21/06/22

31-40 -8.9U

Should have just taken Sunday off as I was out of town. Won’t get into the details because I can’t change the past. 

MIN Lynx @ PHX Mercury OVER 168.0 (-110) 1U

More coming  

Shit, typing too fast in the early morning. 

CORRECTION:

MIN Lynx @ PHX Mercury UNDER 168.0 (-110) 1U

Adding:

MIN Lynx @ PHX Mercury -5 (-110)

WAS Mystics @ LA Sparks +3 (-110) 4U

WAS Mystics @ LA Sparks ML (+130) 1U

Mercury -5(-110) 2U

I am confused about this Dallas@Atlanta line. Dropped about 2.5-3 pts since early this morning and I see no change in the injury info. I see some shooting trends that make me want to fade the Wings but staying away until I can make sense of the line movement.

@LippyLeans Yeah very intriguing but I'm not overthinking it. Way too many ATL injuries, Coffey is an important player and they are already thin at the Guard position now Wallace is out, I'll take DAL and deal with whatever comes. 

Like the Mercury as well, GL

LYNX@MERCURY`

Five straight losses for the Lynx but things are starting to look better for them. After losing to the mystics by 17 on their homefloor and folowing that up with a loss to the Fever also in Minnesota, they have really competed in their last two losing by only 2 to Seattle and just 1 in Las Vegas. Jessica Shepard just played the greatest game of her life. This team has been playing with amazing effort and as time goes on they are certainly adjusting to life without Fowles. Recently though, as in those last two games, their opponents have been in pretty big look ahead spots. The Aces were looking ahead to their game today with the defending champs and Seattle before them was looking ahead to a revenge game with the #2 Sun. These teams underestimated the Lynx and that gave them life. In the other two games that the Lynx have played without Fowles, this was not the case. Washington came to town off a win but they barely escaped with that win and were just 1-2 in their last 3, 2-3 in their last 5, 3-4 in their last 7... They were also without EDD which helped them not underestimate an opponent missing a star player. They had the Mercury on deck so no look ahead either. Indiana came to town on a 5 game losing streak.  They also had PHX on deck, strangely. Will PHX underestimate Minnesota? 

After two straight hard fought heartbreaking losses, I think the tank may be running a bit low for Minnesota. I fully expect them to break this losing streak against Phoenix, just not tonight. At 6-10, Phoenix is still nowhere near where they expected to be this season. After snapping a 7 game L streak, they are now 4-2 in their last 6 but coming off a 5 pt loss in Dallas. It was not too long ago that PHX was carrying the weight of the big losing streak. They should understand the Lynx mentality well. I am a little worried about PHX depth. They are still missing Sophie and are basically just playing 6 women a night and coming off a 4 game road trip but they've had 3 nights off at home compared to Lynx 1 night on the road. I'm hoping it's not an issue tonight and becomes an issue next game. 

Tina Charles seems to have finally settled in 6 straight dd games compared to only 5 of her first 8. DT had an off night but actually her numbers were quite similar to three games ago when they lost in Washington. The response in Indiana was solid and I will hope for the same tonight. Perceived fatigue on both sides and expected regression on the side of Minnesota have me on the under as well.

WINGS@DREAM

Weird line movement for this one.

The Wings present some of the same challenges as the Sun who beat the Dream recently. I think the differences may provide a different result for Atlanta in this one. 

Getting right into it with some numbers. Dallas is 1st in the league for 2nd chance points at 13.3 (CON is 2nd at 12.6). ATL is 2nd in limiting these points at 9.2 (1st is WAS at 9.1). As a correlation, DAL o reb% is 2nd with 34.3% (1st is CON with 36.6%, wow). ATL is 2nd in limiting this percentage at 26.1% (LV is 1st at 25%). So Dallas generates a lot of 2nd chances but not as many as the SUN although they score more points with less chances. Scoring more pts on less chances, noted. 

Dallas fast break pts are 2nd in the league at 11.9 (Sun right behind at 3rd with 11.8). Atlanta turns the ball over the most in the league with 17.4 per game but somehow is still 6th in limiting fbps at 9.0. That's only 0.7 behind the best in the league for that category which  is Washington at 8.3. Conversely, 8th-12th in this category range from 10.5 to 14.4 per game. 6th sounds a lot worse than it is. Once again, it would seem that Atlanta is pretty good at stopping an aspect of the game that Dallas is good at though maybe not to the same degree. 

Atlanta's turnover numbers are also a little confusing. Yes this is a young team playing with pace but they lean so much on isolation. 43.5% of their made field goals this season are unassisted. Yes, that is #1 in the league. #2 is at 38%. They also get 16.1% of their pts in the mid range which is also #1. Again, #2 is far behind at 12.7%. I think these numbers are a big reason why we are seeing a bit of a bubble burst for Atlanta in addition to the injuries which obviously don't help. The thing about injuries is that it often forces a team to reevaluate its strengths and adjust its style of play. Maya Caldwell will be another guard for them tonight and she played with them in the preseason. I don't know what her impact will be but it's another body who is familiar with the team and should be pumped for another shot at a career in the W.

More numbers. Dallas FG% is 41.8% (2nd worst) and EFG% is 48.5% (4th worst). Atlanta opp FG% is 40.2% (1st) and opp EFG% is 46.1% (1st). Weakness for Dallas and strength for Atlanta. 

