The golf world has been turned upside down over the past few weeks. Mergers, acquisitions. It felt like the final season of Succession, with Rory McIlroy in the role of Kendall Roy.
If only there were some kind of distraction to focus on this week...
Oh, how about the third major championship of the season — the U.S. Open, with the 123rd edition of the championship getting underway Thursday at the Los Angeles Country Club North.
Familiar names are at the top of the U.S. Open odds board. Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, and McIlroy are the Top 4. But I’m looking for a little more value with my U.S. Open picks, so I've scoured the golf odds to tee up some winners for this weekend.
Be sure to dive into Dan Dobish's three favorite U.S. Open sleeper picks, as well as Tony Sartori's LIV vs. PGA picks.
Best U.S. Open bonuses
Looking to do some U.S. Open betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Add +300 onto any golfer to win the U.S. Open at DraftKings! Bet Now
B) Get boosted odds on Xander Schauffele & Max Homa to each finish Top 10 at Caesars! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Prop picks
Picks made on 6/14/2023 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Odds to win the 2023 U.S. Open
U.S. Open prop picks
Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+230)
I am reasonably certain that despite his apparent Sunday struggles in big events, Xander Schauffele will win a major championship someday soon. Will it be this weekend at LACC North? That’s still up in the air, but I am pretty certain that he’ll put on a strong performance either way.
Schauffele has yet to break through at a major. His game doesn’t really have any holes and as a result, he has a ridiculously high floor. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise he’s been incredibly consistent in U.S. Opens. Schauffele was Top 7 or better in his first five U.S. Championships before finishing 14th last year.
And even though Schauffele doesn’t have a win this season, he is in great form heading into the year’s third major. He hasn’t missed a cut in 15 events and he has five Top 10s in his last seven events — including a runner-up at the Wells Fargo Championship. He ranks fourth in strokes gained: total, sixth in strokes gained: approach, 12th in strokes gained: putting, and ninth in scoring average.
While the U.S. Open has produced several “big bomber” type champions over the last few years, LACC will reward secondary shot-making and creativity. So, even if Schauffele isn’t the longest off the tee, he can make up for it with his elite ball-striking ability. And if he does get in trouble around the green, he ranks 15th in scrambling.
As I said, I’m not sure if this is the week where Xander finally breaks through and wins that elusive major championship, but he definitely has the game, and the form, to do so. Another Top 10 finish is very much on the table and I love the value for Schauffele to be near the top of the leaderboard when all is said and done come Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 (+145)
Like Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton also falls under the category of great players yet to win a major championship. And also like Schauffele, Hatton comes into the major with the game to change that narrative.
The 31-year-old Englishman — who has some of the best conversations with himself on a golf course you will ever hear — hasn’t finished worse than 15th in each of his last five starts, and has three Top 5 finishes in that stretch... including an impressive performance at the RBC Canadian Open where he missed the playoff by one stroke.
Now he heads to the LACC with some impressive numbers. It will probably shock you to realize that Hatton ranks third on tour when it comes to strokes gained: total and scoring average. He also ranks 11th in strokes gained: off the tee, 17th in strokes gained: approach, and seventh in strokes gained putting.
Then there is this doozy of a stat from Justin Ray:
Players ranked in the top-20 this season on PGA Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee, approach and putting:
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 12, 2023
Jon Rahm
Tyrrell Hatton
The putting is what could put Hatton over the top. LACC has a ton of funky-shaped Bermuda grass greens that should be running fast this weekend and he has traditionally done well with tough greens in his career — Bay Hill in 2020 comes to mind.
Hatton is trending in the right direction after last week’s performance at the Canadian Open, he is an elite ball striker, and is locked in with the flat stick. I’m betting he makes it seven consecutive Top 20 finishes this week with a solid performance at a solid plus-money price tag.
