Your Perception VS The Book's Deception.........by Rickster2312 & P.B. Nation....

Quote Originally Posted by pulledclear:

Rickster In all seriousness I have given you a hard time and I apologize. I have an idea and I want your opinion. Im going to create a website that promotes the open exchange of information and saturate it with advertising intended to lure the simpleminded and lazy by preying on their weaknesses! I dont think anyone has come with this! what do you think?

this clown wants my opinion but yet bashes me in what I do, you have no credability here at covers and are a total fucking loser...................................post a play, offer something informative, or back to your little kids room and jack off to your little school boy pictures of girls..........it's obivious your a fuckling punk kid..............have a nice day kid.........of all the pictures on the net and you come up with some weak ass picture of some stupid bitch thaty you you could only wish about............... go start your loser web site which is only a dream for you.........your a do nothing basher punk ............... 

thanx for the look in dalegend.................... 

165.........thanx for the look in...............

32counter..........thanx...........

222 bad.........let dude go, he means nothing and is harmless, maybe I can get a good movie review in the future................I actually expected a lot more of his kind in here.......sure it will come soon enough............

have put down a lot notes for the next chapter as this one should draw some opinions......... Line Reading 101 where do you even start................. will start in the am when I'm fresh...........

Chapter 5

                                  Line Reading 101

What is a line?  A line is the tool used by the book to generate sales on a event by making it look attractive so bettors will buy.  The line is all about perception that has been perpetrated on bettors forever by the book on how they want you to percieve things.  A car salesman will sell you a great looking car that runs like shit and have no shame in it.  He will prey on your perception that looking good is better than running good and gladly take your money with a smile as will the book.  Lines are made to influence what I call patterned behavior betting.  The odds maker knows what side you will be on most of the time, they know what you like, how you like it, when you like it, and when you don't like it.  Sad but true.  So if the oddsmaker knows everthing about you he can make lines to make money by using your perception of events with his deception in lines.  The line is not about which team is good or bad but to generate sales,  I can stress this enough.  The line is set that if you do win you get a percentage for your win because of this thing called the vigorish. By that I mean after dodging the win by the money line or spread which was hard enough now I have to pay a commision also.  Did you ever stop and really think about that?   Getting 90%, 75%, 50%, 35% of your money back on a win is what the book wants when it does have to pay............more in a bit.........................

Chapter 5 Continued:

What goes into making a line in and how it's going to beat you.  Stats that are never ending from a super computer that you and I have never even thought about,  Tendency's including bettors, players, coach's, officals. family and anything thought of, Probability with odds, Perception's, Real Time Info and Injury, Human Nature,  Ground Forces at events,  War room meetings with many differant handicapppers with varing opinions, and the ability to move and adjust the line just for starters.  They are the pros hired by the casino to take your money.  It is the line makers job to make the casino money.  The lines are well thought out and made way in advance.  Did you know that this years football season's lines are pretty much all made and have been for a while.  The line maker has to be ahead of you because they have the most at risk.  Not only does the line have to beat you on the actual game, the book also has to take into consideration how to beat you on the teaser, runline, half time,  buying the hook, future, parlay, round robin's, system,  middler's, and scalper bets.  This is what I mean buy the book having the most risk booking all the action and making the lines and rules we have to play by.  So the question begs do they make a line to bring in 50/50 action or one sided action and which side should we be on when reading a line?........back in a bit....................

running to the book for a small action play and be back to write more on this chapter as I have a lot more thoughts................

 Royal/Astro      OVER.............will post the number when I get back dunno if it's 8.5 or 9..........both pitchers are terrible day pitchers and am hoping at least one or both gets shalacked........

As always best of  to all.................

 I got over   8.5   -110............

Chapter 5 Continued:

This just my own personal opinion about what action the line is intented to bring in.  I can believe that on any given card that some games bring 50/50 action because that's all they warrant.  I also believe the book is looking for one sided action on games they know pretty much what the outcome will be in advance.  Ever wonder why so many games land so near to the number.  These guys are good.  Why would the book only want 10% of the handle when they can have a lot more of the handle or all the handle.  Why do sports directors throw lockers and chairs in the back room which I have personally witnessed on a loss.  Why do casino owners and casino managers ask the sport director who do we need tonight in a nervous tone which I have witnessed.  Would all this be going on if there was no risk and exposure going to the supposed 50/50 action?  Do you really think a haltime line is intented for 50/50 action when the line has to be made, put out, generate sales all in a matter of 15 minutes?  Knowing all the bettors think they have a edge with what they saw in the first half.  These lines have to look good and attractive one way given the short time frame to make sales also being aware of middle possibilities, bettors getting off of a bet, and all the action going on in comparision to the original line of the game.  The book wants all the money if they can get is my belief.  I also have personally witnessed one sided action in many forms through out the years and not to believe the book needs one side or the other in 50/50 action.  Line movement, standing by the window and listening to the bettors repeat the same betting number time after time, standing in line and watching bettors make the same bet, standing at the craps table and listening to the world all talk about one side, the unsoliciated tout, these are just afew instances I have seen with my own eyes and years.  I usually want to be on the side the book needs when I bet although this guarantees nothing............back in a bit with more........

Quote Originally Posted by pulledclear:

 "A SUPER COMPUTER"  Is that the Technical term?

They make money through the Theory of Large Numbers and about a 6% hold. It represents a very small percentage of Nevada gaming revenue.

Overall, Nevada’s legal sports wagering represents less than 1 percent of all sports betting nationwide. In 2010, $2.76 billion was legally wagered in Nevada’s sports books;it is l estimated that ILLEGAL wagers are as much as $380 billion annually. 

HMMMMM!

so I guess all the illegal money bet will have no lines or the bookies don't want to beat the shit out of you.............really...........some google stats from a gamming article or from Nevada Gaming Control Board public numbers..............something everybody already knows...........think for yourself if that's possible......I used to believe what the casino told us for years.......now I believe nothing the casino tells me as my own eyes and ears have seen other...........offer us some advice on line reading and how to beat the casino..........What is the key to line reading if your such a genuis????.............will wait for your answer before I write my answer as I do have a answer to this question...........

Truck...................thanx for the look in........appreciate the support.......  I had you wrong dude thought you were a SJP lover but I see you where not...........I dunno the brunt of the whole story but I guess she/he fucked you also somehow..........I apoligize...........

How ya doin rick?