A controversial predictions outcome platform has seen more than $200 million invested in its March Madness markets.
Kalshi teamed up with trading platform Robinhood to offer sports “contracts” that act like bets across all 50 U.S. states for the first time.
Through the first two rounds of the men’s NCAA tournament, Kalshi’s markets had taken in nearly $195 million by Monday afternoon. Another $12.8 million worth of prediction contracts have been purchased on women’s tournament markets.
March Madness is a sports betting event that’s estimated to generate $3.1 billion in wagers this month.
Kalshi burst onto the scene with prediction markets during the 2024 U.S. Election and won a court battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That led to the platform offering Super Bowl and other sports markets.
Kalshi or Robinhood users have access to a men’s college basketball champion market as well as which teams will make it into the Elite Eight.
There are also Sweet 16 game-by-game markets. For example, a $100 contract on Arkansas would pay out $295 if the Razorbacks beat Texas Tech. Arkansas is a 5.5-point underdog for Thursday’s game at U.S. sportsbooks and +190 on the moneyline at BetMGM.
Adding guardrails
Kalshi announced on Monday that it’s adding game integrity and responsible gaming to its platform. The company partnered with sports betting watchdog firm IC360 a month ago to monitor its prediction markets. IC360 provides sports leagues, sports betting operators, and U.S. state gaming regulators with suspicious activity surveillance.
Kalshi will be using ProhiBet, a monitoring service that stops athletes, coaches, team personnel, and others associated with games from placing bets at sportsbooks. IC360 will now keep those parties from buying sports prediction contracts.
During Problem Gambling Awareness Month, Kalshi has added three responsible gaming products that include a voluntary opt-out that will keep users from trading. Kalshi has also instituted trading breaks and funding caps for users through its customer protection hub.
“For sports specifically, we are excited to announce our partnership with IC360, whose data will enhance our Customer Protection Hub’s ability to prevent bad actors and report them to the leagues and relevant regulatory bodies,” Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour said on social media site X. “We hope that our Hub sets a new standard for customer protection for the industry and encourages others to follow suit.”
No important financial innovation has ever been created without critics.
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 24, 2025
• Credit cards were going to drive “reckless consumer spending”
• Mutual funds were seen merely as a way to speculate and risk people’s savings
• ETFs were feared because they could increase volatility… pic.twitter.com/iUsHcog9SK
Going after prediction markets
Kalshi’s accessibility across the U.S. has come under fire in recent months as sports betting is legalized and regulated at the state level. Kalshi is currently regulated by the CFTC, which has not been in favor of the prediction markets.
Nevada regulators sent a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi earlier this month, claiming that the platform violates the Silver State’s gaming laws. However, an extension was given and Kalshi is still operating in Nevada.
The Indian Gaming Association called Kalshi’s platform a threat to tribal nations’ gaming exclusivity compacts.
“The IGA strongly urges the CFTC to make it clear that Sports Contracts are prohibited from being listed or made available for clearing or trading,” the nonprofit gaming group wrote in a letter last month. “Trading of Sports Contracts is gaming, violates state and federal law, and is contrary to public policy for various reasons.”
The American Gaming Association, a U.S. industry trade group, has also said that prediction markets operating in legal sports betting states are an “unfair economic threat” to regulated sportsbooks.
