Storied Royal Troon will play host to the 152nd Open Championship and former World No.1 Jon Rahm is carrying longer British Open odds than he should be leading into the season's final major championship. This is an early week buying opportunity with the two-time major champion trading as long as +2,500 through FanDuel.
I break down his chances in our British Open picks below.
Jon Rahm to win outright (+2,500)
There’s absolutely no way to sugarcoat Jon Rahm’s disappointing run in majors this year. He struggled to defend his 2023 win at the Masters with a T45 before missing the cut at the PGA Championship, and then he had to opt out of the U.S. Open because of a toe infection.
It’s great news for bettors because we’re now landing far too long of a number for an elite player coming off consecutive Top 10s on the LIV Golf circuit, and he also finished T2 at The Open a season ago. Plus, he has a T3 finish in the 2021 Open and a pair of major championship wins on his resume.
Additionally, while his T59 showing in the 2016 Open at Royal Troon certainly doesn’t stand out at first glance, it was the then 21-year-old Rahm’s first Open. Playing all four rounds will serve him well this time around and Rory McIlroy is the only player with shorter odds than Rahm who made the cut here in 2016.
While I’d love to see a more detailed statistical breakdown of Rahm’s game, it’s hard to argue with what’s available. He's carded a Top 10 finish in every LIV event he’s finished and paces the tour in birdie average and greens-in-regulation percentage. Rahm was also leading the circuit in total strokes gained and strokes gained off-the-tee leading into last week’s LIV Andalucia event.
Also, if we rewind a year, Rahm was trading at half these +2,500 FanDuel odds ahead of The Open. We’re obviously landing the longer number because of two poor major showings, and the 29-year-old Spaniard should be trading as a second-tier favorite in the +1,200 to +1,400 range.
Finally, this is also a buying opportunity for Rahm in other markets because of the inflated odds, and I also like backing him for a Top 20 finish at +125 through bet365.
Pick: Jon Rahm to win outright (+2,500 at FanDuel)
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