Friday W

Early betonline lines are:

Mystics -6'    Aces   169'

Dream -9     Sky     171

Storm -5'     Lynx    162

Lynx and Sparks are taking turns playing stinkers this season....Sparks looked like worldbeaters versus the Lynx but losing multiple home games in a row,  LA was due to play pretty well.

I queried how teams have done off a big upset win (Sky)...the short answer is not very well.....I made some parameters that those teams won their previous game as an away dog of at least 6 points, they have at least one day of rest and playing their present game as an away conference dog.

Those teams were 4-13 ATS (-7.76) and 2-15 straight up (-14.35)

In the Aces/Mystics game, we have a team that is off an upset win as a road dog, coming home to play as a home non-con favorite.....teams in this situation have been 17-24 ATS (-2.73) and 28-13 straight up (+4.59).

Here's the query I used....

HF and p:ADW and rest>0 and not C and o:rest>0  and playoffs=0  

Finally, we have a team that lost as away dog, now playing as a  away dog the next night (Lynx)....teams in that situation have been 5-8-1 ATS (-1.50) and 4-10 straight up (-9.79) and 9-5 OVER (+3.07)

It's been my observation that when teams are on back to back games, that defense and rebounding become the biggest casualties.  As some of you saw the other night, the Mercury did just fine on a back-to-back when Taurisi hit 30+....I don't notice much change for the worse in teams' offense with no rest.

Early leans:

Aces, Dream,  Lynx OVER.

Last month, 19-10 ATS,

As my usual pattern, I played the opener in this game when it became available to bet, as I find trying to read line movement doesn't work for me.

Play

1)  Aces +6' -105

Poor teams from last year (won less than 16 games) off a loss playing as away non-conference dogs have been 59-28 ATS (+3.48). 

PRSW<16 and p:L and AD and not C and rest>0 and playoffs=0

If we add to the above query that their present opponent has won their last game on the road (Mystics won away versus the Dream last game), and op:AW to get:

PRSW<16 and p:L and AD and not C and rest>0 and op:AW and playoffs=0

We get 19-2 ATS (+8.36), 11-10 straight up (-1.76) with an average line of +10.1

Dirty Bill's team seems to play much better on the road and after a loss, which cements this play.

Play:

2)  Storm/Lynx OVER 163

We'll try again on an OVER after the Lynx couldn't throw it into an ocean last night.  The Storm will score and if the Lynx want to keep up, they'll have to match points with Seattle.

Seattle has the highest offensive efficiency rating in the W this year, and Lynx have the second best defensive efficiency....don't expect the Lynx to have their usual good defensive effort tonight after playing and then having to  travel.

Seattle can also put a stranglehold on the number 1 seed in the  competition, whereas a loss would put the Lynx up 2-0 against the Storm and give the Lynx the tie-breaker should the two teams end the regular season with the same records.   I expect the Storm will try to run the Lynx into submission and when you're tired it's always tougher to run back on defense than it is to run forward on offense.

I'll play the biggest fan of the Storm for tonight as I have them at +1667 and the Sun at +2600 to win the title this year.

Bought out of my Aces play at +6' and re-played at 8'

2)  Aces +8' -120

3)  Dream -8'

Looks like the public has bought into the fact that Vegas has had some travel difficulties.....pure adrenaline will get them there, and as other threads have said, their season is on the line.  What superhuman stuff most of us did when we were 23 year old athletes off no sleep or a binge?  Think back to those times, and you'll be amazed now what you did then. 

I'd be more inclined to worry about their peformance their next game, not this one.

My favorite poster, Brutal Joe is liking the Dream tonight and if I was on the ledge, he's pushed me off of it.  This year in the W, the bottom  three teams, Indy, the Sky and the Liberty have had HUGE upsets, but then have had complete collapses their next game.  Dream off a clunker and have revenge and are so physically superior to the Sky, I think they stomp them.

The one caveat in this Dream/Sky game is Atlanta realllllly needs this one, and those teams in must-win games often choke on their games versus carefree run/gun teams that have long since been eliminated.

Because the Aces were located in San Antonio last year and were the Stars, they don't show up in the indicated quaries, Dogbite.  They were something like 8-25 last year.

Well, we got a win with the Dream who took their time about stomping the Sky.....boy if I'm  Minnesota I'd give a couple of high picks to Chicago for Vandersloot, she is just what Minnesota could use.

I am assuming the Aces didn't get into Washington in time for the game.

I'll be surprised if Seattle doesn't try to run on Minnesota, and of course the Lynx will try to make it a half court game.

1)  Aces +8'  cancelled

2)  Dream -8' winner

3)  Lynx/Storm OVER 163