Some of the best turf horses this side of the Atlantic will square off on Saturday afternoon as excitement for the Breeders' Cup odds heats up.
The Grade I, $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap headlines the Saturday program at Saratoga, and offers the winner an all-expenses-paid berth to the Breeders' Cup Mile. Meanwhile, at Colonial Downs, the Grade I Arlington Million will pit 11 Breeders' Cup Turf hopefuls against one another.
Here are my horse racing picks and predictions for what promises to be an exciting, stakes-filled Saturday.
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Fourstardave Handicap odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Saratoga Race 9
- Post time: 5:44 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmanuel | 3-1 | +300 | +300 | +400 |
| 2 | Full Screen | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 3 | My Sea Cottage | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
| 4 | Annapolis | 8-5 | +160 | +160 | +110 |
| 5 | So High | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +5,000 |
| 6 | Casa Creed | 7-5 | +140 | +140 | +200 |
| 7 | Ice Chocolat | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,600 |
Odds as of August 10, 2023.
No. 6 Casa Creed beat Annapolis fair-and-square when they faced off in the Grade III Kelso Stakes earlier in the Saratoga meet. Barring some racing luck, the former should emerge victorious once more.
Casa Creed raced three-wide and outside of Annapolis on the first turn of the Kelso, with the latter ensuring he couldn't get to the rail. Casa Creed and jockey Luis Saez never got an opportunity to save ground and fanned three to four-wide around the far turn.
Annapolis saved ground most of the way, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. couldn't wait for a seam to open on the inside and was forced to swing five-wide turning for home. But Casa Creed won by a comfortable length despite a voyage that was arguably tougher than that of Annapolis.
I foresee a fair pace for both competitors to close into once more, and both runners love Saratoga (Casa Creed is 5: 3-0-2 while Annapolis is 4: 2-2-0). On paper, history should repeat itself, but if Ortiz Jr. were to try something different strategy-wise and it works, the reverse exacta might cash.
No. 1 Emmanuel could run into the trifecta with his best effort. Though Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps off, brother Jose Ortiz will take over.
Emmanuel has won three of five starts this year, all of them graded stakes tries, but his two career flops in Grade I turf races suggest he might be a cut below the cream of the crop, even if there are some legitimate excuses to account for those efforts.
Best bet: $10 exacta 6/4, $5 exacta 4/6, $3 trifecta 6/4/1, $2 trifecta 4/6/1 ($20)
Arlington Million odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Colonial Downs Race 10
- Post time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strong Tide | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +2,500 |
| 2 | Never Explain | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +1,100 |
| 3 | Set Piece | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +500 |
| 4 | Atone | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +300 |
| 5 | Rockemperor | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +550 |
| 6 | Master Piece | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| 7 | Strong Quality | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,400 |
| 8 | Catnip | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,000 |
| 9 | Adhamo | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +550 |
| 10 | Win for the Money | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +3,300 |
| 11 | Santin | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +750 |
Odds as of August 10, 2023.
No. 8 Catnip (8-1) is a son of Kitten's Joy that is on the rise and will be my top selection in the Arlington Million.
Catnip was last seen getting nailed in deep stretch by the venerable Therapist in the Grade I United Nations at Monmouth Park. There was no shame in losing to that rival, especially at the trying 1 3/8-mile trip.
Shortening up a furlong on Saturday could be just what the doctor ordered for Catnip, who had won three in a row prior to his recent defeat. Rivals that Catnip beat in that stretch include No. 2 Never Explain (6-1), who we'll get to in a moment, and Fourstardave contender Emmanuel.
No. 3 Set Piece (6-1) is the most logical threat to the top choice. The deep-closing son of Dansili was last seen rallying for third despite a six-wide trip in the Grade II Wise Dan at Ellis Park. That was his second third-place check of the year, and it sandwiches a win in the Grade III Arlington Stakes at Churchill Downs, albeit over only five others.
Trainer Brad Cox has kept Set Piece in races between eight and nine furlongs for a while now, but the 10-furlong trip in the Arlington Million could prove to be right up the alley of this multiple-graded stakes winner.
Never Explain has done little wrong over his last five starts, winning three times — including a score in the Grade III Dinner Party Stakes over Emmanuel — and earning black type in the Grade III Monmouth Stakes (a half-length behind Catnip) and the Grade II Bowling Green at 11 furlongs.
Just like Catnip, I expect Never Explain to be sharp while scaling back in distance.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 2/3/8, $2 exacta box 3/8, $4 win 8 ($20)
Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic Schedule
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| February Stakes* | February 19 | Tokyo Racecourse (Japan) | Lemon Pop |
| Kentucky Derby | May 6 | Churchill Downs | Mage |
| Preakness Stakes | May 20 | Pimlico | National Treasure |
| Belmont Stakes | June 10 | Belmont Park | Arcangelo |
| Metropolitan Handicap | June 10 | Belmont Park | Cody's Wish |
| Stephen Foster Stakes* | July 1 | Ellis Park | West Will Power |
| Haskell Stakes* | July 22 | Monmouth Park | Geaux Rocket Ride |
| Whitney Stakes* | August 5 | Saratoga | White Abarrio |
| Juddmonte International Stakes (turf)* | August 23 | York (UK) | TBD |
| Travers Stakes | August 26 | Saratoga | TBD |
| Pacific Classic* | September 2 | Del Mar | TBD |
| Jockey Club Gold Cup* | September 2 | Saratoga | TBD |
| Pennsylvania Derby | September 23 | Parx | TBD |
| Awesome Again Stakes* | September 30 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Lukas Classic | September 30 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic
