The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby has arrived, and the first leg of the Triple Crown once again offers horse racing bettors an incredible wagering opportunity.
You could play it safe and simply make Kentucky Derby Win, Place and Show picks, but there are plenty of other wagers that could yield a much bigger payday.
I've evaluated the Kentucky Derby odds and am ready to make my best 2024 Kentucky Derby trifecta, superfecta, and exacta picks.
Kentucky Derby trifecta, superfecta, and exacta picks
Exacta pick
In order to hit the exacta, the bettor must select the Top 2 finishers of a race in order. The minimum wager is usually $1, but at Churchill Downs, the $1 straight exacta is not allowed. Only $1 part-wheels (e.g. 1/2,3) or boxes (where the bettor’s Kentucky Derby horses can finish first and second in any order, albeit at an increased cost) are permitted.
No. 17 Fierceness (5-2) is the most likely winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby despite drawing wide in the Kentucky Derby post positions. His win in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile was impressive, but he outdid himself by romping in the Florida Derby to punch his ticket to the first Saturday in May.
I'm willing to forgive Fierceness' effort in the Holy Bull Stakes, as it came off a layoff and he suffered a very poor start.
No. 2 Sierra Leone (3-1) might just be good enough to run the top pick down late — it could just be a matter of pace. The son of Gun Runner has lost only once in four starts, and it came in the Remsen Stakes at age two when he spotted many lengths as well as a gold rail to Dornoch, who wired the field.
Sierra Leone closed from well back yet won by open lengths in both the Risen Star Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes to prep for the Kentucky Derby.
Pari-mutually speaking, I'm throwing No. 4 Catching Freedom (8-1), No. 7 Honor Marie (20-1), and No. 8 Just a Touch (10-1) under a blanket in my principal exacta play, as I think any of those runners can land second if they fire their best shots.
Catching Freedom won the 1 3/16th-mile Louisiana Derby to prep for this, and he has arguably the best jockey in the country aboard in Flavien Prat. I like him just a bit more than the other two and will have some saver exactas with him on top.
Honor Marie was second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby but owns a key Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes score over Churchill Downs. Just a Touch has just one win to date but earned solid speed figures in both the Gotham Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes, placing second each time, to earn his way into the "Run for the Roses."
$4 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 17 Fierceness
- Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch
$2 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom
- Second place: No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch, No. 17 Fierceness
$1 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness
- Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness
Total = $30
Kentucky Derby picks and predictions
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Trifecta pick
The trifecta tasks the bettor with picking the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The payoff can be substantially higher than the exacta, but so too are the potential ticket costs and risk factors.
One benefit horseplayers have when it comes to the trifecta compared to the exacta or superfecta for the Kentucky Derby is the minimum wager amount, which in this case is 50 cents. That enables the bettor to include more combinations while keeping costs at a reasonable level.
I'll keep my trifecta costs under control by leaning more heavily on Fierceness to finish first. I'll do a saver play involving Sierra Leone finishing first and Fierceness second with no other horses in the Top 2 rungs.
$2 trifecta pick:
- To win: No. 17 Fierceness
- Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch
- Third place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch
$1 trifecta pick:
- To win: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness
- Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 17 Fierceness
- Third place: No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch
Total = $30
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Superfecta pick
The superfecta is often one of the best-paying wagers at the track, but it's also among the trickiest to hit as the bettor must select the Top 4 finishers of a race in exact order. The superfecta minimum for the Derby is $1, and that makes constructing an affordable ticket that much more difficult, but it also increases the chances for a huge mutuel.
A five-horse superfecta box at the $1 minimum costs a prohibitive $120, so I'm looking to keep things simple in this pool and trying to maximize the payout in the event Fierceness does come through for trainer Todd Pletcher's third career Derby score.
$1 Superfecta pick:
- To win: No. 17 Fierceness
- Second place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch
- Third place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch
- Fourth place: No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 7 Honor Marie, No. 8 Just a Touch
Total = $24
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby?
Several legal horse racing betting sites allow you to wager on the Kentucky Derby, but not every sportsbook is allowed to offer odds on the Derby. Our guide outlines the best Kentucky Derby betting sites available in your area.
Which states have legal betting on the Kentucky Derby?
While sports bettors can enjoy some form of online or retail wagering in 34 states (+ DC), horse racing enthusiasts have even more legal options. Refer to our list of legal states for betting on horse racing to see if horse race betting is legal in your state via the FanDuel Racing app.
Canada (excluding Ontario)
Almost all sports betting sites offer fixed-odds betting on horse racing. Check out the best sports betting sites in Canada or sign up now with one of our top partners, bet365, and earn up to $200 in bet credits!
Ontario
Following the changes to the iGaming regulations on April 4, 2022, horse racing betting is no longer available at sportsbooks. Those in Ontario who are looking to bet on the Kentucky Derby will need to sign up at one of Woodbine's two online offerings, HPIbet and Dark Horse Bets.
Kentucky Derby betting FAQs
Yes. There are a number of legal and authentic online racing books, which allow you to withdraw funds directly to your bank account.
There was a record $165.5 million bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby. That was a 10 percent increase from 2018 which held the previous record of $149.9 million.
The lowest Win bet you can make is for $2. For the exotics, depending on where you play, many offer a 0.10 Superfecta wager at some betting locations.
You can bet on the upcoming Kentucky Derby as early as the day after the prior year's Derby. As the Kentucky Derby is limited to three-year-olds only, the early favorites are the horses having standout two-year-old campaigns.
You can place your wagers until the gates open. Once you hear, “and they're off" the window is officially closed. Soak up as much information in the post parade and loading the gate as you can. Knowledge is power.
With a Superfecta bet you are selecting the top four finishers in the race in order.
