1st game, maybe a fluke. But also behind 16-0 when Navy QB went down not to return..and they still held on...and agreed, the TO's made a big difference in the outcome. You can NEVER count out a service Academy team in a bowl...they have too much heart and they never quit. And if you watched the Game the other day, you know darn well Wake's cover was a fluke. Had it not been for some of a 1st year Coach's decisions (pass at end of 1st half) that swung the momentum, Wake's outright win (let alone cover) even appeared unlikely. If you did watch it..convince me otherwise...
Notre Dame is another independent and yes they are not too Bowl savvy, but should they be faded just because they're an ind. with a not-so-good bowl record playind a Conference'd team? And by your logic, AIR FORCE will not cover against a revenging Houston team? Seems you are the one referencing your logic on the past.
Again..it's easy to assess your angle because you cashed. I didn't. But I watched the game and not making any excuses, but Wake's cover was a fluke...anyone that saw the Game knows that. Might not want to admit it, but convince me otherwise...
Again, appreciate your knowledge and Best of Luck...
I feel you on the Wake Forest/Navy outcome. I was on the Wake side of that game, But in last nights MNF game i was on Carolina. My buddy took the G-men. I told him he was on the wrong side of the game and thought 4 was to many to give the Panthers...and for about 65 mins of game time it was to many points to give them. Anyone who saw that game knows that Carolina had that thing locked down til the very last drive. Sometimes thats how it goes.
I dont think the Professor means to insult you(i would hope he wouldn't do that), try not to take anything personally here. Were all here to have fun and try and make some money. I wish both you, and the Professor, the best of luck this bowl season. Keep throwing out ideas, cause i love hearing different angles and ways of capping games.
Professor please keep giving your insight as to what games you like and why.
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BucBacker,
I feel you on the Wake Forest/Navy outcome. I was on the Wake side of that game, But in last nights MNF game i was on Carolina. My buddy took the G-men. I told him he was on the wrong side of the game and thought 4 was to many to give the Panthers...and for about 65 mins of game time it was to many points to give them. Anyone who saw that game knows that Carolina had that thing locked down til the very last drive. Sometimes thats how it goes.
I dont think the Professor means to insult you(i would hope he wouldn't do that), try not to take anything personally here. Were all here to have fun and try and make some money. I wish both you, and the Professor, the best of luck this bowl season. Keep throwing out ideas, cause i love hearing different angles and ways of capping games.
Professor please keep giving your insight as to what games you like and why.
Hey, in no way did I take that as a direct hit from the Prof. I certainly respect his methods but do not agree with some of his logic, as he obviously does not agree with all of mine. Not saying anything negative and know he wasn't either. To each their own. I've been doing this a long time as I know the Prof has as well. And believe me, I've won and lost a lot of freaky games over the years as I'm sure Prof has.
A game of bounces, a game of inches. No hard feelings and I'm sure none intended. Keep posting Prof, enjoy your views..
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Hey, in no way did I take that as a direct hit from the Prof. I certainly respect his methods but do not agree with some of his logic, as he obviously does not agree with all of mine. Not saying anything negative and know he wasn't either. To each their own. I've been doing this a long time as I know the Prof has as well. And believe me, I've won and lost a lot of freaky games over the years as I'm sure Prof has.
A game of bounces, a game of inches. No hard feelings and I'm sure none intended. Keep posting Prof, enjoy your views..
Prof--congrats on your Wake pick...think you gotta admit luck was on your side to cover! As I say, Good Bets lose everyday and Bad Bets win everyday...esp. in Bowls!! Think this game a case in point. Won't cry, won't make excuses...you had the winner, I didn't...the bounces of the ball...
Congrats and continued luck...
