I'm not going to ignore the fact that this team is playing great ball right now going 8-1 S/U at home and all games won at home have been by 10 points or more. The Mercury are basically the Lynx of last season at home. With a point differential of +15 at home and playing a tired Mystics team who are playing their 4th roadie and have been on the road for over 9 days, I think Mercury can win this and win big.
Yes the Mystics are playing well against Shock and Sky but when they play teams above the 500%, they don't do so well
@ Dream: Mystics lost by 13
vs Stars: Lost by 8 @ Stars: Won by 11
@ Lyns: Lost by 10
@ Dream: Lost by 10
vs Dream: Lost by 8
vs Mercury: Lost by 15
So due to this and believing that the Mercury want to finish strong before the break (this game and then the Sun in their last game before ASG), I think they roll in this game by at least 15.
BOL
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Mystics @ Mercury: Mercury -10
I'm not going to ignore the fact that this team is playing great ball right now going 8-1 S/U at home and all games won at home have been by 10 points or more. The Mercury are basically the Lynx of last season at home. With a point differential of +15 at home and playing a tired Mystics team who are playing their 4th roadie and have been on the road for over 9 days, I think Mercury can win this and win big.
Yes the Mystics are playing well against Shock and Sky but when they play teams above the 500%, they don't do so well
@ Dream: Mystics lost by 13
vs Stars: Lost by 8 @ Stars: Won by 11
@ Lyns: Lost by 10
@ Dream: Lost by 10
vs Dream: Lost by 8
vs Mercury: Lost by 15
So due to this and believing that the Mercury want to finish strong before the break (this game and then the Sun in their last game before ASG), I think they roll in this game by at least 15.
My play is Sparks -2 @ Fever. Fever has not looked impressive even with their win vs Sun recently. The oddsmakers making Sparks a 2 point fav on the road during their long road trip suggest that they know Sparks are hot right now. If you look at how they been doing on their roady so far, they have had an opportunity be at a 5 game win streak. Their two recent losses were against an on fire Mercury team and hot Lynx team, both of which they played well enough to win. Now that they are playing lesser competition and will be on national TV, Candice Parker and go will show a not as talented Indy team whats up.
BOL to all
GL PMP.
I am so undecided in this game I am staying away but your definitely right about the Sparks rolling on the road. They did the exact same thing last season. They sucked on the road last season in June but as soon as July comes along, they went on a 4 or 5 game win road trip. This could be the exact same thing in this roadie.
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Quote Originally Posted by Pardonmyparlay:
My play is Sparks -2 @ Fever. Fever has not looked impressive even with their win vs Sun recently. The oddsmakers making Sparks a 2 point fav on the road during their long road trip suggest that they know Sparks are hot right now. If you look at how they been doing on their roady so far, they have had an opportunity be at a 5 game win streak. Their two recent losses were against an on fire Mercury team and hot Lynx team, both of which they played well enough to win. Now that they are playing lesser competition and will be on national TV, Candice Parker and go will show a not as talented Indy team whats up.
BOL to all
GL PMP.
I am so undecided in this game I am staying away but your definitely right about the Sparks rolling on the road. They did the exact same thing last season. They sucked on the road last season in June but as soon as July comes along, they went on a 4 or 5 game win road trip. This could be the exact same thing in this roadie.
At first glance I liked Storm but than Wagers reminded me that Stricklen is out and then Taxman reminded me that the Storm are coming off a road trip. Its great that we talk and bring insight into the thread because those little things all help us make our plays, win or lose we are all just trying to beat the bookies.
This season so far, when playing 3 or more games on the road and then returning home, the Storm are 0-2 ATS but 1-1 S/U in their first game at home. Small data sample but I still think the Sun can cover and possibly win S/U. They beat Shock 62-60 after a 5 game roadie and then lost to the Stars 87-82 after a 4 game roadie. With both teams desperate for a win, I do believe that this game will remain very close throughout and will take the extra points.
