Not going to repeat everything for my plays. If you are looking for more info you can read my thread from yesterday here: https://www.covers.com/forum/wnba-213/040622-103645726/1
I'll start with what seems to me the most obvious play even if it will be the second game to tip off today. Fever have dropped two straight since the big win in Knox's first game. Those two losses occurred in as many nights and it is my feeling that fatigue played a large role. Dream lead the season series 2-0 and won the last matchup by 22 but the first by just 6. Nalyssa Smith did not play in the second game. Fever at full strength today with 3 nights rest. Dream also healthy but just one night of rest and even if they fell short, coming back from that 20 point deficit must have been draining. With all these non-Howard rookies producing for the Fever, I buy in to the idea that a win against the no.1 pick is important to them. What better way to get the nasty taste of losing to the Liberty by dd out of your mouth?
I do wish Howard was coming off a better game. As it stands, she is coming off her second worst effort of the season. The 24th was her worst when she went scoreless against Washington. The Dream lost that game 50-70. The team responded with a 28 point victory over PHX in their next game but a few things to note: 1. PHX was HURTING in this game 2. Howard's personal response was a 12/2/6 effort on 50% shooting in 25 minutes. 3. The Dream were up 12 after the 1st and 27 at the half. This was more of a team bounce back than it was specific to Howard. Could this happen again? Sure. It has happened before. Game 2 of this season series, ATL had a 10 point lead after 1 and 15 point lead at the half. In fact, ATL won every quarter of this game on the road. That shit is rare. Anyway, it's always a gamble.
For those just looking to pick up a nice dog on the ml, I think this is the way to go. I wrote a bit yesterday about how Atlanta's style of play lends itself to blowouts, one way or the other. I'd be surprised to see the Fever cover and not win but I have my own personal rules for wagering and I am sticking to them.
IND Fever +6.5 @ ATL Dream (-110) 4U
IND Fever ML @ ATL Dream (+220) 1U
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
14-14 +12.15U
Not going to repeat everything for my plays. If you are looking for more info you can read my thread from yesterday here: https://www.covers.com/forum/wnba-213/040622-103645726/1
I'll start with what seems to me the most obvious play even if it will be the second game to tip off today. Fever have dropped two straight since the big win in Knox's first game. Those two losses occurred in as many nights and it is my feeling that fatigue played a large role. Dream lead the season series 2-0 and won the last matchup by 22 but the first by just 6. Nalyssa Smith did not play in the second game. Fever at full strength today with 3 nights rest. Dream also healthy but just one night of rest and even if they fell short, coming back from that 20 point deficit must have been draining. With all these non-Howard rookies producing for the Fever, I buy in to the idea that a win against the no.1 pick is important to them. What better way to get the nasty taste of losing to the Liberty by dd out of your mouth?
I do wish Howard was coming off a better game. As it stands, she is coming off her second worst effort of the season. The 24th was her worst when she went scoreless against Washington. The Dream lost that game 50-70. The team responded with a 28 point victory over PHX in their next game but a few things to note: 1. PHX was HURTING in this game 2. Howard's personal response was a 12/2/6 effort on 50% shooting in 25 minutes. 3. The Dream were up 12 after the 1st and 27 at the half. This was more of a team bounce back than it was specific to Howard. Could this happen again? Sure. It has happened before. Game 2 of this season series, ATL had a 10 point lead after 1 and 15 point lead at the half. In fact, ATL won every quarter of this game on the road. That shit is rare. Anyway, it's always a gamble.
For those just looking to pick up a nice dog on the ml, I think this is the way to go. I wrote a bit yesterday about how Atlanta's style of play lends itself to blowouts, one way or the other. I'd be surprised to see the Fever cover and not win but I have my own personal rules for wagering and I am sticking to them.
The hope was to first find some clarity for the first game by taking a second and writing up the second game first. Don't worry, I hated writing that sentence as much as you hated reading it, but it does make sense. Did it work? We should know in a few hours.