What about from 3? Dallas 3FG% is 36.7% (2nd). The Sun are 1st at 36.8%. Dallas 3pm is 9.3 (2nd). Seattle is 1st with 9.4 and Connecticut is actually 10th with 6.6 per game. Admittedly, it would seem that the "weakness" in the ATL d is defending from 3 but it's still really not that bad. Opponents avg 33.6% from deep (7th). 1st is LV with 30.3% and 12th is LA with 38.5%. Atlanta is much closer to 1st then the tag of 7th would imply. The stats on opp 3pm make more sense. Atlanta is 8th with 8. It ranges from 6.3 to 9.4 per game. 

Considering the numbers for Connecticut and Dallas with 2nd chances and scoring in that scenario and comparing them to the 3 point shooting, I think we get a clear picture. Look At those pitp numbers for Dallas again. When's the best time to shoot the 3? Offensive rebound? I've heard this before. Dallas clearly ascribes to this notion. If Atlanta can hold Dallas to one and dones, they should also limit the Wings 3pt shooting. This is my thinking. 

The injuries are a concern. The fast break numbers and turnover numbers are a concern. If Dallas wins it'll probably look pretty ugly because it will be a true failing on the part of Atlanta either in the sense of lack of chemistry or depth or whatever. There is no look ahead for Dallas but they have 2 days less rest and are forced to travel to Atlanta for one night breaking up what would have been 7 straight home games. They have also played 5 games since the 10th compared to just 3 for Atlanta. 

The fall has been rough for Atlanta that has gone from 7-4 to 7-8 and now sits under .500 for the first time this season. They sit at 7th overall with both PHX and NY just 1.5 games behind. Both of those teams are on the rise. The rope is burning for Atlanta and injuries have them with their back against the wall. 

Small sample size but home dogs returning from an 0-4 road trip are 1-0 this season and 4-1 all time beating the spread by almost 6 points. To be fair, this is also a 4-1 spot to go OVER with an average line of 160 and clearing by an average of 8. 

The league average for FG% is 43.7% and for 3FG% it is 34%. Dallas shot 48% from both two games ago and 45% from both in their last game. They also hit 12 threes in both games. I am expecting some large regression tonight. This season, teams off back to back wins where they shot better than league average from the field and from deep are 1-5 (-7). There are a bunch of different ways to slice this that will net slightly different results but in general the stats lean towards the home dog and the under. If anyone is curious I can share some more of these numbers late just don't have time right now as 7 approaches!

Whether it's Atlanta limiting Dallas' favourite scoring avenues or Dallas turning Atlanta over, it's hard for me to see both teams scoring in bunches throughout the game and so I will be adding the under. 

DAL Wings @ ATL Dream +4 (-110) 2U

DAL Wings @ ATL Dream UNDER 164.5 (-110) 1U

Final Card

DAL Wings @ ATL Dream +4 (-110) 2U

DAL Wings @ ATL Dream UNDER 164.5 (-110) 1U

MIN Lynx @ PHX Mercury -5 (-110) 2U

MIN Lynx @ PHX Mercury UNDER 168.0 (-110) 1U

WAS Mystics @ LA Sparks +3 (-110) 4U

WAS Mystics @ LA Sparks ML (+130) 1U

MYSTICS@SPARKS

No EDD tonight. Once again, Washington has faired well without her against lesser competition and struggled against the better teams. Now I am definitely not going to say the Sparks are one of the better teams but despite my personal detest for this team I do believe they are better than their record. 3 game losing streak, 0-2 since the Fisher firing. Fuck it, the Sparks haven't won a game since May and it's June 21st. That's because they've only played 3 games. This team is looking for its identity right now and they've certainly had plenty of time to practice but they also need time on the court to make it work. For the first time since May 31st, the Sparks will play a game on 1 night rest. They played 5 such games in May and won 4 of them. Same immediate rest for the mystics though they have played 8 games so far in June. This trip to LA is sandwiched between a visit from the Sun and a trip to the Storm. It is also the beginning of a three game road trip that ends in Las Vegas. This will be Washington's first meeting with either for teams. LV sits atop the league and the Storm are just in front of Washington in the standings. Plenty of reason to overlook LA tonight. 

Sparks lead the league in points in the paint at 41 a game. Washington is second in the league at limiting these points at 29.9 a game. That said, Washington's defensive numbers are a lot better with EDD. In their last game without her, the Liberty had 44 points in the paint. In their previous matchup which included EDD, NY was held to 24 points in the paint. About a week ago, Washington played a 2 game mini series with Phoenix. EDD played in only 1 game. Phoenix had 20 points in the paint that game. In the game that she missed, they had 30. Before that, Washington played a 2 game mini series with Chicago where again EDD only played 1 game. Chicago had 32 points in the paint that game. In the game that she missed, they had 50. On May 24th the Dream had 30 points in the paint against no EDD. 4 days later she took the court against them and that number dropped to 22. This defense is better with EDD and it has a lot to do with the paint. 

Washington has alternated victories and losses for 4 straight games and with the let down looming of handing Connecticut it's 5th loss (and holding them to a season low 63), I expect that to continue. I think it's also worth noting that despite an 11-7 record this team is just 6-6 since May 21st after starting 5-1. Sparks are 5-9 but 3-7 on the road. They've only played 4 games at home and at least they are .500 there. Dallas was in a similar position (having played so many road games) before they played 5 straight at home. They may have gone 2-3 in that stretch losing the first 3 but it was stiffer competition and they still covered the spread in 4 of those games including the first one as a dog. Three straight single digit scoring games for Cambage brings a smile to my face but I think she gets hers tonight.