It’s the final tournament of the PGA Tour season, and defending champion Ludvig Aberg is playing headliner and betting favorite for this week's RSM Classic at Sea Island.
Davis Thompson, Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy, and Si Woo Kim follow him in the RSM Classic odds, one of which highlights our top golf picks below.
Best RSM Classic picks
- Thompson to win outright (+2,200 at FanDuel)
- Glover to win outright (+4,500 at BetMGM)
- Power Top 30 (-110 at bet365)
- English Top 30 (+100 at bet365)
- Aberg Round 1 Over 10.5 pars (-138 at bet365)
RSM Classic outright picks
Pick to win: Davis Thompson
+2,200 at FanDuel
Davis Thompson has played the weekend in 10 consecutive events while posting his first PGA Tour victory and carding another three Top-10 results, one of which was a T5 last time out at the Shriners.
The underlying numbers have been elite, too. He's second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the run, and he’s seventh in adjusted scoring average for the season.
Additionally, a Top-20 bet on Thompson is a solid complement, and BetRivers is offering an outlier price at +140.
Sleeper pick to win: Lucas Glover
+4,500 at BetMGM
These +4,500 BetMGM odds are an outlier high number to target, with Lucas Glover trading as short as +3,500 at DraftKings. The difference attaches a positive expected value of 29% to the BetMGM offering.
This will be Glover’s 11th competitive trip to Sea Island, and he’s played the weekend eight times with four Top 25s. It’s his current form calling my name, though.
He paces this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and approach while also ranking a respectable 26th in true strokes gained putting across his past five events. He’s posted a pair of T3 finishes at the Sanderson Farms and Black Desert along the way, too.
Again, I’m recommending a secondary bet on Glover to finish Top 30 this week at +125 through bet365.
RSM Classic prop picks
Finishing position pick: Seamus Power Top 30
-110 at bet365
Seamus Power has been incredibly consistent while playing the weekend in 11 of his past 12 events and posting nine Top-30 finishes. Of course, a number of those events also featured a much tougher field than he’ll go up against this week.
Plus, he ranks 13th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 17th in true strokes gained putting during the 12-tournament stretch. Add ranking 17th in scrambling percentage and 23rd in bogey avoidance this season, and he's positioned to have another solid showing at Sea Island.
The Irishman carded a Top-5 result in his past two trips to the event, after all.
Finishing position pick: Harris English Top 30
+100 at bet365
The local has consecutive Top 30 finishes in this event and heads to Sea Island for the 13th time with three consecutive Top 15s overall.
Harris English is a proven form player with an elite short game. He’s fourth in this field in true strokes gained putting across 26 events over the past calendar year, after all. Additionally, ranking 30th in scrambling percentage this year reinforces his ability to score despite middling iron play, and I also value him ranking 10th in total driving.
Still, this nod is all about the pairing of current form and course knowledge. Plus, if English’s approach play heats up at a track he’s as familiar with as anyone, he’ll be in the mix for a fourth consecutive event.
RSM Classic first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Ludvig Aberg Round 1 Over 10.5 pars
-138 at bet365
Ludvig Aberg went 24-under across three rounds at the Seaside Course en route to his first PGA Tour victory last season. He carded 23 birdies, an eagle, and a bogey across the 54-hole stretch and gained true strokes on the greens all three days.
The Plantation Course doesn’t have Shotlink data, so Aberg’s finish of fourth in true strokes gained putting and first in both true strokes gained off-the-tee and tee-to-green back up his dominant run in last year’s event and success on this track.
This week, he’ll play Round 1 at the Seaside Course, and I’m simply anticipating a few more of those bridies turning into tap-in pars. He hasn’t played a competitive round since finishing the TOUR Championship in September, and leading into this event last year, Aberg was on a heater and had played six times in the 2.5 months leading up to it.
That six-tournament stretch included a win at the Omega European Masters, a pair of Top 5s and Top 10s, and a worst finish of T13 in the Shriners.
RSM Classic odds
- Ludvig Aberg: +900
- Davis Thompson: +2,200
- Brian Harman: +2,200
- Denny McCarthy: +2,500
- Si Woo Kim: +2,800
- J.T. Poston: +3,000
- Harris English: +3,000
- Seamus Power: +3,000
- Ben Griffin: +3,000
- Maverick McNealy: +3,000
- Matt Wallace: +3,000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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