With less than two months remaining in the NFL’s regular season, the race for league MVP has heated up and caused great debate among analysts and fans.
At U.S. online sportsbooks, a clear NFL MVP odds favorite has emerged coming out of Week 11, and it’s a player who’s never won the award. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen tops the odds list in the futures market everywhere.
The seven-year veteran is as low as +125 at FanDuel after he handed the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season on Sunday and got the Bills to 9-2 for the first time since 1992.
Allen threw one touchdown and ran for another on a highlight-reel play that helped catapult his MVP candidacy.
JOSH. ALLEN. GREATNESS.
— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
📺: #KCvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/3HyIoDCaAC
Allen went from +300 to +130 at ESPN BET, and since Sunday morning, PENN Entertainment’s sports betting operator reported that 28.4% of all wagers in the MVP market and 63.8% of the handle are on the Buffalo QB.
The +150 odds leader at BetMGM, Allen is getting 16.3% of the handle, the highest among all players listed.
The contenders
Allen, however, isn’t in the top 15 in passing yards per game category or top 10 in QB rating.
DraftKings told Covers this week that despite Allen being a +150 favorite, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (+200) is getting 13% of the handle and 11% of the bets while Detroit’s Jared Goff (+600) has seen more bets (10%) and the same percentage of money (11%) as Allen.
Jackson is the reigning MVP and two-time winner of the award. The Ravens are 7-4 and in second place in the AFC North behind Pittsburgh while showcasing the No. 1-ranked offense in the NFL.
Goff has the Lions at 9-1 and third in the league in offense. The Detroit QB is the biggest liability at BetMGM and is getting 11.5% of the tickets, the highest among all candidates at the sportsbook.
At ESPN, he went from +3,000 to +650 and has 24.7% of the bets and 13.1%, the second-most behind Allen in the MVP market.
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is fourth in handle (9%) and wagers (7%) at DraftKings with odds of +1,300 to win MVP. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow (+2,000) and Houston’s C.J. Stroud (+650) have both gotten 6% of the handle in the futures market.
There are even some long-shot bets (5% of the handle, 5% of the tickets) on Green Bay’s Jordan Love (+6,000).
Other markets
The Offensive Player of the Year market saw a shift in Week 11 at ESPN BET. Ravens running back Derrick Henry was the leader in odds at +110 but moved to +140. Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley hurdled Henry and now has the shortest odds at +135 to win the award.
In the Offensive Rookie of the Year future, Denver quarterback Bo Nix went from +1,200 before the Broncos thrashed the Atlanta Falcons to +450 after at ESPN BET.
DraftKings has Nix listed at +300, behind only favorite Jayden Daniels. The Washington Commanders QB leads the market with 25% of both the bets and the handle. Nix is getting 15% of the handle and 11% of the wagers, behind Daniels and Chicago’s Caleb Williams.
A bettor in MI wagered $100 on Bo Nix to win MVP (+100000) 😳
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) November 19, 2024
Potential win: $100K pic.twitter.com/FVgz7o99lE
BetMGM has Daniels at -600, but Nix is the biggest liability with 25.1% of the tickets and 27.7% of the money.
