Will update record but just wanna get the play in first.
It’s been a really rough stretch for Dallas and I would love to show the dog some love today but I think LV has the advantage today. Early start for the road team, injuries on both sides but less depth and options for Dallas. Arike is frustrated and that doesn’t seem to be leading to success. They will get right soon but against the best team in the league today maybe not. Dallas played two tough games against Seattle while LV beat up on the Sparks.
LV ACES -9 (-110) @ DAL Wings 1U
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Will update record but just wanna get the play in first.
It’s been a really rough stretch for Dallas and I would love to show the dog some love today but I think LV has the advantage today. Early start for the road team, injuries on both sides but less depth and options for Dallas. Arike is frustrated and that doesn’t seem to be leading to success. They will get right soon but against the best team in the league today maybe not. Dallas played two tough games against Seattle while LV beat up on the Sparks.
Got another one of those “it works better for me this way” plays, but that’s not all that makes me like the Sun today, even with the big number.
Rest is even for both teams. Dream have dropped two straight on the road and are now 3-3 away from home/4-3 at home. The location seems to have less impact on the result than the opponent but, for the record, Atlanta only avgs 75 pts a game (worst in the league) and that number is worse on the road.
Another important number for Atlanta in this one is turnovers. They are also the worst in the league for this category at almost 18 a game. Connecticut isn’t much better at 16. Both teams look to generate offence from their opponents turnovers. Sun are the best in the league at this with 21.2 and 24.4% of their pts. Atlanta is middling at 16 and 21.3%. Atlanta actually gets 18.4% of their pts in the mid range which is just crazy for today’s basketball. The next highest % is Seattle at 13.1%.
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ATL@SUN
Got another one of those “it works better for me this way” plays, but that’s not all that makes me like the Sun today, even with the big number.
Rest is even for both teams. Dream have dropped two straight on the road and are now 3-3 away from home/4-3 at home. The location seems to have less impact on the result than the opponent but, for the record, Atlanta only avgs 75 pts a game (worst in the league) and that number is worse on the road.
Another important number for Atlanta in this one is turnovers. They are also the worst in the league for this category at almost 18 a game. Connecticut isn’t much better at 16. Both teams look to generate offence from their opponents turnovers. Sun are the best in the league at this with 21.2 and 24.4% of their pts. Atlanta is middling at 16 and 21.3%. Atlanta actually gets 18.4% of their pts in the mid range which is just crazy for today’s basketball. The next highest % is Seattle at 13.1%.
As always, Atlanta’s defence could keep them in this game. They have the best defensive rating in the league (91.1) and the strength of this D is in the paint where they allow a league low 26.2 per game. That is an impressive 3.4 better than the next closest team (WAS). They are also the best in the league at limiting second chance points (8.8). This is all relevant as the Sun are 3rd for points in the paint (38.9) and 2nd for second chance points (13.3).The Sun are no slump on D though, and their offense is far superior. For D rating, #2-6 are all pretty close with 2 being WAS at 95.6 and 6 being CHI with 97.2. Sun are a bit better than CHI at 96.7. Atlanta has the best D rating in the league and that rating is 4.5 better than the next closest team. BUT WAIT. DID YOU KNOW THAT THE DREAM ARE 0-5 against teams with in the top HALF of the W for defensive rating. In order, those teams are ATL, WAS, SEA, LV, CON, and CHI. CON is the only team on this list that ATL has not faced and 5 of their 6 losses came at the hands of teams like this.
What I see is that when Atlanta can shut down teams and get out in transition and score they are able to build leads and put teams away but when they can’t get easy buckets the team looks a lot worse. Atlanta may find some success in slowing down Connecticut today but I think they will also struggle mightily to score themselves.
