Horse Racing Picks, Odds, and Best Bets for August 12: Can Casa Creed Keep It Going In Fourstardave?

Some of the best turf horses this side of the Atlantic will square off on Saturday afternoon as excitement for the Breeders' Cup odds heats up.

The Grade I, $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap headlines the Saturday program at Saratoga, and offers the winner an all-expenses-paid berth to the Breeders' Cup Mile. Meanwhile, at Colonial Downs, the Grade I Arlington Million will pit 11 Breeders' Cup Turf hopefuls against one another.

Here are my horse racing picks and predictions for what promises to be an exciting, stakes-filled Saturday.

Fourstardave Handicap odds, prediction and best bet

• Race: Saratoga Race 9
• Post time: 5:44 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Post	Horse	Track odds
1	Emmanuel	3-1	+300	+300	+400
2	Full Screen	30-1	+3,000	+3,000	+2,500
3	My Sea Cottage	30-1	+3,000	+3,000	+3,300
4	Annapolis	8-5	+160	+160	+110
5	So High	20-1	+2,000	+2,000	+5,000
6	Casa Creed	7-5	+140	+140	+200
7	Ice Chocolat	8-1	+800	+800	+1,600

Odds as of August 10, 2023.

No. 6 Casa Creed beat Annapolis fair-and-square when they faced off in the Grade III Kelso Stakes earlier in the Saratoga meet. Barring some racing luck, the former should emerge victorious once more.

Casa Creed raced three-wide and outside of Annapolis on the first turn of the Kelso, with the latter ensuring he couldn't get to the rail. Casa Creed and jockey Luis Saez never got an opportunity to save ground and fanned three to four-wide around the far turn.

Annapolis saved ground most of the way, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. couldn't wait for a seam to open on the inside and was forced to swing five-wide turning for home. But Casa Creed won by a comfortable length despite a voyage that was arguably tougher than that of Annapolis. 

I foresee a fair pace for both competitors to close into once more, and both runners love Saratoga (Casa Creed is 5: 3-0-2 while Annapolis is 4: 2-2-0). On paper, history should repeat itself, but if Ortiz Jr. were to try something different strategy-wise and it works, the reverse exacta might cash. 

No. 1 Emmanuel could run into the trifecta with his best effort. Though Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps off, brother Jose Ortiz will take over. 

Emmanuel has won three of five starts this year, all of them graded stakes tries, but his two career flops in Grade I turf races suggest he might be a cut below the cream of the crop, even if there are some legitimate excuses to account for those efforts.

Best bet: $10 exacta 6/4, $5 exacta 4/6, $3 trifecta 6/4/1, $2 trifecta 4/6/1 ($20) 

Arlington Million odds, prediction and best bet

• Race: Colonial Downs Race 10
• Post time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: FanDuel TV

Post	Horse	Track odds
1	Strong Tide	15-1	+1,500	+1,500	+2,500
2	Never Explain	6-1	+600	+600	+1,100
3	Set Piece	6-1	+600	+600	+500
4	Atone	7-2	+350	+350	+300
5	Rockemperor	5-1	+500	+500	+550
6	Master Piece	12-1	+1,200	+1,200	+1,200
7	Strong Quality	12-1	+1,200	+1,200	+1,400
8	Catnip	8-1	+800	+800	+1,000
9	Adhamo	10-1	+1,000	+1,000	+550
10	Win for the Money	20-1	+2,000	+2,000	+3,300
11	Santin	8-1	+800	+800	+750

Odds as of August 10, 2023.

No. 8 Catnip (8-1) is a son of Kitten's Joy that is on the rise and will be my top selection in the Arlington Million.

Catnip was last seen getting nailed in deep stretch by the venerable Therapist in the Grade I United Nations at Monmouth Park. There was no shame in losing to that rival, especially at the trying 1 3/8-mile trip.

Shortening up a furlong on Saturday could be just what the doctor ordered for Catnip, who had won three in a row prior to his recent defeat. Rivals that Catnip beat in that stretch include No. 2 Never Explain (6-1), who we'll get to in a moment, and Fourstardave contender Emmanuel.

No. 3 Set Piece (6-1) is the most logical threat to the top choice. The deep-closing son of Dansili was last seen rallying for third despite a six-wide trip in the Grade II Wise Dan at Ellis Park. That was his second third-place check of the year, and it sandwiches a win in the Grade III Arlington Stakes at Churchill Downs, albeit over only five others.

Trainer Brad Cox has kept Set Piece in races between eight and nine furlongs for a while now, but the 10-furlong trip in the Arlington Million could prove to be right up the alley of this multiple-graded stakes winner.

Never Explain has done little wrong over his last five starts, winning three times — including a score in the Grade III Dinner Party Stakes over Emmanuel — and earning black type in the Grade III Monmouth Stakes (a half-length behind Catnip) and the Grade II Bowling Green at 11 furlongs.

Just like Catnip, I expect Never Explain to be sharp while scaling back in distance.

Best bet: $2 exacta box 2/3/8, $2 exacta box 3/8, $4 win 8 ($20)

Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic Schedule

*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic

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