Team Canada and Team USA hit the ice at TD Garden for the 4 Nations Face-Off finale on Thursday, February 20, and another international classic between the two powerhouses is all but guaranteed.
My top NHL picks and NHL player props for the Canada vs. USA showdown are focused on a trio of American stars and headlined by Team USA captain Auston Matthews.
Looking for more picks? Be sure to check out my Canada vs. USA predictions ahead of puck drop tonight.
Canada vs USA prop picks and best bets for February 20
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (+210 at bet365)- Connor Hellebuyck Over 27.5 saves (-114 at FanDuel)
- Jack Eichel 1+ assists (+106 at FanDuel)
Sweden vs USA prop picks and best bets
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (+210 at bet365)
American center Auston Matthews sat out Monday’s round-robin finale with an upper-body injury, but I’m of the opinion that it was far more precautionary than anything that will impact his play in Thursday’s championship showdown.
Matthews paced Team USA forwards in ice time in each of his tournament appearances while tallying up two shots, six attempts and three scoring chances, including a rush chance and a high-danger scoring chance against Team Canada. Of course, the Toronto Maple Leafs captain headed into the tournament sporting a six-game goal drought despite racking up 27 shots on 46 attempts and generating 3.2 expected goals.
The puck luck straightens itself out Thursday.
There’s also an edge in the available numbers, with Matthews trading at just +190 to find the back of the net through DraftKings. The difference in the odds attaches a positive expected value of 7% to the +210 bet365 price.
Connor Hellebuyck Over 27.5 saves (-114 at FanDuel)
Team Canada registered 28 shots against both the Swedes and Finns in the round-robin but were limited to just 26 by the Americans, including just 19 at five-on-five. I’m expecting Canada to be shooting from everywhere early and often Thursday, and for the fact that they lost the 5-on-5 possession battle to the Americans to not be lost on the coaching staff or leadership group.
As a result, look for more perimeter shots being funneled toward the American goal with an emphasis on the Canadians driving the netfront in an effort to create screens and rebound chances.
This is the perfect scenario for Connor Hellebuyck to pad his saves total, and he’s been as automatic in this tournament as he’s been for the Winnipeg Jets during the regular season. The betting favorite in the Vezina Trophy odds has posted a .957 save percentage across his two starts for the Americans after leading the NHL with a .925 SV%, 2.06 GAA, and 0.64 goals saved above average per 60 minutes.
Jack Eichel 1+ assists (+106 at FanDuel)
Team USA center Jack Eichel collected four assists while being on the ice for six goals and 6.46 expected goals through three games, including picking up a five-on-five helper against Team Canada.
Eichel has been a force at 5-on-5 with a 54.8 Corsi For percentage and been on the ice for 62.0% of the expected goals. He’s also a primary option as both a passer and shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit, with one of Eichel’s four assists coming with the man advantage.
Of course, Eichel has also been a force for the Vegas Golden Knights all season. He’s fifth in the NHL with 36 points at 5-on-5, and his 8.62 points per 60 minutes with the man advantage are a career-high mark.
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