Wednesday W

Rough night, went 1-2, and some others also had a tough time.  

Aces threw away their chance to still be in the playoff race, though when you are at a venue and decide not to play because you're tired, maybe it's karma that you're out of it.   What was the league supposed to do?....the next time someone missed a plane or someone's umbrella had a hole in it and some players caught a cold and they decided not to play, they could always say to the league, "well Vegas did it and you let them off."

They got out-scored 16-29 in the fourth and missed two out of four free throws in the last minute or so...I didn't watch but evidently Bill pulled his best player in the last two minutes of a 3 point game.  Weird.

The two finalists this year off a win, when not playing each other?

Lynx 5-9 ATS

Sparks 4-11 ATS 

Both teams will be in that situation the next two days on the road as favorites, though the Sparks are 3-1 as road favorites off a win this year....you can do the math, in any other situation this year they're 1-11 ATS off a win.  I will put down money that they don't cover both games back to back versus the Liberty and then the suddenly powerful Dream.

The BOL line in the Sun/Wings game is +4 to the Wings....I'll believe it when I see it that it opens at the rest of the books at 4.   The Sun will have to win their next two road games to have a shot at a top 4 seed, they end up with 4 straight home games after those two.  Should be an up and down game and the Wings didn't look appreciably worse with Diggins-Smith not playing, than her most recent four games that she was.  Perhaps she was carrying an injury and still playing because she looked nothing like her earlier season form.    The Wings coulda/shoulda/woulda won versus the Mystics @home last game, a comparable team to the Sun.  The reports I have now, a few minutes before the other books release their lines is that Diggins-Smith is questionable.

Plays:

1)  Liberty +9

They were in it 'til the last quarter against the best team in the league last game.  I think they stay in it the whole game as Coach Angler will have to rest Beard, Parker and Ogwumike some minutes  to have them ready versus the Dream.  The Sparks have played terribly after winning their previous game this season, and the books continue to over-rate them.  This is a heavy situational game, as much as I hate what has happened to the Liberty this year, in this situation it's a take for me.

2)  Wings/Sun OVER 171'   Dallas plays at a frenetic pace, which I don't agree with when you have the best Big in the league, but when are you coached by a former point guard, more than likely he's not going to make it a post-type team.  The best chance for the Sun will be to run, the more shots they get without Cambage clogging the lane, the better.  Should be  fast paced, which is what we want when playing an OVER...they'll have to make shots, obviously, but both teams have that capability and the Wings scored only 74 in their last game, which makes me like this game even more.  Would love it if Diggins-Smith played, but from the line, it looks like she won't be.

There's been 40 situations in the WNBA database where a team is playing the first game of a back-to-back road series, where they will be an away dog their second game.

In four of those games they won the game by >9 points.

In three of those games they won the game by 9 points exactly.

In thirty three games  the margin was less than 9 points.

play:

3)  Sparks/Liberty UNDER 156

p:W and A and playoffs = 0 and not C and total < 160 and tA(W) > .55  and month = 8 

Play:

4)  Sun  -2'

month = 8 and tA(W) > .55 and A and not C and playoffs = 0 and game number > 26 and total > 160 

3)  Liberty UNDER 156

2)  Liberty +9

1)  Sun OVER 171'

1)  Liberty +9 winner

2)  Liberty UNDER 156 loser   this one had a chance with the Liberty down 75-78 with under 20 seconds left, they get a stop and then throw the ball away, have to foul yadda, yadda, yadda.

Sun up huge at half, but the OVER is looking mighty shaky, as after a normal first quarter, the two teams combined for 30 points in the second quarter.

Now 23-14 ATS second half of the season.

3)  Sun/Wings OVER 171' winner    Sun suddenly looking like they could contend after taking a month's vacation in the middle of the season

4)  Sun -2' winner

3-1 today, 25-14 ATS second half of season