Canada's version of the Kentucky Derby is set for Friday as 13 of the country's best three-year-olds will line up for the 165th renewal of the $1 million King's Plate at Woodbine less than a week after it was postponed due to bad weather.
Plate Trial winner My Boy Prince is favored to take the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, but Grade III Marine Stakes victor Essex Serpent figures to offer a real challenge to his Mark Casse stablemate. And there's always the possibility that a long shot upsets the apple cart.
My free betting picks will try to squeeze some value out of this year's King's Plate on August 23.
King's Plate odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Woodbine Race 9
- Post time: 5:34 p.m. ET
- TV: Rogers Sportsnet
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jokestar | 20-1 | +2,000 |
| 2 | Rafaroo | 8-1 | +800 |
| 3 | Essex Serpent | 2-1 | +200 |
| 4 | Caitlinhergrtness | 12-1 | +1,200 |
| 5 | Midnight Mascot | 10-1 | +1,000 |
| 6 | Friendly Ghost | 30-1 | +3,000 |
| 7 | My Boy Prince | 7-5 | +160 |
| 8 | Pierre | 20-1 | +2,000 |
| 9 | Thor's Cause | 50-1 | +5,000 |
| 10 | Bedard | 30-1 | +3,000 |
| 11 | Roar of the Crowd | 50-1 | +5,000 |
| 12 | No More Options | 30-1 | +3,000 |
| 13 | Vitality | 20-1 | +2,000 |
Odds as of 8-21
No. 7 My Boy Prince (7-5, morning-line favorite) looks to run his record on the all-weather main track at Woodbine to 6-for-7 in this Friday's King's Plate, and I think he'll be hard to beat with a clean trip.
My Boy Prince was off at least a length slow and was shuffled back to last in the first few strides of the Plate Trial Stakes last month. Despite the poor beginning, the son of Cairo Prince was able to persevere and beat No. 2 Rafaroo (8-1) by over a length.
That race spoke volumes about My Boy Prince's ability to get the 1 1/4-mile distance of the King's Plate, something that's a mystery for every runner in the field, as jockey Sahin Civaci was unable to save ground on either turn after the bad getaway from the gate. It also suggests that he can manage traffic trouble, something that's often unavoidable in races with big fields like the King's Plate.
No. 3 Essex Serpent (2-1) is the main danger to the top pick after beating open-company runners in the Grade III Marine Stakes here going 1 1/16th-miles. He was defeated in handy fashion by My Boy Prince when they met on June 9, but Essex Serpent encountered a slow start of his own and had to work hard just to rally for second in that sprint event.
Essex Serpent got back to business in the Marine by making every step a winning one. In his maiden breaker, he was able to stalk the pace and pounce late. The son of Honor Code could still have more to give in just his fourth career start, and distance doesn't seem to be an issue for him. Woodbine Hall of Famer Patrick Husbands has the call.
No. 4 Caitlinhergrtness (12-1) is the lone filly in the field and was last seen losing the lead late in the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks. It's possible she won't get the 10-furlong trip today, but it's also possible jockey Rafael Hernandez just moved too early with her last time out. Recent works for trainer Kevin Attard are strong, and so is the morning-line price.
Rafaroo has only raced twice and is still looking for his first career victory. That might be hard to come by in this field, but the speed figures he's run combined with a courageous second-place result in the Plate Trial suggests that he can at least hit the board on Friday.
There's not much value to be had in playing either Essex Serpent or My Boy Prince just to win, and I'm also concerned that the exacta box with those runners finishing Top 2 in any order will also be an underlay. Instead, I'll look to the trifecta market and lean on those two runners exclusively in the win slot. Rafaroo and Caitlinhergrtness will be the two horses I favor in the second and third-place rungs. I'll also put a small amount on Caitlinhergrtness to win as a saver bet.
King's Plate win pick: My Boy Prince (+160 at bet365)
Best bet: $1 trifecta 3,7/2,3,4,7/2,3,4,7, $1 trifecta 7/2,3,4/2,3,4, $2 trifecta 7/3/2,4, $2 win 4 ($24)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Recent King's Plate winners
| Year | Horse | Final odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Paramount Prince | 8-1 |
| 2022 | Moira* | 9-5 |
| 2021 | Safe Conduct | 3-1 |
| 2020 | Mighty Heart | 13-1 |
| 2019 | One Bad Boy | 3-1 |
| 2018 | Wonder Gadot* | 2-1 |
| 2017 | Holy Helena* | 2-1 |
| 2016 | Sir Dudley Digges | 15-1 |
| 2015 | Shaman Ghost | 3-1 |
| 2014 | Lexie Lou* | 3-1 |
*indicates filly