I did say this could be a "wait and see" game for me, but I think instead it is going to be a small play. If it sounds like I am eager for some action, that's because I am. That's not the only reason for this play though. Liberty have won 2 straight and now look for revenge against this Lynx team that beat them by 6 on May 24th. Lynx have lost two straight by a total of 10 points since that win over NY. The Liberty have played twice as many games in that time. 3 nights rest for the Lynx vs. 1 for the Liberty. As much as I do like the revenge angle, not all revenge is equal. Liberty just beat Washington. They likely look at the 6 point loss IN Minnesota combined with their recent play and see a rematch in their own house as a great opportunity to continue this winning streak. It's a nice story for New York but I'm not convinced it'll go their way today and perhaps equally relevant is that I don't want it to
Even though I know this is going to bring on some criticism, I'll explain. One way that I sometimes analyze games and spots is by assuming a victory for one side and exploring the implications of that for upcoming games and then doing the same by assuming a victory for the other side and comparing them. I did this a bit when I took the Sun to beat the Aces, predicting how it would impact their next game @ PHX. So what's the situation here? Liberty next 3 games including today are: vsLynx, vsLynx, @Fever. I am looking all the way to this Fever game in which I know that I would like to back the Fever for revenge and to win the season series. Game 1 was a 6 pt OT win for IND, Game 2 was a 13 pt win for NY a couple days ago. I will feel better about backing the Fever in that game if the Liberty is coming off a win. Considering the Lynx position in the standings right now (dead last), they simply cannot afford to lose both of these games. It would "work better for me" if they won today and lost in the next game to set up for Liberty @ Fever and I lean that way anyway so it's worth a unit to me.
Minnesota needs a get right game. They should not take this team lightly given how close they played recently and I am sure they are aware of the Liberty's recent wins. Perhaps most importantly, Minnesota knows for a fact that they can beat this team. I expect them to do it in the paint. Despite losing, Waashington had 40 of their 70 points in the paint last game. When these team's last met, points in the paint were 24-38 in favour of the Lynx. Obviously the Liberty have been playing better of late, but how much better? This team averages almost 18 turnovers per game (worst in the league) and has cut that to just 12 in each of the last two games. This team is shooting just over 39% from the field on the season. In their win against Indiana they shot 45% but that came all the way down to 36% in their win against Washington. Mystics 5/21 from 3 and 9/14 from the line is what lost them the game. Apologies to NY but I think this upset had a lot more to do with Washington checking out than it did New York's performance. A more desperate and focused team would not have lost that game and I think that's what we have with the Lynx today. New York could win this game with great shooting but I am betting they don't.
Long walk to a short drink of water.
MIN Lynx +3 @ NY Liberty (-110) 1U
... Early start road dogs FTW (I hope)
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The hope was to first find some clarity for the first game by taking a second and writing up the second game first. Don't worry, I hated writing that sentence as much as you hated reading it, but it does make sense. Did it work? We should know in a few hours.
I did say this could be a "wait and see" game for me, but I think instead it is going to be a small play. If it sounds like I am eager for some action, that's because I am. That's not the only reason for this play though. Liberty have won 2 straight and now look for revenge against this Lynx team that beat them by 6 on May 24th. Lynx have lost two straight by a total of 10 points since that win over NY. The Liberty have played twice as many games in that time. 3 nights rest for the Lynx vs. 1 for the Liberty. As much as I do like the revenge angle, not all revenge is equal. Liberty just beat Washington. They likely look at the 6 point loss IN Minnesota combined with their recent play and see a rematch in their own house as a great opportunity to continue this winning streak. It's a nice story for New York but I'm not convinced it'll go their way today and perhaps equally relevant is that I don't want it to
Even though I know this is going to bring on some criticism, I'll explain. One way that I sometimes analyze games and spots is by assuming a victory for one side and exploring the implications of that for upcoming games and then doing the same by assuming a victory for the other side and comparing them. I did this a bit when I took the Sun to beat the Aces, predicting how it would impact their next game @ PHX. So what's the situation here? Liberty next 3 games including today are: vsLynx, vsLynx, @Fever. I am looking all the way to this Fever game in which I know that I would like to back the Fever for revenge and to win the season series. Game 1 was a 6 pt OT win for IND, Game 2 was a 13 pt win for NY a couple days ago. I will feel better about backing the Fever in that game if the Liberty is coming off a win. Considering the Lynx position in the standings right now (dead last), they simply cannot afford to lose both of these games. It would "work better for me" if they won today and lost in the next game to set up for Liberty @ Fever and I lean that way anyway so it's worth a unit to me.
Minnesota needs a get right game. They should not take this team lightly given how close they played recently and I am sure they are aware of the Liberty's recent wins. Perhaps most importantly, Minnesota knows for a fact that they can beat this team. I expect them to do it in the paint. Despite losing, Waashington had 40 of their 70 points in the paint last game. When these team's last met, points in the paint were 24-38 in favour of the Lynx. Obviously the Liberty have been playing better of late, but how much better? This team averages almost 18 turnovers per game (worst in the league) and has cut that to just 12 in each of the last two games. This team is shooting just over 39% from the field on the season. In their win against Indiana they shot 45% but that came all the way down to 36% in their win against Washington. Mystics 5/21 from 3 and 9/14 from the line is what lost them the game. Apologies to NY but I think this upset had a lot more to do with Washington checking out than it did New York's performance. A more desperate and focused team would not have lost that game and I think that's what we have with the Lynx today. New York could win this game with great shooting but I am betting they don't.
Both teams are leaving points on the table at the line(6/10, 5/9). First possession of the game for the Liberty saw Ionescu doubled and turn the ball over. Turnovers are actually 6-4 in favour of the Liberty but those 6 turnovers have resulted in 0 points compared to 4 for Minnesota. The real difference has been in rebounding and with Dolson in foul trouble, it’s difficult to see New York addressing this issue in the 2h. Rebounds: 21-15, O-rebs: 5-2, points in the paint 20-22, second chance points: 9-2. New York’s ability to get inside so far is keeping them in the game but 28 of their 37 points have come from two players (Ionescu and Howard).
Strong start and finish to both quarters for the Lynx
oh ya, and Powers is on fire
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MIN@NY halftime thoughts
Both teams are leaving points on the table at the line(6/10, 5/9). First possession of the game for the Liberty saw Ionescu doubled and turn the ball over. Turnovers are actually 6-4 in favour of the Liberty but those 6 turnovers have resulted in 0 points compared to 4 for Minnesota. The real difference has been in rebounding and with Dolson in foul trouble, it’s difficult to see New York addressing this issue in the 2h. Rebounds: 21-15, O-rebs: 5-2, points in the paint 20-22, second chance points: 9-2. New York’s ability to get inside so far is keeping them in the game but 28 of their 37 points have come from two players (Ionescu and Howard).
Strong start and finish to both quarters for the Lynx
Fever look dead. Their energy and shot selection has been terrible all game. The got plenty of stops in the first half but were not running as expected.
LA Sparks @ PHX Mercury +1.5 (-110) 3U
LA Sparks @ PHX Mercury OVER 171.5 (-110) 1U
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15-14 +13.15U
Fever look dead. Their energy and shot selection has been terrible all game. The got plenty of stops in the first half but were not running as expected.
What a ridiculous game. Indiana played like trash and we were still a Mitchell 3 at the end away from the cover. 14/23 at the line. Make me sick. Atlanta tried its best to give the game away. Will try to have a clear head for the next one but probably just need to leave that alone.
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15-16 +7.75U
What a ridiculous game. Indiana played like trash and we were still a Mitchell 3 at the end away from the cover. 14/23 at the line. Make me sick. Atlanta tried its best to give the game away. Will try to have a clear head for the next one but probably just need to leave that alone.
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