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As always, Atlanta’s defence could keep them in this game. They have the best defensive rating in the league (91.1) and the strength of this D is in the paint where they allow a league low 26.2 per game. That is an impressive 3.4 better than the next closest team (WAS). They are also the best in the league at limiting second chance points (8.8). This is all relevant as the Sun are 3rd for points in the paint (38.9) and 2nd for second chance points (13.3).The Sun are no slump on D though, and their offense is far superior. For D rating, #2-6 are all pretty close with 2 being WAS at 95.6 and 6 being CHI with 97.2. Sun are a bit better than CHI at 96.7. Atlanta has the best D rating in the league and that rating is 4.5 better than the next closest team. BUT WAIT. DID YOU KNOW THAT THE DREAM ARE 0-5 against teams with in the top HALF of the W for defensive rating. In order, those teams are ATL, WAS, SEA, LV, CON, and CHI. CON is the only team on this list that ATL has not faced and 5 of their 6 losses came at the hands of teams like this.
What I see is that when Atlanta can shut down teams and get out in transition and score they are able to build leads and put teams away but when they can’t get easy buckets the team looks a lot worse. Atlanta may find some success in slowing down Connecticut today but I think they will also struggle mightily to score themselves.
The margin of “victory” in those 5 games is -13.6 and three of those losses came by 12 or more points and two of those were on the road. They lost by 5 to Washington on their home floor then managed only 50 points in Washington the next game and lost by 20.
In a lot of ways, I think CON is just a better version of ATL. Nothing against ATL. They are younger. They will develop and learn. My point is simply that both teams play in similar ways, especially with an emphasis on turning the other team over to generate offence. The pace, the turnover rate, the focus on controlling the paint. It’s all there in varying degrees.
Motivation-wise, Atlanta has lost two straight and obviously won’t want to fall to .500 but I don’t think that compares to this recent loss for the Sun. No shame in losing to the defending champs but this was a measuring stick game for CON and they fell short as 6-7 point favourites. Not only that, but it was a 4th quarter collapse that did them in. Look for the Sun to play 40 minutes today and stretch the lead in the second half. Sun take out some anger today.
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The margin of “victory” in those 5 games is -13.6 and three of those losses came by 12 or more points and two of those were on the road. They lost by 5 to Washington on their home floor then managed only 50 points in Washington the next game and lost by 20.
In a lot of ways, I think CON is just a better version of ATL. Nothing against ATL. They are younger. They will develop and learn. My point is simply that both teams play in similar ways, especially with an emphasis on turning the other team over to generate offence. The pace, the turnover rate, the focus on controlling the paint. It’s all there in varying degrees.
Motivation-wise, Atlanta has lost two straight and obviously won’t want to fall to .500 but I don’t think that compares to this recent loss for the Sun. No shame in losing to the defending champs but this was a measuring stick game for CON and they fell short as 6-7 point favourites. Not only that, but it was a 4th quarter collapse that did them in. Look for the Sun to play 40 minutes today and stretch the lead in the second half. Sun take out some anger today.
PHX has been playing much better ball but looked tired against Washington. They also shot very poorly in that game. As a team, I am sure they are looking forward to the rest of this month and moving up the standings. They will have two games in Dallas but every other game will be against the Lynx or Fever. They should get up in a few days at Dallas but this is game 3 of 4 on the road trip, a back to back, and they just had their momentum squashed. They should shoot it better tonight, but I think effort will be lacking on defense. Like I said, I just think this team is tired and running around with the Fever should be rough tonight.
Then again, we are talking about the Fever.
Lord give me strength. Mercury are clearly the better team but I think this is a rough spot to bounce back.
PHX Mercury @ IND Fever -1 (-110) 2U
PHX Mercury @ IND Fever OVER 170.0 (-110) 1U
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MERCURY@FEVER
PHX has been playing much better ball but looked tired against Washington. They also shot very poorly in that game. As a team, I am sure they are looking forward to the rest of this month and moving up the standings. They will have two games in Dallas but every other game will be against the Lynx or Fever. They should get up in a few days at Dallas but this is game 3 of 4 on the road trip, a back to back, and they just had their momentum squashed. They should shoot it better tonight, but I think effort will be lacking on defense. Like I said, I just think this team is tired and running around with the Fever should be rough tonight.
Then again, we are talking about the Fever.
Lord give me strength. Mercury are clearly the better team but I think this is a rough spot to bounce back.
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