I should probably come up with some sort of format for this instead of just rambling, but not today!
Seattle has won 4 straight. Their last loss? At home by 7 to this Connecticut Sun team. Seattle had a 6 point lead after 1, and another 6 point lead after 3. They lead by as many as 13 in the first half and had a 53-63 lead late in the third. The 4th quarter was 32-19 in favour of Connecticut and they walked away with a pretty comfortable victory after trailing most of the game. This is the second of three games that will be played between these two teams during the regular season and both games remaining will be played in Connecticut. Teams don't always get revenge and they don't always care about revenge but that loss was recent enough and painful enough that I think it will be on the minds of every Seattle player tonight. Not to mention, Seattle now sits at 4th overall (0.5 games behind Chicago) and a win tonight would have them trailing the Sun by just half a game for that #2 spot.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
29-35 +2.1U
STORM@SUN
I should probably come up with some sort of format for this instead of just rambling, but not today!
Seattle has won 4 straight. Their last loss? At home by 7 to this Connecticut Sun team. Seattle had a 6 point lead after 1, and another 6 point lead after 3. They lead by as many as 13 in the first half and had a 53-63 lead late in the third. The 4th quarter was 32-19 in favour of Connecticut and they walked away with a pretty comfortable victory after trailing most of the game. This is the second of three games that will be played between these two teams during the regular season and both games remaining will be played in Connecticut. Teams don't always get revenge and they don't always care about revenge but that loss was recent enough and painful enough that I think it will be on the minds of every Seattle player tonight. Not to mention, Seattle now sits at 4th overall (0.5 games behind Chicago) and a win tonight would have them trailing the Sun by just half a game for that #2 spot.
No look ahead, either way, but I will tease that I plan to be all over the Liberty tomorrow if Seattle get this win or at least keeps it close. Seattle gets an extra day of rest coming in but have played 3 straight road games since the night of the 10th. In that same time, Connecticut lost to the Sky on their home floor and then had 3 nights off before dropping 105 on the Dream. Connecticut was obviously frustrated by the Chicago loss and took out their anger on Atlanta. Honestly, this game was over so early it's almost not worth talking about. Up by 9 after 1 and 17 at the half. 27 pt lead for the Sun heading into the 4th. Three starters played 20 minutes or less and none played more than 24. Physically, the Sun team should be well rested but I think they have lost some competitive momentum. That Chicago game was really important to them and they fell flat on their faces. They stewed in that loss for a few days and then shot the lights out against mediocre competition (league-leading defense though). It's still just one game. So how good was the shooting even when we count the 4th quarter where they stopped trying? 40/77 (52%) overall and 14/26 (54%) from 3. On may 20th, they went 11/19 from 3 (58%) against the Fever and two days later they shot 35/68 (52%) from the field. On June 2nd the Sun shot 36/72 (50%) from the field in a win over LV. Finally, in this last game against Seattle they shot 32/58 (55%) overall. This game against Atlanta is the only game this season where they managed 50% or better from the field as well as 3. Despite the results of these two games, the Sun need to come out with the energy they had against Chicago to match up with Seattle tonight and I'm not convinced they can flip the switch like that. Atlanta was basically no resistance at all and Seattle should be very different.
Anyway, this is less a fade of the Sun and more of a play on the Storm. Sue Bird is questionable for this one, but she has already made an impact on this game. Whether she plays or not, her retirement announcement yesterday is huge. As I said before, at 9-5 Seattle is right in the mix at 4th. They may be 3 games behind Las Vegas but only a half game behind Chicago for 3rd and a game and a half behind Connecticut. There is a bit of a line emerging in the standings. Atlanta sits at .500 and Washington is the only other team I have not mentioned that is .500 or better. In my mind, Washington is on the outside looking in especially if this season continues as it has with EDD. Now, I am not saying that Seattle will make it as high as #2 by the end of the season but I think it still has to be a goal for them and there's reason to believe they could do it. My belief is somewhat irrelevant. Do the Storm believe? I think so and even if they don't, Sue's announcement should have them focused on the ultimate goal to give her the perfect send off. No byes this year in the playoffs. We are back to an 8 team bracket with 1vs8, 2vs7, etc. No re-seeding. Assuming LV holds on to #1, that number 2 spot will guarantee you keep your distance from the Aces until the end and also provide homecourt advantage until the Finals. Both are worth fighting for. Catching LV would be more difficult (obviously) but looking at the schedule, 2 of Seattle's last 4 games this season will be against LV, meaning that it could be completely out of their control by that time. If Seattle can get to that point of the season within 2 games of the Aces, things could get really spicy.
