31/05/22

8-5 +8.25U

I'm on the Wings today. Knew I would be. I've seen people grab as many as 3 points but we're at 1.5 right now. Of course it would be nice to get more points but I have Dallas winning this game regardless. ThaFazz covered the main points in their thread: "Not the best scheduling spot for the Sparks here. They’ve been playing every other day since the 23rd and have to travel east to west, meanwhile Wings have only played two games during that period with plenty of time to stew over their 31 point blowout loss last time out"

I will note that the wings went home after their last game so they are also traveling east to west but it is a shorter trip and they made that trip yesterday. Sparks were in Vegas on the 23rd then LA on the 25th (for their first home win - a 5 pt victory against the Mercury sans Cunningham or Peddy) and then went to Indiana for the 27th and a track meet game and then to Minnesota on the 29th to pull out a close one and now return home. There is plenty of both emotional and physical fatigue to be found in the last week or so for this team.

Yes, the wings are coming off a 31 point loss and their first loss on the road this season. They are the more rested team and they should also be the more motivated team. I have some concerns about Dallas' size and ability to deal with Cambage but proper deployment of McCowan should minimize her impact. 

DAL Wings +1.5 @ LA Sparks (-110) 4U

DAL Wings ML @ LA Sparks (+105) 1U

Still contemplating the rest of the card. Battle of #1 seeds? Mercury getting some players back and headed to Chicago for some finals revenge? Could be dropping a couple unders tonight.

Gl bro 

Wow the evening got away from me but I am taking some action in the Chicago game.

PHX Mercury +8.5 @ CHI Sky (-110) 2U

PHX Mercury @ CHI Sky UNDER 166.5 (-110) 1U

@ThaFazz

 Thanks, you too!

Loool Taurasi getting ejected. This team is having real issues. 

I am on record as saying that the Sun have not impressed me much but the more I look into this game, the more I am liking their chances tonight. The Aces really struggled in their last game down the stretch. That kind of stuff catches up to you, eventually. Maybe tonight? At 8-1, I think it's safe to say they have become the shared enemy of the league. Everybody wants to beat them. Connecticut is going to get two chances in a row, both in Las Vegas. Kind of like going on the road for game 1 and 2 of a playoff series. Can they steal game 1?

Las Vegas has a lot of impressive stats, but in a lot of these Connecticut is right behind. FG% (2nd, 3rd), 3pt FG% (1st, 2nd *though the actual gap is quite large like 2.5%), True shooting % (1st, 2nd), Offensive Rating (1st, 2nd). Then there are the clashing stats. Vegas is 1st in defensive rebounding and Con is 1st in O boards. Aces play at the second fastest pace, Sun are the slowest. Aces commit the least turnovers and Sun are 1st in steals. If the Sun can control the pace in this one and keep it close into the 4th quarter then I like their chances at covering this number or maybe even winning. It may be a cause of strength of schedule but the Sun do have a defensive rating 3 points better than the Aces. The difference in their offensive ratings is half that. If they fall short tonight, I may back them again next game so nothing huge on the line tonight. 

CON Sun +4 @ LV Aces (-110) 2U

Fyi wings are now a massive public bet

9-8 +2.65U

8.4 unit swing with Arike missing that first FT and not getting on the Wings til 1.5

OH WELL