better team in PR I is 19-4 up to 2014 winning the series
better team by 2 pts or more is 15-2 winning the series
better by less then 1 pt is 4-4
PR II.....................
Seattle by 3.8 over Phoenix
Wash by .74 over Atlanta
better team is 17-7
over 2 pts better is 12-3 through 2014, have not updated since.
team better in both PR's by 2 or better is 11-0 ( Seattle over Phoenix)
teams better in PR I by 2 or better but under .75 in PR II , in this spot we have seen about 50% upsets in PR I team. teams in this spot may have weaknesses the other team could exploit.
Wash is 1.9 better not 2 and under .75 in PR II, indicating they may have a weakness Atlanta could exploit, but not sure I would use this with Angel out
And we did win our past most recent games in this spot so things may go the other way.
better team in PR I is 19-4 up to 2014 winning the series
better team by 2 pts or more is 15-2 winning the series
better by less then 1 pt is 4-4
PR II.....................
Seattle by 3.8 over Phoenix
Wash by .74 over Atlanta
better team is 17-7
over 2 pts better is 12-3 through 2014, have not updated since.
team better in both PR's by 2 or better is 11-0 ( Seattle over Phoenix)
teams better in PR I by 2 or better but under .75 in PR II , in this spot we have seen about 50% upsets in PR I team. teams in this spot may have weaknesses the other team could exploit.
Wash is 1.9 better not 2 and under .75 in PR II, indicating they may have a weakness Atlanta could exploit, but not sure I would use this with Angel out
And we did win our past most recent games in this spot so things may go the other way.
Phoenix off 3 ATS wins, not the best spot for them and now we see the line drop which puts my line having a lean to Seattle.
If the line drops to 4.5 we will take action on Seattle.
Wash off 2 ATS wins with a big blowout win, not a good spot for Wash, and it is very difficult to beat a good team twice on their home court but without Angel we don't really know how good Atlanta is.
LEAN --- Seattle -5 over Phoenix
LEAN --- Atlanta +2 over Wash.
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MY LINES.................game 2
Seattle -6.25 over Phoenix
Atlanta -1.1 over Wash
Phoenix off 3 ATS wins, not the best spot for them and now we see the line drop which puts my line having a lean to Seattle.
If the line drops to 4.5 we will take action on Seattle.
Wash off 2 ATS wins with a big blowout win, not a good spot for Wash, and it is very difficult to beat a good team twice on their home court but without Angel we don't really know how good Atlanta is.
Phoenix down 0-2 going home usually is a great spot but not sure here, with Seattle off 2 ATS losses and most likely they will end playoffs with a winning spread record as most of our no.1 ranked teams do , can see Seattle covering game 3.
Let's wait-out the line, I suspect the line gets shaded to Phoenix in game 3
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LEANS .... 1-1 ATS
Phoenix now off 4 ATS wins with Seattle 0-2 ATS.
Phoenix down 0-2 going home usually is a great spot but not sure here, with Seattle off 2 ATS losses and most likely they will end playoffs with a winning spread record as most of our no.1 ranked teams do , can see Seattle covering game 3.
Let's wait-out the line, I suspect the line gets shaded to Phoenix in game 3
MY LINES .....................................game 3
Seattle -.25 over Phoenix
we have a play with a 2.5 diff which we have if the line stays at +3 or better.
Phoenix off 5 ATS wins and a 20 pt win and now the line gets jack-up , with Seattle off 3 ATS losses and a SU loss with a line diff of 2.5 pts , really , really, really great spot for Seattle. We'll up our play on Seattle if line stays +3 or higher.
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0-1, lost 2.2 units
MY LINES .....................................game 3
Seattle -.25 over Phoenix
we have a play with a 2.5 diff which we have if the line stays at +3 or better.
Phoenix off 5 ATS wins and a 20 pt win and now the line gets jack-up , with Seattle off 3 ATS losses and a SU loss with a line diff of 2.5 pts , really , really, really great spot for Seattle. We'll up our play on Seattle if line stays +3 or higher.
Well , we pick-up the win on Seattle as the line did stay at +3 from what I can tell.
That was a really great spot for Seattle. And our first play with a 2.5 pt diff from my line to closing line.
Unforetunately I was out and did not make it back to post, happens every now and again but as I've said many times in past when we make a play with line at a number and it stays at the number or better we will have a play regardless if I make it back to post.
That was a really great spot on our no. 1 ranked team with a line of +3 or better.
Made it back home with a score of Seattle 39 - Phoenix 29, and then fell asleep in 3rd quarter and missed the rest of game waking up when they announced the final score.
Brutal loss for Seattle but you have to hand it to Phoenix for showing tremendous championship calibre determination and grit.
Sue Bird going out did not help.
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Well , we pick-up the win on Seattle as the line did stay at +3 from what I can tell.
That was a really great spot for Seattle. And our first play with a 2.5 pt diff from my line to closing line.
Unforetunately I was out and did not make it back to post, happens every now and again but as I've said many times in past when we make a play with line at a number and it stays at the number or better we will have a play regardless if I make it back to post.
That was a really great spot on our no. 1 ranked team with a line of +3 or better.
