After securing his first Green Jacket at the 2023 Masters, Jon Rahm is among the favorites on our PGA Championship odds board as he looks to win the second major of the season at Oak Hill Country Club.
Oak Hill is a Par-70, 7,394-yard track designed by Donald Ross and renovated by Andrew Green in 2019. With thin fairways, thick rough, and hazards scattered throughout the course, accuracy is key at Oak Hill.
How will the World No. 1 fare this week? Read our full breakdown of Jon Rahm's golf odds below to find out.
Jon Rahm's odds at the 2023 PGA Championship
| Betting market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win outright | +750 |
| To finish in the Top 5 | +190 |
| To finish in the Top 10 | +100 |
| To finish in the Top 20 | -200 |
| To lead after Round 1 | +1,800 |
| Top 5 after Round 1 | +500 |
| Top 10 after Round 1 | +280 |
| Top 20 after Round 1 | +145 |
| To miss the cut | +550 |
| To make the cut | -900 |
| Top Continental European | +110 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 16, 2023.
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Jon Rahm pre-tournament best bet
In golf, there is Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and then everyone else. Those two guys are far and away the two best golfers in the world, and when they are both on their game, they are practically unbeatable.
While it pains me to do so, I am going to back Scheffler to beat Rahm in the matchup market at -110. Although I personally think Rahm is the top dog in golf, Oak Hill sets up more nicely for Scheffler to claim his second major championship.
As mentioned above, Oak Hill rewards accuracy over power with its thin fairways and numerous hazards both lining those fairways and protecting the greens. On Tour this year, Scheffler ranks first in greens in regulation percentage (GIR%) and 22nd in driving accuracy.
Meanwhile, Rahm ranks second and 73rd in those two respective categories. Scheffler has been an assassin at major championships over the past few seasons, despite just one win when he slipped on the Green Jacket in 2022.
Since 2020, Scheffler has finished inside the Top 10 in seven of the last 10 majors. Over that same stretch, Rahm also possesses a Masters victory but has been a bit more inconsistent.
Last year, he failed to crack the Top 10 in any of the four majors. Rahm turned that around with his win at Augusta National this season, but Oak Hill will likely benefit Scheffler’s game more.
My best bet: Scottie Scheffler over Jon Rahm (-110 at DraftKings)
Jon Rahm pre-tournament finishing props
To win outright (+750)
Rahm possesses the second-shortest odds in the outright winner market, falling 50 cents behind Scheffler. While many men could win this tournament, the betting market has made Rahm and Scheffler heavy favorites relative to the rest of the field, and for good reason.
These two are the best golfers in the world and by a decent margin. Rahm and Scheffler have combined to win six of the 13 tournaments they have been a part of this season, with Rahm boasting four of those.
This success between those two carries over to major championships as well, combining to win three of the past seven. While one of those two guys could very well win this week, I don't like either of their odds below 8/1.
Top 5 finish (+190)
Rahm has finished inside the Top 5 in seven of the 12 tournaments he's played in this year, including his win at Augusta. However, he has finished inside the Top 5 just once in his last five major championship starts.
Top 10 finish (+100)
As we keep going down the finishing positions, Rahm’s odds are obviously going in the other direction. Rahm has finished inside the Top 10 in eight of 12 tournaments this season, but, again, he's only finished inside this position once over his past five major championship appearances.
Jon Rahm pre-tournament Round 1 props
Round 1 leader (+1,800)
Personally, I find very little value in betting on the first-round market. There is a reason that everyone’s odds are much longer to win the first round than to win the tournament, and that is volatility.
More unpredictability can happen in an 18-hole sample size as opposed to 72. When you span a tournament over four days, the randomness is more likely to even out while the expected results have a greater chance of coming to fruition.
With that in mind, picking a guy to lead after the first round is much more of a dart throw than picking someone to win the tournament, but if you think Rahm can go wire-to-wire with the lead — which is certainly possible — then 18/1 is a much more attractive number than 15/2.
Jon Rahm pre-tournament cut props
To make/miss the cut (-900/+550)
This market is pretty much useless for a guy like Rahm. The only time Rahm has failed to make the cut this season is when he withdrew from THE PLAYERS Championship due to the stomach flu.
In fact, he hasn't missed a cut since the 2021 Fortinet Championship, but laying this much juice is not something I would personally recommend.
Jon Rahm pre-tournament extra props
Top Continental European (+120)
I actually think this would be a pretty solid play to make and I'll be putting a unit on it, considering that Rahm’s main competition in this market is Viktor Hovland. Outside of those two, there is not another Continental European golfer playing this week that is in the OWGR’s Top 35.
While Hovland is a stud, Oak Hill could give him some trouble. He ranks lower than Rahm in both FIR% and GIR% and if Hovland forces himself into difficult up-and-downs, then it could be a frustrating week for the Norwegian.
Hovland is very well-rounded, but his one weakness is his work around the green. That could be especially problematic at Oak Hill, a course that is especially difficult to scramble on.
