Horse racing bettors don't have to stop at just win, place, and show wagering when it comes to making Belmont Stakes picks and predictions, and there's plenty of money to be made if you can hit the Belmont Stakes exacta, trifecta, and superfecta.
I'm taking a long look at the Belmont Stakes odds and offering my free betting picks for the 156th "Run for the Carnations," which is set for 6:41 p.m. ET tonight.
Belmont Stakes trifecta, superfecta, and exacta picks
A field of 10 will contest the Belmont, featuring Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey. However, it's Sierra Leone — the runner-up from this year's Derby — who's favored in the Belmont Stakes odds.
Exacta pick
The exacta requires the bettor to select the Top 2 finishers of a race in exact order. The minimum wager at the Belmont Stakes is $1. Bettors can also “box” an exacta, meaning the two (or more) selected Belmont Stakes horses on a ticket can finish in any order, albeit at an increased cost.
The top horse in my Belmont Stakes predictions is No. 8 Honor Marie, sitting at a juicy 12-1 on the morning line. This son of Honor Code had all kinds of trouble in the Kentucky Derby, steadying and switching lanes multiple times, but still fought on to go from 20th to eighth at the finish.
Honor Marie is a former Grade II winner and was also second in the Louisiana Derby two-back. The jockey upgrade to Florent Geroux is encouraging as well.
No. 9 Sierra Leone isn't offering much value at 9-5 in the Belmont Stakes, but he is a logical alternative and a must-use in the exotics.
Sierra Leone was beaten just a nose by Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby, and has never been worse than second in five career starts. The Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes winner will be rolling late under Flavien Prat.
Recent trends favor Honor Marie and Sierra Leone too, as two of the last three and four of the last seven Belmont winners (excluding Tiz the Law in 2020, when the Belmont was the first leg of the Triple Crown) competed in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness Stakes.
I'm looking to spice the exotics up even more with No. 4 The Wine Steward, who is 15-1 on the morning line.
He did not win the Peter Pan Stakes — the race 2023 Belmont champion Arcangelo won to prep for this event — but was a game second after finding his way to the lead a bit earlier than usual. I'm counting in the rider change to Manny Franco to help him get a more familiar stalking trip, and The Wine Steward could be ready to run a lifetime best in his third start off a layoff.
$4 exacta pick:
To win: No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Second place: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
$4 exacta pick:
To win: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Second place: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Total = $40
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Trifecta pick
The trifecta tasks the bettor with determining the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The payoff can be significantly higher than the exacta, but both the ticket cost and the risk factor increase significantly, even with a minimum wager amount of 50 cents.
I'm taking the Top 3 horses I used in my exacta plays and adding some more Belmont Stakes long shots to the mix, starting with No. 2 Resilience at 10-1.
The Wood Memorial winner outran his odds from a wide post in the Kentucky Derby, and a ground-saving journey could be just what the doctor ordered.
No. 3 Mystik Dan (5-1) peaked in the Kentucky Derby and followed it up with a solid second in the Preakness. Will another quick turnaround hurt his chances in the Belmont?
No. 5 Antiquarian (12-1) beat The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan, which was a solid comeback for him after being dealt a bad hand in the Louisiana Derby.
No. 10 Mindframe (7-2) might be biting off a bit more than he can chew in his stakes debut, and this post won't help him. Nevertheless, his speed figures are hard to ignore.
$2 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Second place: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Third place: No. 2 Resilience, No. 3 Mystik Dan, No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 5 Antiquarian, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone, No. 10 Mindframe
Total = $40
Superfecta pick
The superfecta is an even tougher wager to hit than the trifecta, as it requires the bettor to pick the first four finishers of a race in exact order. However, the potential payday can be among the highest in horse racing. The minimum wager amount is just 10 cents, making it somewhat easier to get involved.
In my primary superfecta wager, I'm betting that either Honor Marie or Sierra Leone will win, throwing The Wine Steward into the mix for second or third, and pushing the "ALL" button for fourth. As long as I get the first three horses correct, this superfecta ticket will hit no matter who runs fourth.
I'll conclude by focusing on the additional horses I highlighted in the third leg of my trifecta ticket and placing them fourth in my supplemental superfecta play.
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Second place: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Third place: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Fourth place: ALL
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Second place: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Third place: No. 4 The Wine Steward, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 Sierra Leone
Fourth place: No. 2 Resilience, No. 3 Mystik Dan, No. 5 Antiquarian, No. 10 Mindframe
Total = $44
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