Hold on there. Wake Forest gave up a stupid touchdown in the first half. A real stupid touchdown! The runner not only reversed fields while running deeply backwards (first no no) but keep the ball in his right hand instead of putting it in his left hand (2nd no no) as I tell my players too do in the pee wee league. The ball was striped and instead of W. F. scoring Navy scored on the strip. When I coached I would not allow stupidy. Too many coaches tolerate it and do little to correct it. I was not lucky nor was I unlucky. Both teams did bad things and it evened out.
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Quote Originally Posted by BucBacker:
Prof--congrats on your Wake pick...think you gotta admit luck was on your side to cover! As I say, Good Bets lose everyday and Bad Bets win everyday...esp. in Bowls!! Think this game a case in point. Won't cry, won't make excuses...you had the winner, I didn't...the bounces of the ball...
Congrats and continued luck...
Hold on there. Wake Forest gave up a stupid touchdown in the first half. A real stupid touchdown! The runner not only reversed fields while running deeply backwards (first no no) but keep the ball in his right hand instead of putting it in his left hand (2nd no no) as I tell my players too do in the pee wee league. The ball was striped and instead of W. F. scoring Navy scored on the strip. When I coached I would not allow stupidy. Too many coaches tolerate it and do little to correct it. I was not lucky nor was I unlucky. Both teams did bad things and it evened out.
Prof--perhaps you are referring to my logic with Navy? And with all respect to you, a few points here. Yes I agree with what you're line of thinking is but not completely. First of all, what in the past influenced why I picked Navy...I don't understand that reasoning. I am not a trend-bettor. The fact that Wake is from a stronger (some might argue ACC) conference does not make automatically a stronger team. Even if it does, Bowl games are about more than a stronger conference? How can you explain a Boise beating OKLA in '06, or an ECU beating Boise last year? Nor does revenge make for an automatic winner. Wake.. shaky roady, a shaky favorite. Yes 6 TO's in 1st game, maybe a fluke. But also behind 16-0 when Navy QB went down not to return..and they still held on...and agreed, the TO's made a big difference in the outcome. You can NEVER count out a service Academy team in a bowl...they have too much heart and they never quit. And if you watched the Game the other day, you know darn well Wake's cover was a fluke. Had it not been for some of a 1st year Coach's decisions (pass at end of 1st half) that swung the momentum, Wake's outright win (let alone cover) even appeared unlikely. If you did watch it..convince me otherwise...
Notre Dame is another independent and yes they are not too Bowl savvy, but should they be faded just because they're an ind. with a not-so-good bowl record playind a Conference'd team? And by your logic, AIR FORCE will not cover against a revenging Houston team? Seems you are the one referencing your logic on the past.
Again..it's easy to assess your angle because you cashed. I didn't. But I watched the game and not making any excuses, but Wake's cover was a fluke...anyone that saw the Game knows that. Might not want to admit it, but convince me otherwise...
Again, appreciate your knowledge and Best of Luck...
I think you are an excellent handicapper .Your logic is on the right side of good and you do a good job of writing. Here is where I think you need to extend your excellent thinking processes. Before coming to that point you are assuming some things from me that I did not say. I break down data to a microcosm as much as i can that makes sense and is practical. Here are some examples of what you said that seemed logical but the data said otherwise. I am not saying that harshly or in a superior way. I say it because I researched it and have a huge data base of results. You assumd a team that just shut out 2 teams in a row is going to continue to play solid defense.The truth is that most teams actually allow more points than they average when allowing 10 or less points in 2 straight games. I have the data about teams that give uo 10 points or less over 2 games (I do not count the sisters of the poor teams). They lose spreads like crazy in either their next game or game after that.(there is an exception even to that) Here are 2 bowl examples. Tenn 2002 and 2003. They had a double shut out before the 2002 bowl game. They lost 30-3. In 2003 it was a shutout then a 7 points. As a 5 point favorite they got blown out in the bowl game. The truth of the matter it takes alot out of a team when they are playing on such a high plane. My point on this one particuliar item is that the seemingly good logic you incorporate is counter to the reality. It is important to research information like this. When I first started doing that I was shocked at some results including this one. Here is another example. You talked about teams that are going to a bowl after not having played a bowl game in a while. You stated they will be up for the game. Teams like this have probably accomplished their true inner goal of " just getting to a bowl game.' They are ok plays under the following. They are a 13 point dog. They are playing a team on a bad point spread skid,such as Fresno State. They are playing a team that does not want to be at this bowl game and had higher expectations and are a touchdown dog or more. They are playing another inexperienced bowl team. It is wonderful that you are adding to what you are doing. It is important though to have long term data to support that. I am happy you are not a trend bettor. They are losers in the long run. I could create impressive trend results on almost any game and team that makes each team a near lock if you beleived the garbage I said . Also itis important to know Dr Doom sometimes is standing at the door and for some reason the past does not predict the future, at least in the short term. I just had a 15 game winning streak. It was followed by a 8-11 losing streak. Both are counterfit to my norm. When adding them up it is close to where I should be. Keep up the good work , you have what it takes. You write better then me ( Not my strong point) If you ever want to contact me I am open to that. I am fun to talk with.