BOL
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Sun @ Storm: Sun +4
At first glance I liked Storm but than Wagers reminded me that Stricklen is out and then Taxman reminded me that the Storm are coming off a road trip. Its great that we talk and bring insight into the thread because those little things all help us make our plays, win or lose we are all just trying to beat the bookies.
This season so far, when playing 3 or more games on the road and then returning home, the Storm are 0-2 ATS but 1-1 S/U in their first game at home. Small data sample but I still think the Sun can cover and possibly win S/U. They beat Shock 62-60 after a 5 game roadie and then lost to the Stars 87-82 after a 4 game roadie. With both teams desperate for a win, I do believe that this game will remain very close throughout and will take the extra points.
So the only real concern I have is the points in the paint the Sun allow but in saying that though, the Storm are the worst team in the league for scoring in the paint. Other than that, the Sun are higher ranked than the Storm and also I think with Ogwumike having a stellar season so far, the Storm might find it hard with her. The other factor is that even though the Storm's bench average 23 a game, Stricklen is a contributor towards that stat averaging around 7. She has not been ruled out of this game but donbest is currently stating that she is "not expected to play against the Sun". As Axion said, she banged her head pretty badly against the Lynx and I don't think they will risk her in this game.
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Also wanted to add this about Sun @ Storm
OFFENSIVE STATS
Points per 100 possessions
Storm: 95.87
Sun: 95.82
Points of T/O's
Storm: 13.35 (ranked 11th)
Sun: 16.18 (ranked 5th)
Points in the paint
Storm: 27.57 (ranked 12th)
Sun: 36.18 (ranked 4th).
2nd chance points
Storm: 7.57 (ranked 12th)
Sun: 14.18 (ranked 2nd)
Fast break points
Storm: 6.26 (11th)
Sun: 9.36 (7th)
Bench scoring
Storm: 23.13 (4th)
Sun: 17.09 (17.09)
DEFENSIVE STATS
Points allowed per 100 possession
Storm: 101.12 (ranked 10th)
Sun: 99.53 (ranked 7th)
Points of T/O's
Storm: 16.96 (10th)
Sun: 15.45 (5th)
Points in the paint
Storm: 33.74 (6th)
Sun: 38.27 (12th)
2nd chance points
Storm: 9.96 (1st)
Sun: 12.23 (10th)
Fast break points
Storm: 7.96 (2nd)
Sun: 8.45 (6th)
So the only real concern I have is the points in the paint the Sun allow but in saying that though, the Storm are the worst team in the league for scoring in the paint. Other than that, the Sun are higher ranked than the Storm and also I think with Ogwumike having a stellar season so far, the Storm might find it hard with her. The other factor is that even though the Storm's bench average 23 a game, Stricklen is a contributor towards that stat averaging around 7. She has not been ruled out of this game but donbest is currently stating that she is "not expected to play against the Sun". As Axion said, she banged her head pretty badly against the Lynx and I don't think they will risk her in this game.
Sparks has like the second best lineup behind Mercury...
I agree with you then Emir. Right now they do with Wiggins and Tolliver back in the squad but once the Lynx get Augustus and Brunson back, they will be tough to handle but right now the Sparks are playing very good b'ball.
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Quote Originally Posted by emir2012:
Sparks has like the second best lineup behind Mercury...
I agree with you then Emir. Right now they do with Wiggins and Tolliver back in the squad but once the Lynx get Augustus and Brunson back, they will be tough to handle but right now the Sparks are playing very good b'ball.
BOL to you on your Suns play. In WNBA, it really does look like revenge factor plays a huge role. Storm has been very inconsistent team to call. They don't go streaking or super losing. I will chill on this game and wait for the Sparks.
