2024 U.S. Open Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Homa Takes Another Big Step

The 2024 U.S. Open is here, and Pinehurst No. 2 is set to test the field for the fourth time. Alone atop this week's golf odds is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, as he looks to win his second major championship and sixth tournament of the season.

I’m looking further down the U.S. Open odds lists with my long-shots and sleeper golf picks, with several proven players with big prices to target at Pinehurst this week.

2024 U.S. Open sleeper picks

• Max Homa to win outright (+5,500 at FanDuel)
• Billy Horschel to win outright (+17,000 at FanDuel)
• Harris English to win outright (+17,500 at Caesars)
  
  
• Max Homa Top 30 (+100 at DraftKings)
• Billy Horschel Top 40 (+115 at DraftKings)
• Harris English Top 40 (+120 at DraftKings)

Picks were made on 6-11 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

2024 U.S. Open and Pinehurst No. 2 key stats

The storied Pinehurst No. 2 is the signature Donald Ross design and is listed as a 7,550-yard Par 70, with just a pair of Par 5s.

 Typical of a U.S. Open layout, eight Par 4s are stretching over 450 yards, with three of them north of 500 yards. There are also three Par 4s under 400 yards, though, and half the Par 3s are under 200 yards, so length isn’t a consistent challenge. I also expect it to play firm and fast and not as long as the yardage because of the forecasted high temperatures throughout the tournament and only scattered showers.

Still, there were only three players to shoot under par when the track hosted the 2014 U.S. Open. The 117 bunkers and penial native areas featuring wiregrass are prominent throughout the track and can bring bogeys into play in bunches. Additionally, while accuracy off the tee will be critical, it's also important to highlight the forgiving fairway landing areas that stretch 35-40 yards wide — atypical of traditional U.S. Open setups.

The green complexes are domed and feature numerous run-offs that make them tough to hit and stick, which places an added emphasis on around-the-green play and scrambling. It’s also important to note that these greens have been converted from bentgrass to Champion Ultradwarf Bermudagrass since the 2014 U.S. Open.

Switchbacks are an additional characteristic of Pinehurst No. 2, with 10 tee shots moving left to right and then a number of second shots requiring a right-to-left shot shape to the green. Again, it reinforces the importance of accuracy while also having a strategic tee-to-green plan.

• Strokes gained tee-to-green, driving accuracy
• Strokes gained approach
• Scrambling, strokes gained around-the-green
• Bogey avoidance
• Strokes gained putting

2024 U.S. Open sleeper predictions

Max Homa to win outright (+5,500)

Max Homa landing in long-shot territory is a little surprising given he ranks 10th and 18th in OWGR and DataGolf, respectively, but his poor history in the U.S. Open is giving us a long number on a well-rounded player.

Even with his underwhelming U.S. Open track record, I’m interested because of the odds. He’s begun to play better at majors with a T10-T3-T35 run since the 2023 Open Championship. Homa has also played the weekend in 21 of his past 23 events with a win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and another 16 Top-25 finishes while gaining true strokes across the board during the lengthy heater.

This +5,500 FanDuel price also presents a huge edge compared to the +3,500 bet365 odds, with the difference in the two numbers attaching a positive expected value of 57% to the +5,500 FanDuel odds. 

Pick: Max Homa to win outright (+5,500 at FanDuel, 0.5 units)
Pick: Max Homa Top 30 (+100 at DraftKings)

Billy Horschel to win outright (+17,000)

The eight-time PGA Tour winner has rattled off three consecutive Top 25s, including his T8 at the PGA Championship and a T15 at the Memorial last week. While Billy Horschel’s ball-striking doesn’t jump off the page statistically, he’s second in true strokes gained putting across the noted three-tournament stretch and has also gained true strokes tee-to-green on the field.

Additionally, Horschel finished T23 here at Pinehurst in 2014 and he ranks 13th in scrambling and 11th in bogey avoidance for the season. I’m anticipating him strategically navigating his way from tee to green and putting well again this week to have another strong showing.

Finally, this is an incredibly long number for a player with Horschel’s experience and resume, especially considering Caesars and BetMGM are both hanging +12,500 outright odds. The difference attaches a positive expected value of 37% to the +17,000 FanDuel price.

Pick: Billy Horschel to win outright (+17,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Billy Horschel Top 40 (+115 at DraftKings)

Harris English to win outright (+17,500)

I’d love to see better current form Harris English, especially in the ball-striking department, but his track record at the U.S. Open and recent play in major championships doesn’t align with these odds. He’s carded a Top 10 in three of the past four U.S. Opens and enters following a T22-T18 tandem at the Masters and PGA Championship.

Again, English isn't a statistical darling heading into this event. He ranks 30th in this field in driving accuracy and 56th in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past 76 measured rounds, but ranking eighth in true strokes gained putting has my attention.

Additionally, his game translates best to tough tracks where pars are at a premium. In addition to the noted strong showings in majors, English also finished T19 at THE PLAYERS, T21 at the Arnold Palmer, seventh at The Genesis, and T17 at the Phoenix Open.

This is also another example where there's a notable edge to be found by shopping for the best odds. The +17,500 Caesars price carries a positive expected value of 41% compared to the +12,500 bet365 number.

Pick: Harris English to win outright (+17,500 at Caesars, 0.25 units)
Pick: Harris English Top 40 (+120 at DraftKings)

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