Following a dramatic 3-2 regulation win over Team Canada on Tuesday, Czechia is in tough again vs. the host nation Sweden who have also beaten Canada in this tournament and come into the semifinal match as a -333 favorite for the Thursday morning elimination game.
With Sweden likely going back to goalie Hugo Havelid, his .966 save percentage, and boasting the best special teams in the tournament, is fading the Czechia offense the way to go?
I break down the World Junior Championship odds and offer my free betting picks for Czechia vs. Sweden on January 4.
Sweden vs Czechia odds
 Sweden |
Czechia  |
|
|---|---|---|
| -189 | 3-way (regular time) | +360 |
| +375 | Tie | +375 |
| -1.5 (-113) | Spread | +1.5 (-110) |
| Over 5.5 (-125) | Total | Under 5.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction as of January 3, 2024.
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Sweden vs Czechia picks and predictions
Czechia is coming off a massive win over Canada on Tuesday in a game it built a 2-0 lead, got outplayed, but won 3-2 thanks to another weak goal with 11 seconds remaining in regulation. It was a one-sided game in Canada’s favor following the first frame and a game in which the Canucks had no help between the pipes as Mathis Rousseau let in three soft goals.
Now the underdogs face the host nation, a goalie with a 0.65 GAA and a .966 SV%, and the best penalty kill in the tournament at 90%. I'm not expecting goals from a Czechia squad that failed to generate quality chances in the quarters and now faces the best goalie in the tournament in Hugo Havelid with two shutouts in three games including one over Canada.
Czechia is currently paying +150 to score Under 1.5 goals from Sports Interaction, and that’s where my best bet is.
I do like Sweden on the puck line (-113) as well as the full-game Under 5.5 at -105, but I think there's a close to 50% chance that Sweden locks this game down and Havelid continues to shine.
Sweden doesn’t take many penalties — just 10 in the tournament — and the only infraction it had in the quarterfinal game was a too-many-men penalty. Czechia will have to win at 5-on-5 and that did not look easy vs. Canada despite the win as it managed just 22 shots with most of them being of lower quality.
Penalties were down in the elimination games as the remaining teams were called for just six combined penalties in their quarterfinal wins.
Don’t be fooled by Sweden’s 5-4 SO loss to Finland in the group stage. Havelid did not start and that was a massive rivalry game vs. Finland. I’m expecting more from the Swedes, who held Canada to 21 shots in a 2-0 win instead.
If you can’t bet the team total, the full game Under 5.5 at -105 is my best angle but empty-net goals in a 4-1 game are my biggest worry there.
My best bet: Czechia team total Under 1.5 (+150 at SIA)
Sweden vs Czechia moneyline & Over/Under analysis
Sweden could see more money on the puck line at -1.5 as the semifinal match draws near. They are currently -113 at SIA and have the edge in almost every angle.
They have the goaltending edge with Havelid and his .966 SV% facing Czechia goalie Michael Hrabel, who has started every game for the Czechs but owns a .897 SV%. He made some big saves vs. the Canadians, but Team Canada was allergic to shooting in the tournament and had a ton of shots blocked in Tuesday’s quarterfinal defeat when it did.
The special team’s edge is also in the home side’s favor. Sweden has the tournament’s best power play at 8-for-19 (42%) and the PK has allowed just one goal. The Swedes have been very disciplined with just 10 minor penalties over five games, with three of those coming vs. rival Finland.
Sweden will also have the last change which is a very underrated edge for the better team especially with the big ice where the defense benches can be much further away.
This is a similar total and price to Sweden’s last game with the Swiss in the 3-2 win but they were also -2.5 in that contest. I don’t see a world where Czechia scores 3+ goals in this game especially with Sweden taking such few penalties.
Considering the Swedes are -333 on the ML, the -1.5 PL of -113 is priced better than NHL games. The Dallas Stars were -300 on the ML on Tuesday and had a -1.5 PL of -120 for comparison.
I see this as a 3-0 or 3-1 win for the Swedes and expect them to shut this game down if and when they can get the early lead.
Sweden vs Czechia betting trend to know
Sweden is 14-1 SU in the last 15 meetings in the WJC tournament.
Sweden vs Czechia game info
| Location: | Scandinavium, Gothenburg, Sweden |
| Date: | Thursday, January 4, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
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