The second major championship of the season is here, and all eyes will be on Valhalla Golf Club for the 2024 PGA Championship.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and last week’s Wells Fargo Championship winner Rory McIlroy are the betting favorites in the PGA Championship odds, followed by Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, and Ludvig Aberg.
The short golf odds at the top of the board have presented a number of favorable numbers down the list, and our free golf picks feature a trio of sleepers and long shots to target
2024 PGA Championship sleeper picks
- Justin Thomas to win outright (+5,500 at FanDuel)
- Sepp Straka to win outright (+10,000 at FanDuel)
- Keegan Bradley to win outright (+22,500 at Caesars)
- Justin Thomas Top 30 (+125 at bet365)
- Sepp Straka Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
- Keegan Bradley Top 40 (+170 at bet365)
Picks were made on 5-14 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
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2024 PGA Championship and Valhalla Golf Club key stats
Valhalla will play as a grueling 7,609-yard Par 71 this year, marking the fourth time it’s hosted the PGA Championship. In addition to it being long, the bentgrass greens will be the third smallest this season while running 13 on the Stimpmeter. That's quick.
There are water hazards in play on seven of 18 holes and seven Par 4s over 450 yards. Add three of the Par 3s stretching over 200 yards, and it’s going to take a complete tee-to-green game paired with excellent putting to win this week.
Distance off the tee will be an advantage, but long-iron play into smaller greens will be equally important. Additionally, missed fairways and greens will be penal because of the four-inch rough.
The PGA of America has put an emphasis on its PGA Championship playing a true test that requires every shot in the bag, so expect scoring to be difficult and most players to have more squares than circles on their card when it's all said and done.
- Strokes gained tee-to-green
- Strokes gained approach
- Approaches from 175-200 yards
- Strokes gained putting
- Major championships track record
- Bogey avoidance
2024 PGA Championship sleeper predictions
Justin Thomas to win outright (+5,500)
The two-time Wanamaker winner has played well in consecutive events since missing the cut at the Masters in April. Thomas has gained true strokes across the board en route to a T5 at the RBC Heritage and T21 at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. He’s also above average in both approaches from 175-200 yards and bogey avoidance on tour this season despite so-so form for most of the year.
It’s particularly encouraging to see Thomas rolling the rock well because even after gaining strokes on the greens in his latest two events, he still ranks 101st in true strokes gained — putting in this field across his past 22 rounds. A few more putts falling for the hometown hero has the potential to be the catalyst for his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship.
After all, there’s no questioning Thomas’ talent given his 15 PGA Tour wins. Finally, there’s also a nice edge in the +5,500 FanDuel price, with Caesars hanging at +3,500. The difference is a positive expected value of 57% attached to the FanDuel odds.
Pick: Justin Thomas to win outright (+5,500 at FanDuel, 0.5 units)
Pick: Justin Thomas Top 30 (+125 at bet365)
Sepp Straka to win outright (+10,000)
Straka is in strong form and has played the weekend in four consecutive events, including finishing T16 at the Masters. The two-time PGA Tour winner also ranked seventh in true strokes gained on approach, 13th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and 16th in true strokes gained putting during his T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.
The improved play has him ranked third in true strokes gained on approach and eighth in true strokes gained off-the-tee in this field across his past 11 measured rounds, and he's finished T7 in the 2023 PGA Championship. Add a T2 at The Open Championship last summer, and Straka is in the beginning stages of building an impressive major championship resume.
While there isn’t a gigantic gap in the available odds, bet365 is as low as +8,000 for the Austrian to win. The difference compared to the +10,000 FanDuel price checks out as an expected value of 21%.
Pick: Sepp Straka to win outright (+10,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Sepp Straka Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
Keegan Bradley to win outright (+22,500)
This is an egregious +22,500 Caesars price for Bradley, and while he definitely isn’t on the shortlist of potential winners, there’s only a short list of players who can top his iron game. He ranks 11th in this field in true strokes gained on approach across his past 39 measured rounds and has been above average from the key range of 175-200 yards, after all.
Bradley also carded a T33 in the 2017 PGA Championship at Valhalla, a T29 in last year’s edition, and won as recently as the Travelers Championship last June. He finished T22 at the Masters and showed well last week with a T21 finish at the Wells Fargo with ranks of sixth in true strokes gained on approach and 20th in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Again, this is an example where seeking out the best odds presents a sizable advantage. Bradley is trading at just +17,500 through bet365, so there’s a positive expected value of 36% in backing the Caesars odds.
Pick: Keegan Bradley to win outright (+22,500 at Caesars, 0.1 units)
Pick: Keegan Bradley Top 40 (+170 at bet365)
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