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No look ahead, either way, but I will tease that I plan to be all over the Liberty tomorrow if Seattle get this win or at least keeps it close. Seattle gets an extra day of rest coming in but have played 3 straight road games since the night of the 10th. In that same time, Connecticut lost to the Sky on their home floor and then had 3 nights off before dropping 105 on the Dream. Connecticut was obviously frustrated by the Chicago loss and took out their anger on Atlanta. Honestly, this game was over so early it's almost not worth talking about. Up by 9 after 1 and 17 at the half. 27 pt lead for the Sun heading into the 4th. Three starters played 20 minutes or less and none played more than 24. Physically, the Sun team should be well rested but I think they have lost some competitive momentum. That Chicago game was really important to them and they fell flat on their faces. They stewed in that loss for a few days and then shot the lights out against mediocre competition (league-leading defense though). It's still just one game. So how good was the shooting even when we count the 4th quarter where they stopped trying? 40/77 (52%) overall and 14/26 (54%) from 3. On may 20th, they went 11/19 from 3 (58%) against the Fever and two days later they shot 35/68 (52%) from the field. On June 2nd the Sun shot 36/72 (50%) from the field in a win over LV. Finally, in this last game against Seattle they shot 32/58 (55%) overall. This game against Atlanta is the only game this season where they managed 50% or better from the field as well as 3. Despite the results of these two games, the Sun need to come out with the energy they had against Chicago to match up with Seattle tonight and I'm not convinced they can flip the switch like that. Atlanta was basically no resistance at all and Seattle should be very different.
Anyway, this is less a fade of the Sun and more of a play on the Storm. Sue Bird is questionable for this one, but she has already made an impact on this game. Whether she plays or not, her retirement announcement yesterday is huge. As I said before, at 9-5 Seattle is right in the mix at 4th. They may be 3 games behind Las Vegas but only a half game behind Chicago for 3rd and a game and a half behind Connecticut. There is a bit of a line emerging in the standings. Atlanta sits at .500 and Washington is the only other team I have not mentioned that is .500 or better. In my mind, Washington is on the outside looking in especially if this season continues as it has with EDD. Now, I am not saying that Seattle will make it as high as #2 by the end of the season but I think it still has to be a goal for them and there's reason to believe they could do it. My belief is somewhat irrelevant. Do the Storm believe? I think so and even if they don't, Sue's announcement should have them focused on the ultimate goal to give her the perfect send off. No byes this year in the playoffs. We are back to an 8 team bracket with 1vs8, 2vs7, etc. No re-seeding. Assuming LV holds on to #1, that number 2 spot will guarantee you keep your distance from the Aces until the end and also provide homecourt advantage until the Finals. Both are worth fighting for. Catching LV would be more difficult (obviously) but looking at the schedule, 2 of Seattle's last 4 games this season will be against LV, meaning that it could be completely out of their control by that time. If Seattle can get to that point of the season within 2 games of the Aces, things could get really spicy.
Aside from season long injuries, the Sun appear to be at full strength. We know Russel won't play for the Storm and Bird might sit out as well. Not ideal, but also not the end of the world. It would be nice to have another big body inside to deal with Connecticut's 39 points per game in the paint, but I have faith in the other pieces to step up tonight. Similar to how I expected Howard to step up for her team yesterday (man, did she), I am also expecting a better game from Breanna Stewart. 12 points in that game on June 5th against Connecticut is her lowest mark for the season. 4 made field goals is also a season low. 3 rebounds, also a season low. This was definitely her worst game of the season and when that happens in big games it sticks with you. I'm sure Breanna carries more of the weight of that loss than her teammates whether that is fair or not. This is the star mentality. I will give some credit to the Sun and their defense, but I'd also like to see them do it again. Seattle should make some adjustments and Stewie should get hers. She didn't have an amazing bounce back after that game against Atlanta but that is the #1 D in the league. She still had 19 and 7, going 3/7 from 3 and the team won pretty comfortably. In the next three games leading up to this one, she has avgd just under 29 points per game, 9 rebounds and 3 assists. In those 3 games she has gone 30/55 (54.5%) from the field, 5/13 from 3 (38.5%), and 21/24 (87.5%) from the line. Certainly in "good form", as they say.
