The Houston Open odds are headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and FedEx Cup points leader Rory McIlroy, so there are a number of quality players with long prices further down the board to target this week.
Memorial Park Golf Course will host this event for the fifth consecutive year, and my top sleeper and longshot golf picks have you covered for the action in the Lone Star State.
Houston Open sleeper picks
- Smalley to win outright (+6000 at bet365)
- Taylor to win outright (+9000 at bet365)
- Dunlap to win outright (+15000 at FanDuel)
Picks were made on 3-24 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Houston Open sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Alex Smalley
+6000 at bet365
Even with his missed cut at the Valspar, the arrow continues to point straight up for Alex Smalley. He has six Top 25s through eight events this season, and he’s gained true strokes across the board while ranking ninth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Add ranking third in adjusted scoring average to 11th in both bogey avoidance and scrambling percentage, and a well-rounded statistical profile backs up the solid finishes.
And while Smalley missed the cut in this event last year, he gained true strokes across the board during his T4 in 2023 and T15 in 2022. So, Memorial Park is also a track he’s had past success and contended at.
Sleeper pick to win: Nick Taylor
+9000 at bet365
Before missing the cut at THE PLAYERS, Nick Taylor played the weekend in six consecutive events while pacing this field in true strokes gained on approach and ranking fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green. He picked up his fifth PGA Tour victory at the Sony to kick-start the run, and this will be his third competitive trip to Memorial Park.
Taylor missed the cut in this event in 2023 and finished a ho-hum T41 in his 2022 debut. Still, missing the cut at TPC Sawgrass while playing in the more difficult wave and underwhelming history at Memorial Park doesn’t justify the Canadian being priced this far down the board — especially considering his well-rounded game.
Taylor has gained true strokes across the board while ranking 16th in scoring average and 10th in bogey avoidance this season, after all.
Sleeper pick to win: Nick Dunlap
+15000 at FanDuel
The two-time PGA Tour winner has missed consecutive cuts, so we’re landing a long number considering he finished T11 while gaining true strokes across the board in this event last year.
Obviously, it would be nice to see better current form, but in addition to winning twice last season, Nick Dunlap is a U.S. Amateur and U.S. Jr. Amateur Champion and has carded a T17 at The Genesis and T10 at the Sony already this season.
There aren’t many players in Dunlap's price range with his resume, and the 21-year-old phenom is 100% capable of flipping the switch and taking a run at a third PGA Tour victory.
