Open Championship 2024 Picks & Odds: Predicting How the Favorites Will Finish

Royal Troon plays host to the 152 Open Championship and it’s a loaded field at the top of the British Open odds, headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, 2014 winner Rory McIlroy, emerging star Ludvig Aberg, and reigning PGA Champion Xander Schauffele.

Here's a four-pack of British Open picks for the favorites in the final major championship of the season.

Scottie Scheffler best bet 

The last time Scottie Scheffler missed a cut was at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in August 2022, and he’s played the weekend in nine consecutive majors. I’m anticipating the World No. 1 playing all 72 holes, and with par historically a great score at Royal Troon, this total of 44.5 looks a touch low.

Scheffler paces the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance and bogey average, while also ranking first in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and true strokes gained approach across his past 52 measured rounds in addition to ranking third in true strokes gained around-the-green. I also value him ranking 24th in driving accuracy during the same stretch.

With birdies likely few and far between at Troon, look for a lot of tap-in pars from the World No. 1 this week.

Best bet: Scottie Scheffler Over 44.5 tournament pars (-125 at bet365)

Rory McIlroy best bet 

This is an outlier +145 bet365 price, with FanDuel hanging -140 odds that McIlroy will finish inside the Top 20 following Round 1. It’s a huge difference, with the +145 odds offering a positive expected value of 40% compared to the -140 number.

Of course, Rory checks the necessary boxes to succeed and start hot in the opening round. He’s third in adjusted scoring average and fourth in first-round scoring average on Tour this season, and his game is dialed in across the board.

The Northern Irishman has six consecutive Top-15 finishes, including a win at the Wells Fargo, a solo second at the U.S. Open, and a T4 at the Scottish Open last week. He also ranks third in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 13th in true strokes gained putting in this field during the heater.

Best bet: Rory McIlroy Top 20 After Round 1 (+145 at bet365)

Ludvig Aberg best bet

Royal Troon will play as a Par 71 this week and Ludvig Aberg enters The Open ranking sixth in adjusted scoring average and seventh in Round 1 scoring on Tour this season. He’s also fired sub-70 opening rounds in each of his past four events while gaining true strokes across the board and ranking 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach in this field.

Closing out tournaments has been tougher for the Swede with his Round 4 scoring average (70.8) well below his 68.73 opening-round average. He’s positioned himself well early and I expect him to have a strong opening round again this week.

Best bet: Ludvig Aberg Under 70.5 Round 1 score (+120 at bet365)

Xander Schauffele best bet 

I have big expectations for Rory this week and see Xander Schauffele in the beginning stages of trending in the opposite direction after already peaking with his win at the PGA Championship in May. These are obviously elite players, but Xander has a tendency to go wayward off the tee and that brings big numbers into play at Royal Troon. He ranks 70th in this field in driving accuracy across his past six events.

And while he's been solid at The Open across six trips, his T2 in 2018 was his lone Top 10. Rory has a T6 and a solo third the past two years and he also finished T5 at Troon in 2016. The Northern Irishman has also been slightly better in true strokes gained tee-to-green during his current six-event heater that includes the noted win at the Wells Fargo, the solo second at Pinehurst, and the T4 last week.

Best bet: Rory McIlroy over Xander Schauffele (-125 at Caesars)

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