The host team and pre-tournament betting favorite meet in the IIHF World Junior Championship game Friday, and Team USA remains the favorite in the World Junior odds to win it all against Team Sweden.
Both the Swedes and Americans overcame adversity to advance to Friday’s gold-medal game, as they each were sloppy to start their semifinal contests and entered their respective third periods in 2-2 ties.
Sweden took over against Czechia with three unanswered goals to win 5-2, but it wasn’t as smooth for the U.S. The Americans needed a power-play tally from Cutter Gauthier with just 3:13 remaining to take a 3-2 lead, and they also needed to fend off a late minor penalty to secure the one-goal win.
There is no question which side the majority of the hometown fans will be behind, and Swedish goalie Havelid Hugo has been a human highlight reel, so can the U.S. team live up to pre-tournament expectations and bring the gold stateside?
Find out in our World Juniors betting picks for USA vs. Sweden on January 5.
USA vs Sweden odds
 USA |
Sweden  |
|
|---|---|---|
| -154 | Moneyline | +120 |
| +325 | Tie (regular time) | +325 |
| -1.5 (+170) | Spread | +1.5 (-222) |
| Over 5.5 (-105) | Total | Under 5.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction as of January 4, 2024.
Welcome to Sports Interaction 2.0
Looking to bet on some NHL action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, with a brand-new platform featuring same-game parlays, increased prop markets, and more!
USA vs Sweden picks and predictions
The Americans entered the tournament with the deepest and most talented roster, and the proof has been in the pudding throughout. Finland capitalized on early opportunities Thursday, but the U.S. team never deviated from attacking with speed, deft puck movement, and pushing the tempo in transition.
They’re relentless. The scoring depth was once again on full display again against the Finns, with eight different Americans hitting the scoresheet, and 14 of 18 skaters registering a shot on goal.
I am nervous Sweden netminder Havelid Hugo could put the nation on his back, but he’s sporting an unsustainably high .952 SV%. The red, white, and blue also have an unparalleled offensive attack jumping the boards and are averaging 6.5 goals per game.
The total for this game is 5.5, so bookmakers are pegging this to be a close, low-scoring final. And make no mistake about it, Hugo’s play is baked into that number.
Still, I’m skeptical of the Swedes' inferior skill and scoring depth, and expect it to catch up to them. If they commit to limiting the American’s quality chances, it’ll be to the detriment of their own offense. On the flip side, if Sweden cheats defensively to attack, it’ll leave them susceptible to the U.S. scoring prowess.
So, yes, the Stars ‘n’ Stripes can and will bring gold stateside.
My best bet: USA moneyline (-154 at SIA)
USA vs Sweden moneyline & Over/Under analysis
SIA was one of the first sportsbooks to release WJC odds for the USA-Sweden final. As highlighted, the Americans are a sizable favorite on the moneyline, so the three-way regulation market might be of more interest. The U.S. is listed at +105 with Sweden being offered at +190, and the game going to overtime is currently at +325.
I personally prefer the security of having the chance for the Americans to win in overtime or a shootout. Plus, the odds for both markets are correlated, so there isn’t an edge in the numbers.
As for the total, I’m not surprised to see it trading at 5.5 because of how well Hugo has played. Additionally, Sweden lacks a true scoring star, so I ultimately expect the Swedes to play conservatively.
However, unlike the majority of hockey games, everything is on the line in this one. If one team is trailing by two or more goals late in the third, the risk of a goalie being pulled far earlier than we’d traditionally see is real. An Under bet could be crushed in a hurry on Friday.
USA vs Sweden betting trend to know
Sweden hasn’t won the WJC since 2012, and the only other gold medal for the Swedes came all the way back in 1981.
USA vs Finland game info
| Location: | Scandinavium, Gothenburg, Sweden |
| Date: | Friday, January 5, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