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BOL to you on your Suns play. In WNBA, it really does look like revenge factor plays a huge role. Storm has been very inconsistent team to call. They don't go streaking or super losing. I will chill on this game and wait for the Sparks.
argh could be a bad way to start for me but I can't see Sea after playing the likes of Minn thrice in last 2 weeks and LA, Chi and Phx having any trouble holding Conn down, Sea was embarrassed on prime time @ Minn now come home in their last game before the all star break and only have to lock down on Ogwumike and see if Conn jumps shooters will beat them, last time LA was on prime time and lost @ Minn they went to NY and won 68-54, I'm hoping for a similar script here as Coach Agler should tighten down on D as he really has no bench and get into the break with a nice solid under
under 71.5 1H 3 bags
under 144.5 5 bags
All Out
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argh could be a bad way to start for me but I can't see Sea after playing the likes of Minn thrice in last 2 weeks and LA, Chi and Phx having any trouble holding Conn down, Sea was embarrassed on prime time @ Minn now come home in their last game before the all star break and only have to lock down on Ogwumike and see if Conn jumps shooters will beat them, last time LA was on prime time and lost @ Minn they went to NY and won 68-54, I'm hoping for a similar script here as Coach Agler should tighten down on D as he really has no bench and get into the break with a nice solid under
wolf that's a tough question, I am struggling just a bit lately so would not be surprised if they go over but I have 8 bags/units whatever on the under which for me is a medium play, if you are putting 3% of your bankroll I'd say go for it, if you are risking something crazy like 15% then I'd pass unless you are like me and a gamblerSea tend to go into the break on a solid under so who knows
All Out
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wolf that's a tough question, I am struggling just a bit lately so would not be surprised if they go over but I have 8 bags/units whatever on the under which for me is a medium play, if you are putting 3% of your bankroll I'd say go for it, if you are risking something crazy like 15% then I'd pass unless you are like me and a gamblerSea tend to go into the break on a solid under so who knows
I'm practically stuck because I got the over 143.5 an hour ago and now line drops to 142.5. I was hoping to buy it at 144.5 for equal juice and hope for a middle. I just now pray that the line goes up 1 point so I can buy a middle. This total is freaking me out!!
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I'm practically stuck because I got the over 143.5 an hour ago and now line drops to 142.5. I was hoping to buy it at 144.5 for equal juice and hope for a middle. I just now pray that the line goes up 1 point so I can buy a middle. This total is freaking me out!!
Great energy in Seattle, the place is packed with kids as I expected. Still early, but the Storm are in a bit of pickle in the paint: the Sun are just bigger.
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Great energy in Seattle, the place is packed with kids as I expected. Still early, but the Storm are in a bit of pickle in the paint: the Sun are just bigger.
Wow, 1H went under. Wowsa, that was just torture by the Storm. I am sure those kids will not be wanting to go to any WNBA games any time soon. Blown layups, Sue Bird not dribbling over the halfcourt in time, things like that. The tag team of Tamika and Tanisha playing as bad as one can imagine. Hmm. Just a smal lean on o19 Sea TT 3Q and o35.5 3Q.
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Wow, 1H went under. Wowsa, that was just torture by the Storm. I am sure those kids will not be wanting to go to any WNBA games any time soon. Blown layups, Sue Bird not dribbling over the halfcourt in time, things like that. The tag team of Tamika and Tanisha playing as bad as one can imagine. Hmm. Just a smal lean on o19 Sea TT 3Q and o35.5 3Q.
At least o142.5 hits. 1-1 on FG leans. I should have stayed away from Sea ATS after I saw a few good cappers on Conn today, live and learn. I only lost 0.5u or so on this game, not a bad outcome considering f.cking Aigler waived the white flag midway through the 3Q. Sue Bird did not play after about 5mins into the 3Q, and she is only their best pure shooter. As I expected, Lil' Sis played well today, let's see if her elder sis will play as well for the Sparks.
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At least o142.5 hits. 1-1 on FG leans. I should have stayed away from Sea ATS after I saw a few good cappers on Conn today, live and learn. I only lost 0.5u or so on this game, not a bad outcome considering f.cking Aigler waived the white flag midway through the 3Q. Sue Bird did not play after about 5mins into the 3Q, and she is only their best pure shooter. As I expected, Lil' Sis played well today, let's see if her elder sis will play as well for the Sparks.
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