The boxing match between legend Mike Tyson and influencer Jake Paul isn’t just big for live streaming service Netflix. Friday’s bout is turning into a huge draw for sportsbooks as well.
“We have seen substantial action on the fight already and expect it to be a heavily-bet event given the long lead time and star power both bring to the table,” DraftKings' director of sports Johnny Avello recently told Covers.
The eight-round fight (at two minutes each) with 14-ounce boxing gloves in Arlington, Texas, was originally scheduled for July 20 but postponed to this week after Tyson, 58, had an ulcer flareup.
The extra buildup has allowed sports betting operators to take in more wagers on Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson odds and allow the betting market to figure out what it wants to do with this fight.
“While Tyson has been training and looks good, he is still 58 years old,” Avello said. “Jake Paul on the other hand is 27, in excellent shape, and has decent experience in the ring, which is why he is the heavy favorite.”
Action on the underdog
Paul, who originally became popular for his YouTube channel, is listed at BetMGM as a -190 favorite after opening at -275 shortly after the fight was announced in March. This is his first heavyweight bout.
Tyson, the former heavyweight champion and retired professional boxer, has seen the majority of the action, getting 68% of the handle and 76% of the tickets as the +188 underdog at BetMGM.
At one time, Tyson was listed at +275, but bets have continued to roll in on “Iron Mike.”
Paul owns the second-most bet boxing match in BetMGM history, and the sportsbook is expecting more from Friday's event.
"We expect the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight to be the most bet on boxing match in BetMGM history," senior trader Alex Rella said. "Bettors want to see Paul get knocked out and love Tyson as an underdog. The book will be rooting for Paul to win."
DraftKings reported that 69% of the handle and 61% of the wagers are on Tyson. It’s an even larger split at FanDuel, which told Covers that Tyson’s getting 91% of the tickets and 71% of the money.
How could the bout go?
Caesars Sportsbook told Covers this week that just 9% of the tickets and 23% of the handle is on Paul, who’s boasting a 10-1 record with seven knockouts. Bettors aren’t counting on youth being an advantage, but Caesars' lead combat sports oddsmaker Brandon Yaeger thinks otherwise if Tyson can’t get Paul down early.
“I anticipate Mike Tyson will make this fight competitive for the first four rounds where his power will be a factor,” Yaeger said. “After that, I think he will be too gassed, and his age will start to show on the back half of the fight. Jake Paul has shown that even though he's not the most technical boxer, he does carry some power in his hands. With that, it leads me to believe a ref will have a short leash on the damage they will allow Tyson to take due to his age and health concerns. I'd think this could lead to a late-round stoppage by Jake Paul.”
Popular props
Longevity in the bout could very well be key. Tyson, who’s compiled a 50-6 record all-time, hasn’t won a boxing match since 2003. Friday will mark his first appearance in the ring since he took on Roy Jones Jr. in an exhibition in 2020.
That isn’t stopping bettors from loading up on the former champ’s props. BetMGM said Tyson to win by KO/TKO or disqualification at +275 is the most-bet fight prop, followed by Tyson to win on points at +1,000. He’s also listed a +1,400 to win the first round.
Paul, meanwhile, has been a big draw for sportsbooks in the past. BetMGM said his fight against Nate Diaz in August 2023 was the second-most wagered boxing match in the sportsbook’s history. Paul, who’s co-founder of microbetting and daily fantasy sports operator Betr, also has six of BetMGM’s top 25 most-bet bouts and last fought in July, beating Mike Perry by TKO the day he was supposed to fight Tyson.
Large wagers
Caesars reported a few big bets on Tuesday that have already been placed on the fight.
A Nevada bettor wagered $25,000 at William Hill on Tyson to win at +190.
One $5,500 bet (-275) in Nevada and another $5,000 wager (-240) in North Carolina have come in on Paul while another William Hill Nevada customer put down $5,000 on Tyson by KO/TKO/DQ at +225 for a healthy payout.
