The PGA Tour FedEx Cup Fall swing continues with the Sanderson Farms Championship at The Country Club of Jackson this week, and our top golf picks have you covered for all of the action.
It’s far from the strongest field we’ll see, with Mackenzie Hughes, Keith Mitchell, and Maverick McNealy headlining as the betting favorites in the Sanderson Farms Championship odds.
Best Sanderson Farms Championship picks
- Kim to win outright (+4,000 at FanDuel)
- Norlander to win outright (+7,000 at bet365)
- Kuchar Top 40 (-115 at bet365)
- Novak Top 40 (+100 at BetMGM)
- McNealy Over 11.5 Round 1 pars (+100 at Caesars)
Sanderson Farms Championship outright picks
Pick to win: Chan Kim
+4,000 at FanDuel
Chan Kim has been sneaky good while playing the weekend in five of his past six events, with a T10 and two more T12s during the run. He ranks second in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field across the six-tournament stretch, and he’s a proven worldwide winner with a pair of Korn Ferry victories last season and eight more on the Japan Golf Tour.
He also ranks seventh in birdie average, eighth in birdie-or-better percentage, and 13th in scrambling percentage on the PGA Tour. Add him ranking 23rd in Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage, and he’s positioned to have an excellent showing in Jackson this week.
I’m also recommending a complementary bet on Kim to finish Top 30 at +105 odds through bet365.
Sleeper pick to win: Henrik Norlander
+7,000 at bet365
Henrik Norlander has had sterling success at The Country Club of Jackson. The Swede lost in a playoff to finish T2 last year after a T24 and a pair of T4s in the prior three editions.
Additionally, he enters in excellent ball-striking form with ranks of second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in true strokes gained approach in this field across his past seven events. He has four Top-25 results during the seven-tournament stretch, too.
There is also a sizable edge with the +7,000 FanDuel odds. Caesars has him priced at just +5,500, with the difference attaching a positive expected value of 28% to the +7,000 number. Finally, adding Norlander to finish Top 40 at -105 odds through BetMGM is an advised secondary bet on the Swede.
Sanderson Farms Championship prop picks
Finishing position pick: Matt Kuchar Top 40
-115 at bet365
The eight-time Tour winner is dialed in with three consecutive Top-15 finishes while gaining true strokes across the board. Matt Kuchar also impressively ranks second in true strokes gained tee-to-green, fourth in true strokes gained approach, and second in driving accuracy in this field during the three-tournament stretch.
This is also an outlier -115 bet365 offering. BetMGM has a Kuchar Top 40 priced at -145, with the difference in numbers attaching a positive expected value of 11% to the -115 odds.
Matchup pick: Andrew Novak Top 40
+100 at BetMGM
Andrew Novak emerged as a solid player this season and as a contender to win on Tour for the first time sooner than later. He’s 22nd in adjusted scoring average and his current form is also strong.
The 29-year-old American has played the weekend in six consecutive events with ranks of 16th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 12th on approach, and 23rd in true strokes gained putting in this field across the six-tournament run. It’s resulted in four Top 20s, and remember, Novak also posted three consecutive Top 10s earlier this season in the Phoenix Open, Mexico Open, and Cognizant Classic.
This is also another nod that you’ll benefit from by shopping for the best price. DraftKings has this listed at -140, so backing the +100 BetMGM odds offers a positive expected value of 17%.
Sanderson Farms Championship first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Maverick McNealy Over 11.5 pars
+100 at Caesars
Maverick McNealy ranks 15th in adjusted scoring average on Tour despite underwhelming approach metrics. He’s 101st in greens-in-regulation percentage and ranks 126th in proximity from 125-150 yards and 90th from 100-125 yards, which are both key yardages this week.
Additionally, McNealy has lost true strokes on approach and ranks 71st in this field in the metric across his past 10 events. He also lost strokes off-the-tee and on approach here during his T17 finish in 2021.
Expect the elite putting to remain his calling card, and he also ranks 16th in scrambling percentage. It all adds up to a lot of up-and-downs from off the green and long-range birdie looks turning into tap-in par putts.
Sanderson Farms Championship odds
- Keith Mitchell: +2,200
- Nick Dunlap: +2,200
- Mackenzie Hughes: +2,500
- Seamus Power: +2,500
- Maverick McNealy: +2,500
- Patrick Rodgers: +3,000
- Patrick Fishburn: +3,000
- Jhonattan Vegas: +3,000
- J.J. Spaun: +3,000
- Eric Cole: +3,000
- Ben Griffin: +3,000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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