According to the betting odds to win the Belmont Stakes, Preakness winner War of Will is among the favorites to win this year's third jewel of the Triple Crown. A lot of familiar faces return to take on the field in the Belmont Stakes, along with some newcomers to the Triple Crown trail including speedy Joevia and regally-bred Intrepid Heart.
Here’s a horse-by-horse preview and prediction, betting odds, as well as my best bets for the Belmont Stakes. The race will start with a post time of 6:48 p.m. ET from Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.
No. 1 Joevia (Jockey: Jose Lezcano, 30-1): He’s coming off a win in a graded-stakes race at Monmouth Park in early May. This was a big bounce-back effort after a disappointing 11th place finish in his first ever graded-stakes race in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, where he finished 11th. He will be hoping for an off-track Saturday in the Belmont Stakes as both of his career victories have come in the slop at Monmouth Park. He’s likely to be your pacesetter.
No. 2 Everfast (Luis Saez, 12-1): His only career victory has come against maiden company in his first career start. Despite the recent struggles, he’s coming off his best effort last time out - a very impressive runner-up finish in the Preakness where he road the rail after spotting the field as many as a 22-length advantage. He will be hoping for fast fractions and a pace duel to ensue to have any chance of pulling off the upset.
No. 3 Master Fencer (Julien Leparoux, 8-1): He had a very impressive debut on North American soil in the Kentucky Derby, closing from 23-lengths back and passing some tired horses late to secure a seventh-place finish (moved to sixth due to the disqualification of Maximum Security). He's another horse hoping for faster fractions upfront as he should be closing from far back. According to Trakus data, Master Fencer ran his final quarter-mile in the Kentucky Derby in 24.60 seconds - more than a half-second faster than the next-fastest final split in that race and almost a second faster than any Belmont Stakes horse exiting the Kentucky Derby.
No. 4 Tax (Irad Ortiz Jr., 15-1): He was never a factor in the Kentucky Derby, but a lot of that could be excused by not taking well to the sloppy track. Crossing a line out of his Derby performance, he draws a great post position to take advantage of a ground-saving trip. His best asset is his tactical speed and hopefully he uses that to his advantage after drawing a very favorable post.
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No. 5 Bourbon War (Mike Smith, 12-1): He's performed well enough against some of the top three-year-olds with a second-place effort to Code of Honor in the Fountain of Youth and a fourth-place finish behind Maximum Security in the Florida Derby. He did not take well to the addition of blinkers last time out, so his Preakness effort - although poor - might be excusable. Having a jockey upgrade to Mike Smith is huge, as he’s ridden three Belmont Stakes winners in Drosselmeyer in 2010, Palace Malice in 2013, and Justify in 2018.
No. 6 Spinoff (Javier Castellano, 15-1): He had a very wide trip in the Kentucky Derby and did not take well to the sloppy track. Right before the Derby, his second-place effort in the Louisiana Derby was his best race, finishing second less than a length off the eventual winner. He’s at his best when he can use some of that early speed to secure a position upfront early. He should be involved in the first group of horses attempting to set the pace, however, distance may be an issue as he has shown a tendency to tire late.
No. 7 Sir Winston (Joel Rosario, 12-1): Last time out was by far his most impressive effort, finishing second in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. He logged his highest speed figure – 101 surpassing the previous high of 96. If he works out a similar trip to last start, he will be one of a few runners in here flying late off a closing trip which could make him dangerous to hit the board at a big price in the Belmont Stakes betting odds.
No. 8 Intrepid Heart (John Velazquez, 10-1): He tried his luck within the graded-stakes ranks last time and got off to a slower start due to a stumble. Pedigree wise, he might be the best-bred horse in this field with his father Tapit the sire of three of the most recent five Belmont Stakes winners. Being lightly raced has its perks and this runner might be worth a closer look at long-shot odds, as his times and efforts have been comparable with the rest of the field.
No. 9 War of Will (Tyler Gaffalione, 2-1): He looms as the one to beat off his very impressive Preakness Stakes victory. He was positioned perfectly and took advantage of a perfect trip. If there’s a fast pace in the Belmont, it will be difficult to fend off some of the closers who gain so much from faster fractions. The price will be short as it should be, but there are more intriguing options which will likely handle the Belmont dirt distance more favorably.
No. 10 Tacitus (Jose Ortiz, 9-5): His best effort was in the Wood Memorial Stakes in early April where he worked out a perfect trip and put the leaders away at the top of the stretch. His effort in the Kentucky Derby was respectable, and it’s possible he also was hindered by the poor track with a slower-than-normal start. Look for him to be positioned just off the pace and be primed and ready for a big stretch run. Tough to ignore any runners out of Tapit, when it comes to longer-distance races or the Belmont Stakes.
BELMONT STAKES PICKS
1. Bourbon War
2. Tacitus
3. Master Fencer
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