Sportsbooks rarely pull for favorites, but in the case of the NBA futures market, that’s exactly what’s happening at BetMGM.
Key takeaways
- BetMGM’s biggest liabilities in the futures market are the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors.
- Detroit Pistons-N.Y. Knicks is one of the tightest first-round series in terms of splits.
- The Orlando Magic are the most-bet spread team in Game 1 at BetMGM.
The two teams with the best odds to win the pro basketball league title are the Oklahoma City Thunder at +185 and the Boston Celtics at +200. Heading into the NBA’s playoffs' first round Saturday, BetMGM needs both to succeed.
“Lakers and Warriors are the biggest liabilities to win the NBA Championship,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “As a result, the sportsbook gets to cheer for the Thunder and Celtics, both favorites to win their respective conferences.”
The Thunder are listed at -140 to capture the West, but the Lakers have a higher ticket count, while Golden State is the biggest liability with +1,400 odds. The Celtics are -145 to win the East, but the Cleveland Cavaliers have a market-leading 34.3% of bets, while the Pistons are the conference's biggest liability.
At ESPN BET, the Lakers lead all teams to win the NBA championship, with 15.9% of the bets and 19.2% of the handle. The Celtics are second at 15.5% of the tickets and 17.6% of the money, followed by the Thunder, Cavs, and Nuggets.
“Although (the Thunder) are the favs and have the league’s best record, they come in at number 3 so far for overall tickets, though they are rising by the day for support at current prices,” a bet365 spokesperson told Covers Friday.
First-round action
While the two top seeds, the Thunder and Cavaliers, await their opponents following Friday’s final two play-in games, bettors had time to pick through the other first-round series.
The biggest disparity in betting splits at BetMGM is the Celtics-Magic showdown. Orlando saw 83% of the bets while Boston had 80% of the handle. At ESPN BET, the Celtics dominated both categories with 83.3% of the bets and 92.3% of the handle. The most popular exact-games bet was Boston, four games to one.
One of the tightest series at ESPN BET is Pistons-Knicks, with New York getting 53.1% of the bets and 53.6% of the tickets. BetMGM players, however, put down 90% of the tickets and 88% of the money on the Knicks, at -425 to win the series.
“Price has held firm since open, and the Knicks are, by no surprise, the popular pick,” bet365 said. “However, (the Pistons) are live dogs here, and +300 series winner sees approximately 27% of all plays, not bad for a +300 dog.”
Another close one has the Denver Nuggets getting 52.9% of the handle, but 57.1% of the tickets are on the L.A. Clippers, who are -120 to advance past Denver at ESPN BET.
The Lakers are -190 to move past the Minnesota Timberwolves at BetMGM, which had 65% of the tickets on the Lakers but a whopping 90% of the handle. At ESPN BET, the most-bet outcome was Lakers 4-2.
Opener of LAL -180 now lays -200, implying a 67% chance of winning, though the action sees it much more decidedly towards the Lakers, with approximately 79% of all series winner plays backing them, according to bet365.
A pair of underdogs, the Milwaukee Bucks and Houston Rockets, had a vast majority of bets and handle at BetMGM to win their respective series over the Warriors (-165) and Indiana Pacers (-120).
Game 1 splits
The first round kicks off Saturday with the Bucks as 5.5-point underdogs in Game 1. The Pacers had 60% of the handle but 35% of the tickets at DraftKings. BetMGM also saw a split with 54% of the bets on Milwaukee and 57% of the money on Indiana.
The Nuggets (-2.5) dominated BetMGM's ticket count and money with over 70% in both, but bettors at DraftKings put 59% of the tickets and just 52% of the money on Denver.
BetMGM reported split action in Game 1 for Pistons-Knicks. Detroit saw 61% of the bets and led all Game 1 teams in moneyline tickets at +225. New York (-6.5) received 69% of the money. As a 7-point favorite at DraftKings, the Knicks had 72% of the money and 64% of the bets.
Saturday's final game features the Lakers as 4-point favorites at DK, with 62% of the bets and 58% of the money on Los Angeles. BetMGM saw more than 70% of tickets and handle favor the Lakers.
The Magic, who play in Boston Sunday, are the most-bet spread team in tickets at BetMGM.