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Quote Originally Posted by BucBacker:
Prof--perhaps you are referring to my logic with Navy? And with all respect to you, a few points here. Yes I agree with what you're line of thinking is but not completely. First of all, what in the past influenced why I picked Navy...I don't understand that reasoning. I am not a trend-bettor. The fact that Wake is from a stronger (some might argue ACC) conference does not make automatically a stronger team. Even if it does, Bowl games are about more than a stronger conference? How can you explain a Boise beating OKLA in '06, or an ECU beating Boise last year? Nor does revenge make for an automatic winner. Wake.. shaky roady, a shaky favorite. Yes 6 TO's in 1st game, maybe a fluke. But also behind 16-0 when Navy QB went down not to return..and they still held on...and agreed, the TO's made a big difference in the outcome. You can NEVER count out a service Academy team in a bowl...they have too much heart and they never quit. And if you watched the Game the other day, you know darn well Wake's cover was a fluke. Had it not been for some of a 1st year Coach's decisions (pass at end of 1st half) that swung the momentum, Wake's outright win (let alone cover) even appeared unlikely. If you did watch it..convince me otherwise...
Notre Dame is another independent and yes they are not too Bowl savvy, but should they be faded just because they're an ind. with a not-so-good bowl record playind a Conference'd team? And by your logic, AIR FORCE will not cover against a revenging Houston team? Seems you are the one referencing your logic on the past.
Again..it's easy to assess your angle because you cashed. I didn't. But I watched the game and not making any excuses, but Wake's cover was a fluke...anyone that saw the Game knows that. Might not want to admit it, but convince me otherwise...
Again, appreciate your knowledge and Best of Luck...
I think you are an excellent handicapper .Your logic is on the right side of good and you do a good job of writing. Here is where I think you need to extend your excellent thinking processes. Before coming to that point you are assuming some things from me that I did not say. I break down data to a microcosm as much as i can that makes sense and is practical. Here are some examples of what you said that seemed logical but the data said otherwise. I am not saying that harshly or in a superior way. I say it because I researched it and have a huge data base of results. You assumd a team that just shut out 2 teams in a row is going to continue to play solid defense.The truth is that most teams actually allow more points than they average when allowing 10 or less points in 2 straight games. I have the data about teams that give uo 10 points or less over 2 games (I do not count the sisters of the poor teams). They lose spreads like crazy in either their next game or game after that.(there is an exception even to that) Here are 2 bowl examples. Tenn 2002 and 2003. They had a double shut out before the 2002 bowl game. They lost 30-3. In 2003 it was a shutout then a 7 points. As a 5 point favorite they got blown out in the bowl game. The truth of the matter it takes alot out of a team when they are playing on such a high plane. My point on this one particuliar item is that the seemingly good logic you incorporate is counter to the reality. It is important to research information like this. When I first started doing that I was shocked at some results including this one. Here is another example. You talked about teams that are going to a bowl after not having played a bowl game in a while. You stated they will be up for the game. Teams like this have probably accomplished their true inner goal of " just getting to a bowl game.' They are ok plays under the following. They are a 13 point dog. They are playing a team on a bad point spread skid,such as Fresno State. They are playing a team that does not want to be at this bowl game and had higher expectations and are a touchdown dog or more. They are playing another inexperienced bowl team. It is wonderful that you are adding to what you are doing. It is important though to have long term data to support that. I am happy you are not a trend bettor. They are losers in the long run. I could create impressive trend results on almost any game and team that makes each team a near lock if you beleived the garbage I said . Also itis important to know Dr Doom sometimes is standing at the door and for some reason the past does not predict the future, at least in the short term. I just had a 15 game winning streak. It was followed by a 8-11 losing streak. Both are counterfit to my norm. When adding them up it is close to where I should be. Keep up the good work , you have what it takes. You write better then me ( Not my strong point) If you ever want to contact me I am open to that. I am fun to talk with.
