Playoff future(s)

I've got these to win the title:

1)  Sun +2500

2)  Storm +1767

Just took the Dream +450 for two units.  I don't feel any of the other  teams besides those three  have a shot at it.  The Dream have made me feel uneasy about my other two futures, as the development of Breeland and Montgomery has more than negated the loss of Angel.  They will beat whoever they match up against in the semifinals whether it's the Mystics or someone else.

I put the Dream as equal favorites with the Storm,,,..I feel they are a better team, but they'd have to go into the Storm's building and get at least one on Seattle's home court, which they did during the regular season, but of course the playoffs are another matter entirrely.

The Sun?  Jonquel Jones is finally playing AND producing now that Ogwumike has been out and the Sun will probably deal either Ogwumike or Alyssa Thomas in the off-season to give Jones more minutes. They still do inexplicably dumb things and have given up numerous big leads in games they should have been laughing and celebrating in the last couple of minutes rather than hanging on for dear life, as what happened again against the Sparks yesterday.  They look like choke artists in this stage of their development.  How does that translate into a championship run when the teams are better and they have to finish games off, some of them in hostile environments?  They finished right about 500 winning percentage against winning teams this year.

And, playing Banham, well, just what are you seeing in her Coach?  She must light it up in practice, because in games she can't pass, make good decisions with the ball or defend and she doesn't shoot it well enough to make up for all of her other deficiencies.  The coach still doesn't know who to play at what time in the game and has blind spots about certain players.  Laney and Banham should never see the court, Striklen is starting (why?) and Tuck and Courtney Williams never get enough minutes...they never play Ogwumike, Jones and A. Thomas together, when in reality have Ogwumike down low would open it up for Jones at the 3 point line and give them a super-big defensive presence inside.

Despite all of the good metrics of the Sun, who rank second in offensive/defensive efficiency differential behind the Storm I put their chances of winning it all now at 10 to 1.

One very good fade in the NFL playoffs is to see who won the most games out of their last 6 and FADE that team in the playoffs.  If we run that for the WNBA playoffs....

tS(W, N=6)<oS(W, N=6) and playoffs=1 and game number  

You'll see that past history shows that this works very well in the first four games of the playoffs (38-25 ATS) and the last two (3-0).....everything in between it is very much a money loser going 7-20 ATS.

this returns the highest ROI

tS(W, N=6)<oS(W, N=6) and playoffs=1 and game number  and season >=2015

tS(W, N=6)<oS(W, N=6) and playoffs=1  and season >=2015 and game number <39

Second half season, 33-27 ATS

Play:

Wings +7' -114

Teams that lost greater  than 3 games more  than their opponent in their regular season have been 10-1 ATS as away dogs in the first game of the playoffs, covering by an average of 7.73 points/game and going 4-7 straight up losing by an average of -0.82 points/game.

So, past history tells us that the much worse  regular season teams bring it in the first (and to a lesser extent the second) playoff game.

It'll be interesting the match-up of the two bigs, whether they will guard each other, and if so, which will get into foul trouble.  Defense will be ramped up and also because the game is at a different venue than the one the Mercury played on in the regular season, the game possibly will be lower scoring than expected.  A unfamiliar court with different lighting negates somewhat the advantage that the home team should be enjoying.  The underdogs have come out swinging in the past and the pressure evidently has been felt by the superior team on their home court in past early round playoff games.

Good fortune.

Good fortune DB,....

Teams in the playoffs in the first two games as away dogs have been 14-6-3 ATS, IF they lost more games out of the past 6 than their present opponent.

The Lynx won 2 out of their past 6 (the Sparks won 3) and the Wings won 1 out of their past 6 (the Mercury won 4), which sets up the Lynx and the Wings being indicated plays.

If the teams we're interested in have won 2 or 1 of their past 6 games, the record of those teams is 5-0 ATS covering by 16.40 points/game, and winning straight up in all 5 of them, by an average of 11.80 points.

Plays:

1)  Wings +7' -114

2)  Lynx +5'

AD and playoffs = 1 and game number <37 and tS(W, N=6)