World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the British Open odds this week at Royal Troon, as the best of the best compete in the 152nd Open Championship
There are all kinds of prop markets available for the final major of the season, and here are three of my favorite British Open golf picks featuring Rory McIlroy, Robert MacIntyre, and Corey Conners.
2024 Open Championship prop picks
- Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler (+130 at Caesars)
- Top Scot: Robert MacIntyre (-140 at DraftKings)
- Corey Conners Top 40 (-105 at bet365)
Picks made on 7-16 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Best British Open bonuses
New Users
Get a no-sweat first bet
Up to $1,500! Claim Now
New Users
Get up to $1,000 in bonus bets
If your first bet loses! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
2024 Open Championship prop picks
Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler (+130)
There are no statistical shortcomings in Scheffler’s game or cold stretches in his results dating back to last season. He’s been the best player on the planet, is the rightful betting favorite, and I anticipate him being in contention and playing well again this week at Royal Troon. It’s just that his best golf of this season could be behind us, and McIlroy is also on a heater of his own and has a sterling Open Championship track record, including finishing T5 in 2016 at this track.
These odds are giving McIlroy an implied probability of just 43.5% to beat Scheffler, and I think it’s much closer to a coin flip. After all, McIlroy has six consecutive Top 15 finishes, including his win at the Wells Fargo, solo second at the U.S. Open, and T4 last week in the Genesis Scottish Open. He’s third in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 13th in true strokes gained putting during the run.
Pick: Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler (+130 at Caesars)
Top Scot: Robert MacIntyre (-140)
An immediate draw to this prop is MacIntyre finishing as the top Scot is trading at -220 through bet365, so we’re landing a sizable edge by placing this wager at DraftKings. The difference in the two prices checks out as a positive expected value of 18%.
Of course, MacIntyre is also the best of the four Scots in the field with a pair of PGA Tour wins already this season after taking down the Genesis last week. He’s also never missed the cut in an Open Championship.
Countrymen Ewen Ferguson has the next shortest odds, but he didn’t make the cut last week in the Genesis or play the weekend in his only major championship last year in The Open. The other two Scots, Calum Scott and Jack McDonald, will be playing in a major for the first time. Scott is still an amateur at Texas A&M, and McDonald isn’t turning heads on the Challenge Tour this season with a missed cut in seven of 12 events.
Pick: Robert MacIntyre Top Scot (-140 at DraftKings)
Corey Conners Top 40 (-105)
This is another bet where shopping for the best price presents an excellent edge. Conners is priced as short as -154 to finish Top 40 through Caesars, so there’s a positive expected value of 18% attached to the -105 number at bet365.
I’ve been consistently targeting Conners recently because his game is clicking on all cylinders, and he’s rolled off seven consecutive Top-40 finishes. The Canadian has gained true strokes across the board during the consistent run, and he ranks 10th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green. He also gained true strokes on the green last week during his T10 at the Genesis. Putting has been a shortcoming for Conners off and on throughout his career, so it’s encouraging to see more putts falling.
Finally, Conners has improved in each major this season with a T9 at the U.S. Open preceded by a T26 in the PGA Championship and T38 in the Masters.
Pick: Corey Conners Top 40 (-105 at bet365)
