How to Hit the Kentucky Derby Trifecta on a $150 Budget

Today marks a very special rendition of the Kentucky Derby in 2024, as we will witness the 150th renewal of the country's most famous horse race.

I'm celebrating by trying to hit it big in the Kentucky Derby odds and playing the 2024 Kentucky Derby trifecta on a $150 budget. 

Kentucky Derby 150 trifecta picks

The trifecta wager involves the bettor correctly selecting the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The minimum wager amount for every combination is 50 cents, but multiple combinations can be played on the same ticket, multiplying the total cost. 

Before formulating your trifecta tickets, the most important thing to do is narrow down which Kentucky Derby horses you believe are capable of finishing in the Top 3. The Kentucky Derby post positions can play a small part in that, but current form and pedigree are the more vital handicapping factors. 

No. 17 Fierceness (5-2) looks like a must-use for trifecta players based on his highly-rated romp in the Florida Derby last time out. Runner-up Catalytic was left over 13 lengths in his wake. Fierceness' effort in the Holy Bull Stakes two starts ago was poor, but his slow start that day was a legitimate excuse, as was his layoff line following his big win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

While Fierceness figures to be in close attendance to a lively Kentucky Derby pace, No. 2 Sierra Leone (3-1) will almost certainly be far behind it.

The Chad Brown trainee makes up for his lack of natural early speed with his incredible ability to outlast his rivals and close ground in the stretch. The son of Gun Runner is undefeated in two starts since a hard-luck loss in the 2023 Remsen Stakes, cruising home in both the Risen Star Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes.

No. 4 Catching Freedom (8-1) will also be charging from far back in the Kentucky Derby. He negotiated 1 3/16th-miles in the Louisiana Derby, and no other horse in this race has won going that far before. Though the Fair Grounds feature hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1996, the New Orleans contingent of three-year-olds seemed quite strong. 

That New Orleans contingent also featured No. 7 Honor Marie (20-1), who was a rallying second when last seen in the Louisiana Derby. His Risen Star try was less than encouraging, but it can be forgiven following a layoff after his win in Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in late 2023.

No. 8 Just a Touch (10-1) graduated from the maiden ranks in a Fair Grounds sprint race before stepping up in class. He's winless in two starts since, but the lightly-raced Brad Cox charge demonstrated talent and grit in placing in both the Gotham Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes.

Just a Touch is bred to run all day as he's by Triple Crown odds winner Justify out of a Tapit mare.

Those are my five favorite horses in this year's Kentucky Derby, but since I've got a fairly large trifecta budget to work with, I'll throw in some other runners that merit a long look underneath.

No. 11 Forever Young (10-1) is perfect through five starts, taking the Saudi Derby and the UAE Derby this year in order to make his way into the field. Japan has been on the rise on the international stage over the last few years, but they've yet to make an impact in the Triple Crown odds. We also have yet to see a UAE Derby runner hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, but this son of Real Steel might be different.

No. 15 Domestic Product (30-1) needs to make up ground in the speed figure department to have a shot at the Derby trifecta, but improvement is far from impossible. The late-running son of Practical Joke has endured two sluggish paces this year, running second in the Holy Bull before getting his head down first in the Tampa Bay Derby. Multiple Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has landed on this Chad Brown trainee, and he should get plenty of pace to run at.

No. 21 Epic Ride (30-1) drew in thanks to the scratch of Encino, who was a realistic Derby threat that only beat Epic Ride by a length in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes two-back. Epic Ride made his dirt debut when last seen, running third almost all the way around the track in the Blue Grass Stakes. The post won't help, but he's not that far below some of the top contenders here.

$6 trifecta pick:

• To win: No. 17 Fierceness
• Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch 
• Third place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch

$4 trifecta pick:

• To win: No. 17 Fierceness
• Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone
• Third place: No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch, No. 11 Forever Young, No. 15 Domestic Product, No. 21 Epic Ride

$2 trifecta pick:

• To win: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness
• Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness
• Third place: No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch, No. 11 Forever Young, No. 15 Domestic Product, No. 21 Epic Ride

$2 trifecta pick:

• To win: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness
• Second place: No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch, No. 11 Forever Young, No. 15 Domestic Product, No. 21 Epic Ride
• Third place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness

$0.50 trifecta pick:

• To win: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch 
• Second place: No. 17 Fierceness
• Third place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch

Total = $150

Kentucky Derby betting FAQs

Pages related to this topic