Listen, the Storm probably had a feeling this announcement was coming. If not this year, then very soon. Mentally, they have been preparing to say goodbye to Bird for a while and with her announcement it is now time to get serious. Honestly, I have a lot of respect for Bird. I think she really understands the mental and emotional side of this game and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this announcement was a bit calculated. I think she knows how big this game is. Pretty much as big as it can get in the first half of a season. A statement game, a measuring stick, a game to make the team believe they can go all the way.
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Aside from season long injuries, the Sun appear to be at full strength. We know Russel won't play for the Storm and Bird might sit out as well. Not ideal, but also not the end of the world. It would be nice to have another big body inside to deal with Connecticut's 39 points per game in the paint, but I have faith in the other pieces to step up tonight. Similar to how I expected Howard to step up for her team yesterday (man, did she), I am also expecting a better game from Breanna Stewart. 12 points in that game on June 5th against Connecticut is her lowest mark for the season. 4 made field goals is also a season low. 3 rebounds, also a season low. This was definitely her worst game of the season and when that happens in big games it sticks with you. I'm sure Breanna carries more of the weight of that loss than her teammates whether that is fair or not. This is the star mentality. I will give some credit to the Sun and their defense, but I'd also like to see them do it again. Seattle should make some adjustments and Stewie should get hers. She didn't have an amazing bounce back after that game against Atlanta but that is the #1 D in the league. She still had 19 and 7, going 3/7 from 3 and the team won pretty comfortably. In the next three games leading up to this one, she has avgd just under 29 points per game, 9 rebounds and 3 assists. In those 3 games she has gone 30/55 (54.5%) from the field, 5/13 from 3 (38.5%), and 21/24 (87.5%) from the line. Certainly in "good form", as they say.
Listen, the Storm probably had a feeling this announcement was coming. If not this year, then very soon. Mentally, they have been preparing to say goodbye to Bird for a while and with her announcement it is now time to get serious. Honestly, I have a lot of respect for Bird. I think she really understands the mental and emotional side of this game and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this announcement was a bit calculated. I think she knows how big this game is. Pretty much as big as it can get in the first half of a season. A statement game, a measuring stick, a game to make the team believe they can go all the way.
While the victory against Minnesota looks pretty weak, this was a rough spot for Seattle after two tough wins in Dallas. I don't hold that score against them and honestly think it's impressive that they came away with the win. Similar to how Connecticut was pulling out some solid wins in tough spots on the road not too long ago.
Just like yesterday, I wanna close this one out with some "fun" numbers. DID YOU KNOW!? The Sun and Storm are 1st and 2nd in the W when it comes to points generated off turnovers. CON clocks in at 21.2 per game and the Storm boast 19.1. Pretty sizeable difference, but I think coming at it from a different angle more than eliminates this 2 pt difference. When it comes to allowing points off turnovers, Connecticut is in the bottom 4 with 17.2 where as Seattle sits atop the league at 13.4. The CON d is solid but the numbers are a bit inflated from beating up on weak competition. Season stats like this can show you where the team's focus resides. Both teams love to generate turnovers and score but only one of these teams has proven they can limit their opponents in this category. Though not as drastic but still similar to CON, the Storm hold a pretty sizeable lead over the next best team in this category of 1.2 points. My concern in this game for Seattle does come down to the paint. Connecticut is 3rd best for pitp and Seattle is third worst giving them up. A considerable amount of these paint points happen on the offensive boards and if Seattle struggles to get one and done then they at least need to generate some extra possessions on defense. Sun are #2 in 2nd chance points with 13.3. Storm are #4 in 2nd chance points with 11.4. Sun are #2 in giving up 2nd chance points at 9 and Storm are 10th at 11.6. These numbers don't favour Seattle as much as they favoured the Liberty yesterday but it's still an interesting contrast for this matchup. The real showdown is probably Storm points off turnovers and fast break vs. Sun second chance points and in the paint.
