There will be plenty of intrigue surrounding the Breeders' Cup odds this weekend when Saratoga hosts the Grade I Alabama Stakes and Woodbine holds the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown in the King's Plate Stakes.
The Alabama Stakes will be a key stepping stone on the way to the Breeders' Cup Distaff, while the prestigious King's Plate could put favored Kalik on a logical path to one of the Breeders' Cup turf races.
Below is my analysis of the contenders plus my wagering advice for each race.
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Alabama Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Date: August 19
- Race: Saratoga Race 9
- Post time: 5:45 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacred Wish | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 2 | Wet Paint | 2-1 | +200 | +200 | +275 |
| 3 | Julia Shining | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +600 |
| 4 | Sabra Tuff | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +10,000 |
| 5 | Fireline | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,000 |
| 6 | Chocolate Gelato | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +800 |
| 7 | Gambling Girl | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 8 | Randomized | 9-2 | +450 | +450 | +600 |
| 9 | Taxed | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 10 | Defining Purpose | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +800 |
Odds as of August 17, 2023.
No. 2 Wet Paint (2-1 morning-line favorite) is a logical choice for Alabama after winning the local prep for this in the Grade I CCA Oaks (a prestigious race in and of itself). It was a solid comeback for the daughter of Blame, who suffered two straight defeats after winning three straight stakes at Oaklawn.
However, those two defeats were forgivable, as Wet Paint was still a decent fourth in the Kentucky Oaks before having race dynamics completely against her in the Monomoy Girl down at Ellis Park two starts ago.
The Brad Cox trainee rallied into a moderate pace for the 1 1/8-mile CCA Oaks. Stretching out another furlong at Alabama should be right up her alley, and she has one of the best jockeys at Saratoga in Flavien Prat.
No. 5 Fireline (12-1) could be the value of the race. Also trained by Brown, she won her second career start as a two-year-old by daylight at Aqueduct, then came off the bench to beat winners at Belmont in a highly-rated effort. She faltered as the favorite in the Delaware Oaks, but the Delaware Park oval is known to be quirky as some horses simply can't negotiate it well.
Fireline's most recent work at Saratoga was strong, and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride.
No. 8 Randomized (9-2) owns some of the fastest speed figures in the field, but her lone try vs. stakes foes in the Grade I Acorn was a total flop. She seems like a "need the lead" type, but fortunately for this Chad Brown pupil, there's not much early speed signed on. It's discouraging, however, that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps off her in favor of No. 7 Gambling Girl. Joel Rosario has the assignment instead.
No. 3 Julia Shining (5-1) will be my final throw-in. She's not in a great spot in terms of preparation, but if any trainer can pull this off, it's Todd Pletcher.
Julia Shining was last seen rallying for third in the Grade I Ashland at Keeneland back in April. Being by Curlin out of the A.P. Indy mare Dreaming of Julia, the 10-furlong trip should be right in her wheelhouse, and the return drills are excellent. Luis Saez retains the assignment.
Best bet: $3 exacta 2/3,5,8, $1 exacta box 2/5/8, $1 exacta box 2/8, $3 win 5 ($20)
King's Plate Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Date: August 20
- Race: Woodbine Race 10
- Post time: 5:39 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanley House | 4-1 | +400 | +400 | +500 |
| 2 | Elysian Field | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +600 |
| 3 | Philip My Dear | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| 4 | Twin City | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| 5 | Morstachy's | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +10,000 |
| 6 | Kalik | 3-1 | +300 | +300 | +275 |
| 7 | Velocitor | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
| 8 | Wickenheiser | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,000 |
| 9 | Silent Miracle | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| 10 | Midnight in Malibu | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 11 | Touch'n Ride | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,000 |
| 12 | Cool Kiss | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 13 | Paramount Prince | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| 14 | Twowaycrossing | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 15 | Kaukokaipuu | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +450 |
| 16 | El Cohete | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +3,300 |
| 17 | Moon Landing | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,500 |
| 18* | Enjoythesilent | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
| 19* | Runaway Charlie | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +10,000 |
Odds as of August 17, 2023.
* The horse is an also-eligible and will only run if there are early scratches from the body of the field.
No. 6 Kalik (3-1, morning-line favorite) might be a short price in a large field for the King's Plate, but he's a major threat to take this race in his synthetic track debut.
Kalik acted up behind the gate and didn't have a clean trip in the Grade I Belmont Derby when last seen, and he saw his three-race win streak go by the boards as a result. However, trainer Chad Brown puts this son of Collected back on Lasix and has him working well for his return. Brown is also firing at 38% with horses on synthetic surfaces this year. Woodbine leading rider Kazushi Kimura has the call.
No. 11 Touch'n Ride (12-1) could have the most potential in the field, having only raced twice. After checking in third on debut on turf, the son of Candy Ride took to the Tapeta with aplomb, drawing off to beat six others by over five lengths. A repeat of that effort could put Touch'n Ride back in the winner's circle at a square price.
No. 1 Stanley House (4-1), No. 2 Elysian Field (8-1), and No. 13 Paramount Prince (10-1) are all a threat to hit the board here.
Stanley House was too far back to make much impact in the Plate Trial last time out, but he won two of his three prior races with one runner-up result. Castellano ships in for the mount.
Elysian Field won the Woodbine Oaks, and especially after Moira pulled off the Oaks-Plate double last year, she should get plenty of attention. The dazzling turn of foot she showed in the Oaks under Sahin Civaci makes her a player on Sunday.
Paramount Price — who won the Plate Trial by five lengths — merits respect too. He should be up front early under Patrick Husbands.
Best bet: $4 exacta 6/1,2,11,13, $4 win 11 ($20)
Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic Schedule
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| February Stakes* | February 19 | Tokyo Racecourse (Japan) | Lemon Pop |
| Kentucky Derby | May 6 | Churchill Downs | Mage |
| Preakness Stakes | May 20 | Pimlico | National Treasure |
| Belmont Stakes | June 10 | Belmont Park | Arcangelo |
| Metropolitan Handicap | June 10 | Belmont Park | Cody's Wish |
| Stephen Foster Stakes* | July 1 | Ellis Park | West Will Power |
| Haskell Stakes* | July 22 | Monmouth Park | Geaux Rocket Ride |
| Whitney Stakes* | August 5 | Saratoga | White Abarrio |
| Juddmonte International Stakes (turf)* | August 23 | York (UK) | TBD |
| Travers Stakes | August 26 | Saratoga | TBD |
| Pacific Classic* | September 2 | Del Mar | TBD |
| Jockey Club Gold Cup* | September 2 | Saratoga | TBD |
| Pennsylvania Derby | September 23 | Parx | TBD |
| Awesome Again Stakes* | September 30 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Lukas Classic | September 30 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic
