LIV Golf Hong Kong Picks and Odds: Niemann Trending Up After Adelaide Victory

The LIV Golf season moves to Hong Kong Golf Club this weekend following Joaquin Niemann's win in Adelaide three weeks ago. 

See where Niemann stands relative to Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau in our LIV Golf Hong Kong odds below.

LIV Golf Hong Kong odds

Player
Jon Rahm	+550	+600
Joaquin Niemann	+750	+750
Tyrrell Hatton	+800	+950
Bryson DeChambeau	+900	+1200
Cameron Smith	+1600	+1500
Sergio Garcia	+2000	+2400
David Puig	+2000	+2200
Abraham Ancer	+2000	+2200
Brooks Koepka	+2000	+2000
Dean Burmester	+2500	+2700
Paul Casey	+2800	+3500
Marc Leishman	+2800	+3200

Odds as of 3-4. 

LIV Golf Hong Kong picks and predictions

Outright pick: Bryson DeChambeau
+1200 at bet365

There’s often a narrative that short tracks don’t give bombers the same advantage as longer courses, but I don’t fully buy into it because short courses allow big hitters to club down and/or hit to preferred numbers with more ease.

In the case of Bryson DeChambeau, I’m certainly not concerned because he finished T6 and just two shots off the lead in this event last year. He’s also closed with +800 and +900 odds to win the first two LIV Golf events this season, so this longer price available through bet365 immediately caught my attention.

Plus, he shows off a well-rounded game that travels, and ranks fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and sixth in true strokes gained putting dating back to the beginning of the 2024 LIV Golf season.

Finishing position pick: Dustin Johnson Top 20
+130 at DraftKings

There might not be much to be encouraged about with Dustin Johnson given his limited play outside of the LIV Golf circuit and T44-T31 lull to start the season, but this is a long number given his resume. 

Additionally, Johnson fired a final-round 63 to tie the Sunday low here last year, and he gained true strokes on the field both off-the-tee and on approach in Adelaide. 

Finally, I also value the +130 DraftKings odds because there’s an attached positive expected value of 18% compared to the -105 bet365 price that Johnson finishes Top 20 this week.

Nationality prop pick: Anirban Lahiri Top Asian
-130 at bet365

It’s tough to knock a T12-T7 start to the season from Anirban Lahiri, and he only needs to top Yubin Jang and Chieh-Po Lee to finish as the low Asian in Hong Kong this week. Yang and Lee have underwhelmed in their first two events, and Lahri was the only one to gain true strokes across the board.

Particularly, I value Lahiri finishing ninth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and seventh in driving accuracy in the LIV Adelaide event.

For further perspective, you can also land Lahiri at -130 to finish Top 20, which means beating 34 other players, so I prefer targeting him in this three-player market.

LIV Golf Hong Kong field and favorites

Jon Rahm has kicked off his 2025 LIV season with a T2 in Riyadh and a sixth-place finish in Adelaide. As such, he's the betting favorite for this week's Hong Kong event, listed between +550 and +600 after finishing T8 here a year ago.

Joaquin Niemann is up into the No. 2 spot at +750 after winning in Adelaide and finishing T4 in Hong Kong last season. Tyrrell Hatton is third after T6 and T23 finishes to start the season; he has won as recently as the Dubai Desert Classic in January (DP World Tour). 

Major champions Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith round out the Top 5 at 12/1 and 15/1, respectively. Smith has started the season particularly slow, finishing T25 and 30th in the first two events but he did finish T2 at this event in 2024. Bryson finished T6 here last year.

Defending Hong Kong champ Abraham Ancer can be had between +2000 and +2200.

LIV Golf recent winners and odds history

Here are the recent LIV Golf winners and their closing odds to win:

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

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