7 is a lot of points and more than I expected to get but this is just how it goes with Connecticut. They were favoured by a bit less at home against Chicago like a week ago and Chicago is just a half game ahead of the Storm in the standings. CON has blown a bunch of teams out and I think recency bias really comes into play for this line today and how people are betting. Perhaps they remember the Storm 4th quarter collapse on their home floor to this team not too long ago or perhaps they see that they barely managed to beat a Fowles-less Lynx team a few nights ago in contrast to the 105 points scored by Connecticut. Whatever the case, I'll take it and I am more than happy to be in the 30-35% minority. Plenty of value on the Seattle side for me.
SEA Storm +7.5 @ CON Sun (-110) 4U
SEA Storm ML @ CON Sun (+270) 1U
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While the victory against Minnesota looks pretty weak, this was a rough spot for Seattle after two tough wins in Dallas. I don't hold that score against them and honestly think it's impressive that they came away with the win. Similar to how Connecticut was pulling out some solid wins in tough spots on the road not too long ago.
Just like yesterday, I wanna close this one out with some "fun" numbers. DID YOU KNOW!? The Sun and Storm are 1st and 2nd in the W when it comes to points generated off turnovers. CON clocks in at 21.2 per game and the Storm boast 19.1. Pretty sizeable difference, but I think coming at it from a different angle more than eliminates this 2 pt difference. When it comes to allowing points off turnovers, Connecticut is in the bottom 4 with 17.2 where as Seattle sits atop the league at 13.4. The CON d is solid but the numbers are a bit inflated from beating up on weak competition. Season stats like this can show you where the team's focus resides. Both teams love to generate turnovers and score but only one of these teams has proven they can limit their opponents in this category. Though not as drastic but still similar to CON, the Storm hold a pretty sizeable lead over the next best team in this category of 1.2 points. My concern in this game for Seattle does come down to the paint. Connecticut is 3rd best for pitp and Seattle is third worst giving them up. A considerable amount of these paint points happen on the offensive boards and if Seattle struggles to get one and done then they at least need to generate some extra possessions on defense. Sun are #2 in 2nd chance points with 13.3. Storm are #4 in 2nd chance points with 11.4. Sun are #2 in giving up 2nd chance points at 9 and Storm are 10th at 11.6. These numbers don't favour Seattle as much as they favoured the Liberty yesterday but it's still an interesting contrast for this matchup. The real showdown is probably Storm points off turnovers and fast break vs. Sun second chance points and in the paint.
7 is a lot of points and more than I expected to get but this is just how it goes with Connecticut. They were favoured by a bit less at home against Chicago like a week ago and Chicago is just a half game ahead of the Storm in the standings. CON has blown a bunch of teams out and I think recency bias really comes into play for this line today and how people are betting. Perhaps they remember the Storm 4th quarter collapse on their home floor to this team not too long ago or perhaps they see that they barely managed to beat a Fowles-less Lynx team a few nights ago in contrast to the 105 points scored by Connecticut. Whatever the case, I'll take it and I am more than happy to be in the 30-35% minority. Plenty of value on the Seattle side for me.
