Sat/Sun W, August 4/5

I'll put out my lines of what I'd make them for Sunday's games, they'll differ from what Vegas puts out....I am not predicting what they'll be but making a line based on MY relative strength ratings,...when my lines have differed from Vegas' more than a couple of points this season, my lines estimations have won more than they've lost.  The bookmaker has to worry about balancing action/money and other things besides just estimating the strength of the teams.

Haven't heard from the league when they'll make up the Vegas/Washington game, you'd think they'd make an afternoon game tomorrow...we'll see.

Saturday

Vegas' line is already out

Liberty -6   Fever 160

Teams off the upset this year have been poor, but one of my commandments this year after a month or has been  to limit betting on the bottom 3 teams.....I would not contemplate betting either of these teams.

Sunday, August 5

Sun -6'   Aces    165 

Wings -1 Mystics 174

Sparks -6 Mercury 158

Lynx -6    Dream 156 

A ton of big games, everyone with playoff implications, the Lynx/Dream game is the most compelling for me and will be very physical, with lots of fouls and low shooting percentages.  They are the top two teams in the league in defensive efficiency ratings.  If the Lynx were to win that game along with beating the Storm (they're up 1 at half time), they could solidify a top 4 seed and put themselves in the mix for a top two seed.

I also would not be surprised if the Aces beat the Sun, as long as they don't play the on Saturday in the makeup game against the Mystics.

Toss this guy Mods.

Ignoramuses (or is it Ignorami?) abound and have invaded covers...will have to invent some ignoramus repellant....I'll make millions!

Early betonline lines have Connecticut -10.....the linemaker has been  on the Sun's jock(?)  since the beginning of the season and I fell off that wagon about a month ago.  Anything over +9 I'm on the Aces.

Also leaning to Dream and Dream UNDER.....I highly doubt that the winning score will go over 80 and the Dream has been the league's best team the past month.

That being said I'd love it if somehow the Sun snuck in to get the second seed and the Storm played the Sun in the finals.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."                                              Bertrand Russell

Plays:

1)  Sun +10

2)  Sparks/Mercury UNDER 162'

Correction: 

1)  Aces +10

2)  Sparks/Mercury UNDER 162'

thanks guys for the feedback. and DG you shoulda talked me out of my play!.....haha.

The Sun shot it better than any WNBA team I've ever seen....Alyssa Thomas sat for long stretches of time and they played Ogwumike and Jones together, maybe they've figured something out, we'll see.  Alyssa Thomas has been a net detriment to her team since returning from injury, maybe she gets 18 minutes/game going forward, if I'm coaching the Sun that is what I would be doing.  Perhaps they get into the top 4, they end up playing the Sparks and the Lynx their last two games of the year at home.

1)  Vegas +10 loser      Aces never in it as their guards couldn't guard anything today.  Kelsey Plum is destined to be a below average W player her whole career....all she can do is shot spot up threes and even at that she is average at best.  She can't get to the rim, can't shot off the dribble, can't play defense, can't distribute, doesn't make her team better whatsoever.

2)  UNDER Sparks/Mercury

3)  Dream +5'

This is the query I've used for the Dream...which is saying that a home non-conference favorite that won 20 games last year playing a team that won <16 games last year with a total of <161 has been 13-26 ATS (Lynx).

HF  and not C and PRSW > 20 and o:PRSW < 16 and total<161

2)  Dream +5'  winner   

Dream are  the best team in the WNBA....they looked good, very good.  If/when the time comes when they play the Storm in the playoffs I will be hedging my Storm championship futures play.

Meanwhile, the Sparks are trying to figure out how to blow their big lead against the Mercury,....Taurasi is out of the game, but LA fouls a three point shooter with 10 seconds left and comes off of their player to allow a wide open three in the last minute of play that gives Phoenix 6 points.

The Sparks hold on to win by 3...feeling bad for those that took the Sparks minus the points....you gotta a know that refs are going to call fouls on you if your team is ahead in the last two minutes.

3)  Sparks/Mercury UNDER 162' winner

Last month, 21-10 ATS.