Monday W

After starting the season something like 15-3 I have now gone  5-9 the last four days....I fit right in with the W, which is quickly taking over from the CFL for the most crazy league.

Craziness rules, so let's get crazy.

I am making my own lines, I am not predicting what Vegas might have.

Sun       -2'   162    Dream  (I hate everything about the Sun this year)

Mercury -8    164    Wings  (Taurasi?)

Storm    -6    174    Sky   (lean OVER)

Vegas    -7    165    Fever (think Vegas crushes them as the scare Vegas had yesterday is a good thing)

Lynx      -5    160    Mystics

Sparks    -7   164.   Liberty (I am becoming a fan of the Liberty, even though watching Clarendon play is like going to the dentist)

Just a week or so ago, we were wondering if the Liberty and Sun would ever win.  Well, kudos to the Liberty, and to the woman with the best name in sports, Zahui B.  In the new world post players shoot threes and inspire their team to victories or close losses after being abysmal for the first 5 or 6 games.  Post defenders for the last 100 years of basketball have run down the court and set up in the lane expecting to have hand to hand combat with their opponent's post player in the trenches.  Then comes Zahui B, who never shows up in the lane, but instead  stops at  the three point line with her post defender not within 20 feet of her.  AND, it's not just great that she has the courage to take them, she was 6 for 9 from downtown yesterday.  She is the reincarnation of Downtown Freddie Brown, my second favorite name of a player all-time, after Zahui B.   Wished the Liberty could've gotten the win yesterday and they had the game at least into overtime when the timekeeper evidently didn't know the rules of when to start the clock,....game tying field at the buzzer negated, replay, and nothing on the replay, so the Liberty as 13+ point dogs go down by 2.  They could be a playoff team next year with one more good player and the development of I at the pointguard position.  Nurse is nothing special and they need to upgrade her and also find someone better than Stokes.

The Dream have the makings of a decent team, though they'd be better off with a new coach...they can't defend the pick and roll which is the most common play on a basketball court.   Basically in modern basketball, the main mantra should be under no circumstance should you let the other team get-catch-and- shoot open threes.  Yet in their last game it seemed like Dallas had 25 of them.  They insist on helping with penetration when all the analytics say that the most effective shot are open threes.  HEY COACH, teach your players to defend the three point line!!.  The coaches should also turn their point guard loose, like what the Liberty will do when their rookie comes back.

And the Mystics are all of a sudden falling apart....didn't see that coming either.  They are well coached, and they have gotten good shots, but nothing has gone in.  They are the one team where fatigue looks noticeable.  They aren't very good defensively and aren't very athletic.  It looks like the coach is wanting them to go to the basket, but until things get desperate, they all hang out around the perimeter.  They are a jump shooting team that doesn't play defense, which this year will equate to mediocrity without a go-to scorer that causes the defense to help out on her.  EDD, while not great last season, got her teammates   a ton of open looks, but there's no one worth doubling on the Mystics this season.   If I were coaching them I'd keep track of how many times each individual player took it to the basket per game and then I'd make them double it.

As Abe Lemons said, "there are two plays, Romeo and Juliet, and take it to the basket."

Basically I am using this query to make some of these plays.

tS(margin, N=4)>oS(margin, N=4) and F and game number<9 and tS(W, N=4)-oS(W, N=4) >0 

If we look at a team's last four games, in games before game 9, the team with the better scoring margin that won more games in their last four have been been poor favorites,...40-67 ATS,  and 7-19 ATS when both teams are off one day's rest, which favors all the underdogs tonight.

1)  Dream +5

Teams with a worse winning percentage that are favorites games 6-10 are 1-9 ATS.

2)  Wings +4

I would hope that Brian would have given up on Ndour as a starting player in the W, and gives Jefferson a very short lease,...those two should be sitting on the edge of the bench or out of the league.

3)  Sky +4

4)  Wings/Mercury OVER 165.5

Both of those teams had indicated OVERs last game and both teams went UNDER by quite a bit.  For me, I like to give a team a second chance when they fail in the first instance.

We'll see if I know what I am talking about, or if the WNBA is just too sexy for my shirt.

Was able to buy out of the Sky bet and get them at +4.5.

1)  Wings +4

2)  Sky +4'

3)  Dream +5

4)  Wings OVER 165'

Abe Lemon quote is priceless indigo. 

Could not stop laughing on that one 

good luck... except hat over we are on same sides.

Brutal 

Tnanks Buddy, good fortune today.

Forgot to mention that Skyler Diggins Smith is playing her old team today.  Players get up for that.  Agler must be tough to play for as both Liz and now Diggins Smith are out of Dallas and Liz said she wouldn't play for the Wings after Fred got fired, which basically was that she didn't want to play for Brian Agler.   Diggins Smith accidentally on purpose got pregnant for a year, which is basically saying that someone wants to avoid playing for a coach or an organization in the W.

I expect Diggins Smith to bring her A game tonight, or at least try to....she'll be hoisting, which should be good for the total.

I also expect Dallas to push the pace, as why would you want to be in a half court game when you have Griner sitting in the lane?  That usually is not in the M.O. of Adler, as two of three point guards are system, run the offense kind of  point guards, so we'll see.

Adding:

5) Storm OVER 170

Vandersloot sits down, and three turnovers later, the Sky go down another 6 points.

"You're not going to be able to sit her tonight against Seattle, Coach."

Pace is crazy, and Seattle has gotten the much easier buckets.  Very high quality teams and very good coaching.

I didn't watch the Dream game, but the game would've been over as soon as the Dream's point guard got hurt 3 minutes in.

18-33 at the quarter.

Looks like Seattle will score 100.  

Whitcomb is a much better player than Jewel Lloyd...white players that can shoot three pointers are vastly underrated in basketball and the Storm have the best 3 point shooter in the game, better than even Quigley is, and she gets 15 minutes/game.  I don't get it.

Jewel Lloyd and DeShields are twins sisters of a different mother.  They can't do anything but shoot, and even that they are average at it.  Their shot looks nice and they jump three feet off the ground to get it off, but they are largely ineffective players. 

I am outta here, good fortune the rest of the season, guys.

best o luck Indigo, I understand your choice (I took my lumps tonight betting Wash) but you are a valuable asset and hope you chime in when you are ready

take it easy