What a 5 game stretch for the Wings. When this month started, they were 5-4 and on the 3rd they picked up a 68-51 victory in Seattle. That was directly followed by 4 straight losses @LV, vs.SEA, vs.SEA, and vs.LV. Mabrey missed two of those games and played less than 20 minutes in another. She looked great in her return though with 18pts in just 26 minutes of 7/15 and 3/7 from 3. Additionally, Satou Sabally who had been starting for this team and playing very well was hurt halfway through the second game against Seattle and missed the most recent game. She will not play tonight either. In my opinion, she is by far their best big and her recent starts support this. It's not just her ability, but her size, speed, and skillset are perfect for the way Dallas wants to play. So ya, missing her tonight hurts but I don't think it hurts enough. On the other side, Sophie Cunningham will be missing this game for PHX. Sabally is the bigger loss, but the Cunningham absence isn't nothing. She usually plays 25-30 minutes a game and even if the box score doesn't look great, she is a big shot taker/maker and is a pleasant surprise on the boards. Her rebounding may be what the Mercury miss the most tonight with Dallas entering this game at the top in 2nd chance points per game (13.4). PHX is very middling when it comes to stopping these baskets and it will be harder without Cunningham. In the last game for PHX they actually got out rebounded at Indiana 33-39 overall and 5-16 on the offensive boards but still won the game comfortably thanks to horrible shooting on the part of the Fever. Indiana is 8th in the league for rebounding. Phoenix is 11th. Dallas is tied for 3rd. Wings and Fever are 11th and 12th for FG% in the league so ya there's a chance that Dallas just bricks these opportunities tonight but I wouldn't bet on it.
Dallas opponents have scored a lot of points in the paint (38.2 per game, 2nd worst), but Phoenix isn't likely to exploit this with the 8th most pitp this season. Furthermore, even if Sabally fits this team much better her absence should mean more minutes for someone like McCowan. I will keep most of my opinions about her to myself but the fact remains that she has the tools to be a solid paint defender and rebounder.
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MERCURY@WINGS
What a 5 game stretch for the Wings. When this month started, they were 5-4 and on the 3rd they picked up a 68-51 victory in Seattle. That was directly followed by 4 straight losses @LV, vs.SEA, vs.SEA, and vs.LV. Mabrey missed two of those games and played less than 20 minutes in another. She looked great in her return though with 18pts in just 26 minutes of 7/15 and 3/7 from 3. Additionally, Satou Sabally who had been starting for this team and playing very well was hurt halfway through the second game against Seattle and missed the most recent game. She will not play tonight either. In my opinion, she is by far their best big and her recent starts support this. It's not just her ability, but her size, speed, and skillset are perfect for the way Dallas wants to play. So ya, missing her tonight hurts but I don't think it hurts enough. On the other side, Sophie Cunningham will be missing this game for PHX. Sabally is the bigger loss, but the Cunningham absence isn't nothing. She usually plays 25-30 minutes a game and even if the box score doesn't look great, she is a big shot taker/maker and is a pleasant surprise on the boards. Her rebounding may be what the Mercury miss the most tonight with Dallas entering this game at the top in 2nd chance points per game (13.4). PHX is very middling when it comes to stopping these baskets and it will be harder without Cunningham. In the last game for PHX they actually got out rebounded at Indiana 33-39 overall and 5-16 on the offensive boards but still won the game comfortably thanks to horrible shooting on the part of the Fever. Indiana is 8th in the league for rebounding. Phoenix is 11th. Dallas is tied for 3rd. Wings and Fever are 11th and 12th for FG% in the league so ya there's a chance that Dallas just bricks these opportunities tonight but I wouldn't bet on it.
Dallas opponents have scored a lot of points in the paint (38.2 per game, 2nd worst), but Phoenix isn't likely to exploit this with the 8th most pitp this season. Furthermore, even if Sabally fits this team much better her absence should mean more minutes for someone like McCowan. I will keep most of my opinions about her to myself but the fact remains that she has the tools to be a solid paint defender and rebounder.
More schedule talk. This stretch was rough for Dallas and going 1-4 definitely hurts. They had a real shot at winning basically any of those 4 games that they lost but simply didn't. If my line research is correct, Dallas went 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS during that stretch. The frustration is real for this team (Arike punting the ball a couple games ago) and the second half of this month holds nothing but teams under .500 including 2 against this Mercury team, one against the Fever and one @ Minnesota. I absolutely expect to see this team back over .500 by July and I think that starts tonight. Let's look at the last 5 games for Phoenix. On June 5th, they snapped a 7 game losing streak against LA. Including that game, they are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the only loss at Washington after and OT victory as large dogs. The victory over the Mystics is a bit inflated at 9 points. This game went to OT. The victory prior to that vs Atlanta was also very close and PHX only won by a basket (did not cover). They have alternated ATS wins and losses during that time going 3-2. If the pattern holds, they will not cover tonight but that is some basic thinking. In the second game at Washington, this team really looked exhausted and despite playing on a back to back they pulled out a 13 pt win in Indiana. Again, I think this has much more to do with the Fever being inept than the Mercury's ability or current form. It is also notable that PHX was in Washington on the 14th, in Indiana on the 15th and now travels to Dallas. The Wings, conversely, have been at home for over a week and are 0-3 on this homestand with 2 games left. One of the most misleading stats so far this season is Dallas 1-5 at home. First of all, until June 10th the Wings had only played 3 games at home. That means they had played 11 of their first 14 on the road. I know Sabally won't be playing tonight, but the first two Dallas losses at home both came before she joined the team. The lone win is over Minnesota which isn't impressive. The other three losses just happened recently vs.SEA twice and the Aces most recently. Sure, Dallas hasn't proven much at home by result but this team is way better than 1-5 even with injuries. Pythagoras puts em at 7 wins, not 6. Besides, PHX is 3-6 on the road. Granted neither team is satisfied with their record right now, but there is no doubt in my mind that Dallas will be the hungrier team tonight. 1-4 in the last 5 vs. 4-1 tells me everything I need to know. Also, the second half of June for PHX is silly. They will play Dallas twice but they also just played the Fever, have a two game mini series against Minnesota after this and finish the month off with two more games hosting Indiana. They will have plenty of chances coming up to pick up wins and likely cannot match the urgency of Dallas tonight. At least, I hope not :)
PHX Mercury @ DAL Wings -5 (-110) 3U
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More schedule talk. This stretch was rough for Dallas and going 1-4 definitely hurts. They had a real shot at winning basically any of those 4 games that they lost but simply didn't. If my line research is correct, Dallas went 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS during that stretch. The frustration is real for this team (Arike punting the ball a couple games ago) and the second half of this month holds nothing but teams under .500 including 2 against this Mercury team, one against the Fever and one @ Minnesota. I absolutely expect to see this team back over .500 by July and I think that starts tonight. Let's look at the last 5 games for Phoenix. On June 5th, they snapped a 7 game losing streak against LA. Including that game, they are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the only loss at Washington after and OT victory as large dogs. The victory over the Mystics is a bit inflated at 9 points. This game went to OT. The victory prior to that vs Atlanta was also very close and PHX only won by a basket (did not cover). They have alternated ATS wins and losses during that time going 3-2. If the pattern holds, they will not cover tonight but that is some basic thinking. In the second game at Washington, this team really looked exhausted and despite playing on a back to back they pulled out a 13 pt win in Indiana. Again, I think this has much more to do with the Fever being inept than the Mercury's ability or current form. It is also notable that PHX was in Washington on the 14th, in Indiana on the 15th and now travels to Dallas. The Wings, conversely, have been at home for over a week and are 0-3 on this homestand with 2 games left. One of the most misleading stats so far this season is Dallas 1-5 at home. First of all, until June 10th the Wings had only played 3 games at home. That means they had played 11 of their first 14 on the road. I know Sabally won't be playing tonight, but the first two Dallas losses at home both came before she joined the team. The lone win is over Minnesota which isn't impressive. The other three losses just happened recently vs.SEA twice and the Aces most recently. Sure, Dallas hasn't proven much at home by result but this team is way better than 1-5 even with injuries. Pythagoras puts em at 7 wins, not 6. Besides, PHX is 3-6 on the road. Granted neither team is satisfied with their record right now, but there is no doubt in my mind that Dallas will be the hungrier team tonight. 1-4 in the last 5 vs. 4-1 tells me everything I need to know. Also, the second half of June for PHX is silly. They will play Dallas twice but they also just played the Fever, have a two game mini series against Minnesota after this and finish the month off with two more games hosting Indiana. They will have plenty of chances coming up to pick up wins and likely cannot match the urgency of Dallas tonight. At least, I hope not :)
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