Prof--I would like to think I research my stuff pretty thoroughly and like you, have a good bit of data I check. But I will admit I don't even know what a "microcosm" is. To date we've had 3 bowlers that sat home last year (Colo St cover, AZ cover, Troy loss); in those games I capped Colo St (W), BYU (L), and SoMiss (W)...so I am not just inadvertently playing on-or-against these teams because they'll be "up" or I'd have backed AZ and Troy instead of actually going against them. As I stated somewhere earlier, I really think Bowls have to be handicapped entirely different from regular season due to the emotional and intangible factors of how a bunch of KIDS are gonna handle them. Not easy to do but that is one of the things to many guys don't consider. I think you and I have been doing this long enough to agree that come Bowl time, the recently completed regular season has become "past history" and alot of the stats most handicappers rely on become irrelevant. The key is finding which side of which team is gonna show-up. As for the back-to-back shutouts you mention, maybe I'm wrong as you say your data suggests, but will usually back a team playing good "D" against a similar opponent assuming they match-up favorably in RUSHING stats.
But I do wholehearted agree like the games themselves, handicapping is about momentum swings and streaks. Hot streaks and cold streaks. Let's just hope we both have more of the hot ones...and keep Dr Doom on someone else's doorsteps!
Continued luck and success with your picks!!
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Prof--I would like to think I research my stuff pretty thoroughly and like you, have a good bit of data I check. But I will admit I don't even know what a "microcosm" is. To date we've had 3 bowlers that sat home last year (Colo St cover, AZ cover, Troy loss); in those games I capped Colo St (W), BYU (L), and SoMiss (W)...so I am not just inadvertently playing on-or-against these teams because they'll be "up" or I'd have backed AZ and Troy instead of actually going against them. As I stated somewhere earlier, I really think Bowls have to be handicapped entirely different from regular season due to the emotional and intangible factors of how a bunch of KIDS are gonna handle them. Not easy to do but that is one of the things to many guys don't consider. I think you and I have been doing this long enough to agree that come Bowl time, the recently completed regular season has become "past history" and alot of the stats most handicappers rely on become irrelevant. The key is finding which side of which team is gonna show-up. As for the back-to-back shutouts you mention, maybe I'm wrong as you say your data suggests, but will usually back a team playing good "D" against a similar opponent assuming they match-up favorably in RUSHING stats.
But I do wholehearted agree like the games themselves, handicapping is about momentum swings and streaks. Hot streaks and cold streaks. Let's just hope we both have more of the hot ones...and keep Dr Doom on someone else's doorsteps!
Im curious to hear your thoughts on any upcoming bowl games you might be capping. You dont have to give your pick,(i dont tail people anyway) but im always interested in hearing new/different ways of looking at games.
Thank You
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BucBacker,
Im curious to hear your thoughts on any upcoming bowl games you might be capping. You dont have to give your pick,(i dont tail people anyway) but im always interested in hearing new/different ways of looking at games.
