Posted:
#1
YTD: 8-2
Pending: Spain (Women's) to win a medal +137
Ok so this is what the men's looks like for tomorrow.
Lets face it, USA are going to win their side of the playoff tree and they have Argentina, France and Spain in the mix. Argentina can be put to the side, then you have France/Spain. If we were to bet either of these 2 teams, you are risky it on one game, the Bronze game. They won't make the final as they have to play the USA in the semis. The other playoff bracket is very interesting because you get a 2nd chance (like the womens bracket) with Australia, Serbia, Lithuania and Croatia if they get past the quarters and into the semis.
Team efficiencies after Group games: (only including the final 8 teams here, hence why they numbers are not in order but this is what they are ranked out of all 12 countries who made the Olympics.
1. USA 124.8
2. Australia 109.8
3. France 104
4. Spain 102.4
5. Serbia 100.6
7.Croatia 89
8. Lithuania 87.6
9. Argentina 87.2
USA/Argentina - winner plays either France/Spain
Australia/Lituania - winner plays either Croatia/Serbia.
Now, my books is offering the following odds to win a medal
Australia +101
Spain +101
Serbia +140
Croatia +260
Lithuania +260
France +400
Argentina +1400
Lets face it, USA are going to win their side of the playoff tree and they have Argentina, France and Spain in the mix. Argentina can be put to the side, then you have France/Spain. If we were to bet either of these 2 teams, you are risky it on one game, the Bronze game. They won't make the final as they have to play the USA in the semis. The other playoff bracket is very interesting because you get a 2nd chance (like the womens bracket) with Australia, Serbia, Lithuania and Croatia if they get past the quarters and into the semis.
Now the Aussies take on Lithuania and current line is -4.5
The Serbians take on Croatia and line is -5.5
In the group stage, Lithuania has good wins vs Brazil, Nigeria and Argentina. Argentina their biggest scalp.
Aussies had a great group stage only falling short to the USA team and winning the rest. France IMHO was their biggest win..
Croatia's biggest win during group stage was most likely Spain. As for Serbia, they were pretty poor and only won 2 against very weak teams in China and Venezuela. They played very well vs USA but poor against France and Australia. The biggest value for me is Australia at pretty much doubling your money. They are ranked 2nd in efficiency and their opponent tomorrow (Lithuania) ranks pretty low on efficiency as well as overall. The Serbians and Croatia are up there in efficienices but I think the Aussies boast too much talent not to win a medal and they are on the right side of the playoff tree. If they get past Lithuania in the quarters, they then face Serbia/Croatia. If they fail at the semi stage, they still get another chance to win Bronze vs either France/Spain. With the Aussies girls falling short today, I feel as though the Aussie Mens team will want to step up big time.
Will make a decision a little later on as I want to do more research into H2H matches between countries..
0
Australian to win a medal +100
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