Made it back home with a score of Seattle 39 - Phoenix 29, and then fell asleep in 3rd quarter and missed the rest of game waking up when they announced the final score.
Brutal loss for Seattle but you have to hand it to Phoenix for showing tremendous championship calibre determination and grit.
Not surprised to see Wash win with EDD back, would look for Wash to win game 5 .
The 2 games Atlanta won was game EDD missed and the game she got knocked-out of.
If we look at player effeciency ratings EDD is by far the best player on either team with the 2cd best being on Wash as well, so 2 players better then Atlanta's best player and the 3rd best player on Wash is better then the 2cd best on Atlanta.
So Wash has 3 of top 4 players according to PER. Angel would of been 2cd best on Atlanta by a small amount but clearly better then Wash 3rd best player.
Without Angel and EDD back would side with Wash winning game 5.
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Not surprised to see Wash win with EDD back, would look for Wash to win game 5 .
The 2 games Atlanta won was game EDD missed and the game she got knocked-out of.
If we look at player effeciency ratings EDD is by far the best player on either team with the 2cd best being on Wash as well, so 2 players better then Atlanta's best player and the 3rd best player on Wash is better then the 2cd best on Atlanta.
So Wash has 3 of top 4 players according to PER. Angel would of been 2cd best on Atlanta by a small amount but clearly better then Wash 3rd best player.
Without Angel and EDD back would side with Wash winning game 5.
We did it again, Seattle rolls into the finals and gets the cover as well in another very good spot for us !!
Seattle dominated the area where Phoenix was weakest, rebounding 40-29.
Phoenix did win the FG% battle by just a very small amount but Seattle easily won 3 pt shooting and FT's with TO even and dominated Phoenix on the boards.
And we did hit our lean on Wash as well.
We have now had 19 of our last 22 favorites to win the title make the championship game, 86.4%.
And of the previous 18 to make the final 14 won the title.
Wash has no common denominators of past champs, Seattle has across the board all the common denominators of past champs. And dominate over Wash in the most important areas.
I don't see this going to 5 games, 4 max , maybe it is over in 3,.
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We did it again, Seattle rolls into the finals and gets the cover as well in another very good spot for us !!
Seattle dominated the area where Phoenix was weakest, rebounding 40-29.
Phoenix did win the FG% battle by just a very small amount but Seattle easily won 3 pt shooting and FT's with TO even and dominated Phoenix on the boards.
And we did hit our lean on Wash as well.
We have now had 19 of our last 22 favorites to win the title make the championship game, 86.4%.
And of the previous 18 to make the final 14 won the title.
Wash has no common denominators of past champs, Seattle has across the board all the common denominators of past champs. And dominate over Wash in the most important areas.
I don't see this going to 5 games, 4 max , maybe it is over in 3,.
We backed Seattle in 3 straight very strong spots and Seattle cashed all 3 for us and now they are back to .500 ATS in the playoffs.
Game 2 Seattle off 3 ATS wins, not the best spot to back them but with a -5 line we do have a 2.5 diff to my lines which is 2-0 ATS and has a very good record backing no. 1 ranked teams .
If line stays -5.5 or less we may lower our play and back Seattle again. To back Seattle game 2 we need at least a 2.5 diff or we pass.
MY LINES................................game 2
Seattle -8.17 over Wash
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Seattle rolls to the game 1 win and cover.
We backed Seattle in 3 straight very strong spots and Seattle cashed all 3 for us and now they are back to .500 ATS in the playoffs.
Game 2 Seattle off 3 ATS wins, not the best spot to back them but with a -5 line we do have a 2.5 diff to my lines which is 2-0 ATS and has a very good record backing no. 1 ranked teams .
If line stays -5.5 or less we may lower our play and back Seattle again. To back Seattle game 2 we need at least a 2.5 diff or we pass.
Wash is not in the same class as Phoenix, this is the spot you'd expect the team down 0-2 and back at home to win if they were going to win a game, Phoenix did it but we lean Seattle here in game 3.
Phoenix out-shot opps by 3.51% which is well above championship level while Wash out-shot opps by 2.31% which is below championship level and far below Seattle's league leading 4.44 % when we factor-in 2 pt shots, 3 pt shots, FT and TO.
Seattle will likely learn from that game 3 and bring more intensidy to this game and being the far superior team will likely pickup the win .
LEAN --- Seattle +3.5 over Wash
we may take some small action if line stays at 3.5 or above , for now we lean Seattle, leans are 2-1 ATS.
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MY LINES ............................game 3
Seattle -2.17 over Wash
Wash is not in the same class as Phoenix, this is the spot you'd expect the team down 0-2 and back at home to win if they were going to win a game, Phoenix did it but we lean Seattle here in game 3.
Phoenix out-shot opps by 3.51% which is well above championship level while Wash out-shot opps by 2.31% which is below championship level and far below Seattle's league leading 4.44 % when we factor-in 2 pt shots, 3 pt shots, FT and TO.
Seattle will likely learn from that game 3 and bring more intensidy to this game and being the far superior team will likely pickup the win .
LEAN --- Seattle +3.5 over Wash
we may take some small action if line stays at 3.5 or above , for now we lean Seattle, leans are 2-1 ATS.
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