I have not read any comments today so if you want a response it will have to wait. If somebody made me play the game it would be TCU. They have a great defense. Only allowing Texas to score 35 during the big run Texas had is really good. Texas averaged a whooping 62 points a game in the last half of the season . TCU gave up 27 less then that . Also TCU held every other team to 2 tds or less. That is impressive! TCU has lost 2 close games and that will motivate them .They will be in a hunting mold , while Boise State will be in the hunted mold. They will be trying to hold on to their perfect season. TCU has a better defense and defense wins bowl and playoff games. TCU likes to run Boise State probably has not faced as good of a running game as TCU. That is a small edge. The spread could be better but still in all I think TCU wins tonight , but by how many?
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I have not read any comments today so if you want a response it will have to wait. If somebody made me play the game it would be TCU. They have a great defense. Only allowing Texas to score 35 during the big run Texas had is really good. Texas averaged a whooping 62 points a game in the last half of the season . TCU gave up 27 less then that . Also TCU held every other team to 2 tds or less. That is impressive! TCU has lost 2 close games and that will motivate them .They will be in a hunting mold , while Boise State will be in the hunted mold. They will be trying to hold on to their perfect season. TCU has a better defense and defense wins bowl and playoff games. TCU likes to run Boise State probably has not faced as good of a running game as TCU. That is a small edge. The spread could be better but still in all I think TCU wins tonight , but by how many?
If TCU wins tonight I hope they dedicate the game to the great Sammy Baugh the last living football legend from the 30's who passed away at 94. I once upon a time sponsored shows with sports celebrities. I did one with Sammy and he was a class act as every player was from that era. Amazingly he still holds Washington's career touchdown record. Certainly he is TCU'S favorite son.
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If TCU wins tonight I hope they dedicate the game to the great Sammy Baugh the last living football legend from the 30's who passed away at 94. I once upon a time sponsored shows with sports celebrities. I did one with Sammy and he was a class act as every player was from that era. Amazingly he still holds Washington's career touchdown record. Certainly he is TCU'S favorite son.
This is a classic example why I passed the game. I thought it would be close and I thought TCU had the edge in motivation and would win. However; the spread was bad. If you got the game in when it opened at pick em ( I did not) you would have won if you had TCU. Had that spread stayed there I would have called this a 5 unit play. TCU has controlled the tempo of all games this year with defense. They either allowed 7 or less points in every game or held the opponent to the worse they have scored in any game for the season. That is amazing. I considered the under but seldom play totals. I will be passing the Hawaii -Notre Dame game . Notre Dame has lost 9 straight bowl games . The problem is that this is their weakest opponent ever but it will be played on Hawaii's home turf ,which is as difficult to win at during regular season play as there is in college. It is important to be investment minded rather then "action minded". For the record about 90 different colleges have won a playoff or bowl game since N D has! ( and they are favorite?)
Happy Holidays to all . Santa loves you even if he leaves coal in your stocking or stuffs it with his losing tickets.
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This is a classic example why I passed the game. I thought it would be close and I thought TCU had the edge in motivation and would win. However; the spread was bad. If you got the game in when it opened at pick em ( I did not) you would have won if you had TCU. Had that spread stayed there I would have called this a 5 unit play. TCU has controlled the tempo of all games this year with defense. They either allowed 7 or less points in every game or held the opponent to the worse they have scored in any game for the season. That is amazing. I considered the under but seldom play totals. I will be passing the Hawaii -Notre Dame game . Notre Dame has lost 9 straight bowl games . The problem is that this is their weakest opponent ever but it will be played on Hawaii's home turf ,which is as difficult to win at during regular season play as there is in college. It is important to be investment minded rather then "action minded". For the record about 90 different colleges have won a playoff or bowl game since N D has! ( and they are favorite?)
Happy Holidays to all . Santa loves you even if he leaves coal in your stocking or stuffs it with his losing tickets.
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