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Posts: 895

Lank66

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 142

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 11:49 AM ET #276

Just heard from Jeff. He isn't going tout

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JEFFTHEHAT

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3843

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 12:29 PM ET #277

Today's plays are:

MIL (A)

OAK (A)

Let's all win

The Hat

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BIGfnPOO

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2006

Posts: 18880

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 12:35 PM ET #278

gd lk

bigFnPOO

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Akhmim

Prospect

Joined: May, 2014

Posts: 1

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 3:59 PM ET #279

So why not DET over HOU... It should be a clear win... im new to this system but some of the picks i dont get sometimes... im doing pretty good on my own im at 58% on a sample on 100 picks so far this season... Im trying to figure out how you make these picks...

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BIGfnPOO

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2006

Posts: 18880

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 4:22 PM ET #280

if he tells u how he piks em then he gotta kil u...im not crazy about a 2-1 lay on a 6 gm chase but hey u tail or u dont...u can pik and choose.. 2-1 on A wait for the c,d chase as columbo suggests...take mil only at -140 just gambollll baybayyyyy

bigFnPOO

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Bart_

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 3549

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 5:12 PM ET #281

Quote Originally Posted by Columboknows:

The last 5 years:

Straight betting bets "c" and "d" only, have produced 114.5 units. 22.9 units a year. You could bet to win 8% of total bank per game.

2 game chase bets "c" and "d" only, have produced 211.25 units. 42.25 units a year. Your unit size here could be %5 of total bank

Take it one step further and play E & F as a 2 game chase and you got yourself another 12 units per year.

I may like this better then my original 4+2 game theory.

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Bart_

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 3549

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 5:16 PM ET #282

The only bad thing about splitting up games like this is that the system was designed as a 6 game chase, so some years, you may find lots of game A winners, another year it may be game C winners.

In the end, the system will win, but the money management style impact winners.

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nfl_brosuf

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 9485

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 5:46 PM ET #283

I'm already on mil and oak but I took a little hit on the value with buying mil super early. Got her at -166

regardless, no matter the value, it is better than taking a loss.

We got this boss. Game starts in a few hours.

X_____________________________

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BarstoolProphet

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 848

Posted: May. 5, 2014 - 6:14 PM ET #284

Bart, completely agree that the system was setup as a 6 game chase. The only thing Columbo was bringing up was trying to get the best for your dollar. Which he did a very good job explaining.

Here are the problems that I foresee in chasing a 6 game chase with no information in regards on what to expect. First is the fact, which everyone needs to except, the amount needed to sustain a full 6 game chase at -150 app. odds. In addition to win 1 unit. Personally when I run these type of chase systems, I tend to only try to win on the first game and all subsequent plays are only to recoup losses. ie. B would only be to win my A loss and nothing more, etc. This helps in keeping the overall chase figure down.

Anyway once one realizes that you need apprx. 24.355 units or lets just say 25 units. That is $25,000 for a $100 player. To sustain a full 6 game chase.

Now HAT has done great job back testing this and provided us with the results. But one thing which is crucial is at what time was the most chases open and not closed out. I am just going out on a limb here given the amount of chases given over the course of one season, which I believe is 4.5 months. April is a sit out. And I would hope that Sept 15th or so would be a cutoff so that you can complete a 6 game chase if needed.

Now if one would assume here, that it is possible to have 4 or more chases open at any given time. Of which, you should be prepared to have 25 units ready for each chase. I sincerely hope someone is not banking on the high win percentage to close out chases early. A Peter pays Paul type thing.

That being said, You would need at least a 100 unit bankroll or more to make this happen. Personally I would double that for security. That would mean that no one, that includes everyone following this system, of which so far seems sound and profitable,should be wagering more than 1% to be safe .5% of their bankroll as an unit size.

IE the guy that loss 3k I think on just the first 2 games. That tells me that he was wagering $1500 on each game. His bankroll needed to be at a minimum $150,000. Now I do not think that it was. Or he clearly did not know how this works and was prepared for the long haul.

What he was banking on, was Jeff's success that he has had with other systems and their respective win percentages on just the first game.

Now Columbo brings up a great concept for those not prepared or have such a large bankroll. For those that do not have a 100-200 unit bankroll, you need to look back at what he is presenting. Because it is by far the best ROI one can have with the least amount of risk, although the risk actually is the same on all levels , its the reduced stress of being on 4 chase that are 4 or 5 games in.

The point that he has made is that , now the minimum bankroll size can be increased to 5% or more. and still be safe.

Sure +450 units looks great and impressive vs. +90 units. But when you look at their respective unit size they are exactly the same. (1% vs. 5%) unit size. The major difference is the amount at risk and the total of chases at at given time are.

But then again there are those action junkies out there, that have to be on a game and can not wait for the perfect setup to present itself. I have systems that will go an entire month and not have a play, but when it does come around, it hits.

Just my 4 cents,, I tend to ramble a bit, so everyone got twice the juice today. Good Luck Jeffro.