The Florida Swing charges on with the best of the best on the PGA Tour gathering at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship this week.
While it’s a loaded field headlined by betting favorites in THE PLAYERS Championship odds Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa, I’m filling out my card with a trio of sleeper and longshot golf picks from further down the odds list this week.
THE PLAYERS Championship sleeper picks
- Matsuyama to win outright (+4000 at BetMGM)
- Straka to win outright (+5500 at FanDuel)
- Rai to win outright (+7000 at FanDuel)
Picks were made on 3-10 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
THE PLAYERS Championship sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Hideki Matsuyama
+4000 at BetMGM
Simply put, I didn’t anticipate Hideki Matsuyama being priced this high.
He’s won three loaded-field events in the past 13 months and heads to TPC Sawgrass with three consecutive Top-25 finishes. Add Matsuyama going solo-fifth and T6 here the past two years to him gaining true strokes off-the-tee in all 10 trips to the event and true strokes on approach in nine of 10, and it’s surprising to see him in this odds range.
Additionally, I value Matsuyama ranking second in scrambling percentage and 14th in bogey avoidance alongside his rock-solid 10th-ranked adjusted scoring average.
Sleeper pick to win: Sepp Straka
+5500 at FanDuel
Sepp Straka heads to Ponte Vedra Beach in arguably the best form of his career, and he’s posted a solid T9-T65-T16 run at Sawgrass to reinforce his ability to navigate the track.
Straka won The American Express in January and has posted a T11 in the Cognizant Classic and T5 in the Arnold Palmer to start the Florida Swing.
I particularly value his solid ball-striking metrics this season. He’s 10th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and seventh in driving accuracy in this field. Straka also finished third in true strokes gained putting and sixth on approach at Bay Hill last week.
Sleeper pick to win: Aaron Rai
+7000 at FanDuel
It’s been a breakout calendar year for Aaron Rai, and he’s played the weekend in both trips to Sawgrass with respectable T19 and T35 finishes. The Englishman is also coming off a T4 in Mexico and T11 at the Arnold Palmer last week, so he’s in excellent form ahead of this year’s event.
Rai has collected a win and six more Top 10s since last year’s PLAYERS, and he ranks second in this field in driving accuracy and 16th in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the stretch. His ball-striking acumen will enable him to position his way around this track, and if the putts fall, he’ll be in contention.
