Maybe the biggest week of sports betting in golf, the Masters and its infinite supply of betting markets is here in all its glory.
With Scheffler, Rory, and Rahm taking up so much of the Masters odds market, the best value is coming from those below, with guys like Corey Conners coming in off of last week's victory and a former Green Jacket winner rounding back into top form.
I break down my three favorite golf picks in my Masters picks and predictions below.
Masters picks
- Corey Conners over Matt Fitzpatrick (+108)
- Tiger Woods to make the cut (-165)
- Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 (+138)
Picks made on 4/4/2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Masters picks and predictions
Corey Conners over Matt Fitzpatrick (+108 at FanDuel)
Why not kick things off with a guy who just got back into the Winner's Circle with a second victory at the Valero Texas Open last week? Corey Conners — and all that winning momentum — now takes the trip down Magnolia Lane, where he’s pieced together a particularly strong resume in recent years.
What makes the Canadian such a great fit here is the elite ball-striking but more particularly, his iron play. He sits 26th in strokes gained approach this season with the 14th-best greens in regulation percentage (70.22%) and he gained nearly 10 strokes with his irons in his win last week.
His strong results here at the Masters are a direct reflection of that, improving from a T46 finish in 2019 to Top-10 finishes in each of the last three years and a personal-best T6 in 2022.
Fitz, meanwhile, is heading in the other direction. While he did finish T14 here a year ago, I’d classify the rest of his Masters resume as pretty average (T34-T46-T21-T38-32-T7-MC). And despite being a reigning major champion, he enters the week having missed the cut in four of his last seven starts and sits 172nd in strokes gained approach for the season.
The odds here are rather foolish when you consider Corey’s run of success here and Fitz’s total lack of form entering the biggest week of the year.
Tiger Woods to make the cut (-165)
As is always the case when he tees it up, the biggest storyline this week is Tiger Woods — and while I’m skeptical about his ability to truly contend for another Green Jacket, that’s far from what I’m asking for here and there are some discrepancies in the odds that you can take advantage of.
Some sportsbooks have him listed as short as -275 to make the cut this week, whereas FanDuel (-174) and DraftKings (-165) have him much longer. If you’re at bet365, you can also catch this boosted to +100.
That -165 price has an implied probability of 62% (-275 is 73%) and to me, that feels pretty far off considering his track record and how valuable his course knowledge will be at Augusta National. Yes, we’re laying some juice here but with Tiger, it’s worth the squeeze.
He's never missed a Masters cut in 24 tries (!) and that includes last year’s return from a year-long hiatus following his crash in 2021. With rounds of 71 and 74, he cleared the cut line by three shots and was lingering at points early in the week before fading away on the weekend.
Since then, Tiger’s flashed some really good golf (see his third-round 67 at Riviera), and considering he’s another year removed from his injuries, the expectation is that he’ll be able to hold up better physically as the week goes on.
His ability to put four strong rounds together and contend in a major remains to be seen, but I have very little doubt he’ll be back to play the weekend once more.
Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 (+138)
All things considered; it’s been a slow few months for Hideki but there have been some signs in recent weeks that suggest his best stuff is near.
Even with that quiet start, he still finds himself inside the Top 30 in both total strokes gained (27th) and strokes gained tee-to-green (29th), but he’s taken it up a notch over the last month.
He ranked 11th in the field from tee to green at THE PLAYERS (finished fifth) and then 10th at last week’s Valero (T15) while also ranking fourth off the tee. That’s the top-end ball-striking we’ve come to expect from Hideki and ultimately why the 2021 Masters champ has played so well at Augusta year after year.
There weren’t a ton picking him to win in 2021, but he certainly had the track record in hindsight: he finished 19th or better — including two Top-7 finishes — in five of his six prior Masters starts before the big breakthrough two years ago.
Add in that win and last year’s T14 and you get a run of seven Top 20s in his last eight starts here. That’s one of the more impressive Masters resumes that, when combined with his upward trend in ball-striking, I expect him to add to this week.
